The US is investigating whether Waaree Energies Ltd., India’s largest solar panel maker, evaded anti-dumping and countervailing duties on solar cells from China and other Southeast Asian nations. Most Read from Bloomberg US Customs and Border Protection has started a formal investigation of Waaree and Waaree Solar Americas Inc. and imposed interim measures because there is reasonable suspicion the company evaded duties when bringing merchandise into the US, according to a public notice by the agency o ...

Group 1 - First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) is one of the best performing stocks in the S&P 500 over the last three months [1] - JPMorgan has reaffirmed First Solar as a "top pick" and set a price target of $241 for December 2025, recommending the purchase of September call spreads to capitalize on potential upside [1][2] - The company benefits from a strong backlog that supports medium-term growth and has a competitive edge due to its U.S. production, which results in more U.S. credits and lower tariff exposure [2] Group 2 - First Solar is recognized as a global supplier of sustainably produced eco-efficient solar modules, positioning itself well in the solar technology market [2] - While First Solar is seen as a viable investment, there are opinions that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential with less downside risk [3]

Core Viewpoint - First Solar Inc. (FSLR) has shown strong stock performance, with a 3.6% increase over the past month, outperforming the S&P 500 and the broader Oil-Energy sector, but lagging behind the solar industry [1][9]. Financial Performance - FSLR reported second-quarter earnings of $3.18 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.68 by 18.7% [4]. - The company's net sales reached $1.10 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate by 6.6% and reflecting an 8.6% year-over-year improvement [4]. - FSLR has raised its sales guidance for 2025 to a range of $4.90-$5.70 billion, up from the previous range of $4.50-$5.50 billion, indicating management's confidence in future performance [5]. Production and Capacity Expansion - In Q2 2025, FSLR produced 4.2 gigawatts (GW) of solar modules and aims to exceed 25 GW of annual manufacturing capacity by the end of 2026 [6]. - The company plans to invest $1.0-$1.5 billion in 2025 for new plants, site expansions, and equipment upgrades, supporting expected module shipments of 16.7-19.3 GW by the end of 2025 [7]. Long-term Growth Prospects - As of June 30, 2025, FSLR has signed contracts for 61.9 GW of future module sales, projected to generate revenues of $18.5 billion through 2030 [10]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FSLR's long-term earnings growth rate is 33.4%, outperforming the industry average of 22.9% [11]. Near-term Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q3 2025 revenues and earnings indicates improvements of 74.2% and 47.4%, respectively, from the prior year [12]. - Current estimates for FSLR's sales and earnings show solid growth trends, with significant year-over-year growth expected [13][14]. Valuation Metrics - FSLR's forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 3.54X, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 1.23X, indicating that investors may be paying a higher price relative to expected sales growth [15]. Market Context - Other solar stocks, such as SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) and Array Technologies (ARRY), have also performed well, with one-month price gains of 32% and 50.1%, respectively [2].

Core Viewpoint - T1 Energy Inc. is experiencing significant growth in domestic solar interest, driven by increased commercial sales, demand from hyperscale AI projects, and advancements in their G2_Austin solar cell project, indicating a timely opportunity to build a domestic solar supply chain [3]. Q2 2025 Results Overview - T1 Energy reported a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $32.8 million, or $0.21 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $27.0 million, or $0.19 per diluted share for Q2 2024 [9][24]. - The company achieved total net sales of $132.8 million for Q2 2025, with a gross profit of $32.8 million [24]. - Cumulative production at G1_Dallas surpassed 1 GW in Q2 2025, with over 1.2 GW produced during the year [9]. Business Developments - T1 signed a transformative agreement with Corning Incorporated to purchase solar wafers, enhancing its domestic solar supply chain and compliance efforts [9]. - A 437 MW sales agreement was signed with a major U.S. utility, leading to T1 being sold out for 2025 based on a production plan of 2.6 GW [9]. - The G2_Austin project, a $850 million investment for a 5 GW solar cell plant, is on track to start construction in Q3/Q4 2025, with production expected to begin in Q4 2026 [9]. Financial Guidance - T1 maintains its 2025 EBITDA guidance of $25 - $50 million, although risks are skewed to the downside due to uncertainties related to tariffs and supply chain impacts [9]. - The company reported cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash of $46.7 million as of June 30, 2025 [9]. Strategic Focus - T1 is prioritizing compliance with FEOC regulations to maintain access to Section 45X Production Tax Credits following the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill [9]. - The company is winding down its legacy European operations while exploring value optimization opportunities for its European portfolio [9].

Core Insights - Canadian Solar (CSIQ) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.76 per share, a significant increase of 3700% year-over-year, with revenues projected at $1.92 billion, reflecting a 17.3% increase compared to the same period last year [1] Earnings Estimates - Over the last 30 days, there have been no revisions in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter, indicating that analysts have maintained their initial forecasts [2] - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3] Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate 'CSI Solar Revenues- Solar modules' to be $1.18 billion, a decrease of 2.5% from the prior-year quarter [5] - 'CSI Solar Revenues- Solar system kits' are forecasted to reach $236.75 million, an increase of 106.1% year-over-year [5] - 'CSI Solar Revenues- Battery storage solutions' are expected to be $354.88 million, reflecting a 57.2% increase from the previous year [5] - The consensus for 'CSI Solar Revenues- EPC and others' is $50.29 million, indicating a 38.1% increase from the year-ago quarter [6] - Total 'CSI Solar Revenues' is projected to reach $1.75 billion, representing a 10.3% year-over-year increase [6] - 'Recurrent Energy Revenues- Total' is expected to be $177.92 million, a substantial increase of 252.1% from the prior-year quarter [6] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Canadian Solar have returned -1.6%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has increased by 2.5% [7] - Currently, CSIQ holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), suggesting potential underperformance relative to the overall market in the near future [7]

Core Viewpoint - First Solar Inc. (FSLR) has shown strong stock performance, gaining 29.4% over the past three months, outperforming both the solar industry and broader market indices [1][9]. Company Performance - FSLR's stock performance is attributed to aggressive expansion plans, including the start of operations at its fourth U.S. manufacturing facility in Q2 2025 [4]. - The company plans to add approximately four gigawatts (GW) of new capacity, aiming for an annual manufacturing capacity exceeding 25 GW by the end of 2026 [5]. - FSLR has entered contracts for the future sale of 66.1 GW of solar modules, valued at $19.8 billion, expected to contribute to revenue through 2030 [10]. Market Outlook - The growth prospects for FSLR are supported by ongoing capacity expansion and a strong demand outlook for solar energy [7]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FSLR's long-term earnings growth rate is 34.5%, surpassing the industry's growth rate of 23.1% [11]. Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates revenue growth of 18.2% and 18.3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [15]. - Current estimates for FSLR's 2025 and 2026 revenues are $4.97 billion and $5.88 billion, respectively [16]. Valuation Metrics - FSLR shares are trading at a premium, with a forward Price/Sales (P/S F12M) ratio of 3.16, compared to the industry average of 1.27 [18]. - Competitors Canadian Solar (CSIQ) and SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) are trading at lower P/S ratios of 0.13 and 1.30, respectively [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating for Daqo, while Xinyi Solar and Flat Glass are rated Neutral, and LONGi and Tongwei are rated Underweight [31][24]. Core Insights - The Chinese solar industry is facing challenges due to aggressive capacity expansion, leading to significant cash losses for many producers. The government is expected to intervene to address low-price competition and promote the exit of outdated production capacity [3][6][5]. - The WIND Solar Power Index, which includes 30 major A-share solar stocks, saw a 3% increase on July 2, 2025, following President Xi's remarks on potential supply-side reforms, while HK-listed solar stocks surged by approximately 10% [5][2]. - Current valuations for major A-share solar manufacturers are at 1.6x forward P/B multiple, while H-share solar glass makers trade at 0.8x, indicating a less attractive risk/reward scenario compared to previous supply-side reform cycles [23][24]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - Solar module prices have decreased from approximately Rmb 2.0/W in 2022 to Rmb 0.7/W in July 2025, and polysilicon prices dropped from Rmb 300/kg to Rmb 35/kg, primarily due to an unbalanced supply and demand outlook [6][3]. - The majority of solar manufacturers are currently generating net losses, with over 50% of module sales volume directed to overseas markets, effectively subsidizing global energy transition efforts [6][3]. Trading Implications - The sector has historically rebounded by an average of 7% during four previous instances of government intervention news, but subsequent de-rating trends have been observed [16][4]. - The report suggests a cautious approach to trading in the solar sector, as the market may already be aware of the difficulties in implementing effective policy interventions [16][24]. Company Analysis - Daqo is highlighted as a standout investment opportunity due to its undemanding valuation at 0.2x FY25 P/BV, while LONGi and Tongwei are viewed as unattractive compared to peers even under a potential supply-side reform scenario [24][31]. - The report ranks companies based on risk/reward considerations, with Daqo at the top, followed by Xinyi Solar and Flat Glass, while LONGi and Tongwei are at the bottom of the list [24][31].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Longi and "Neutral" ratings to Daqo and Xinjiang Daqo New Energy, while TZE and Tongwei are rated as "Sell" [28][17][20]. Core Insights - The profitability inflection for the solar industry is expected to be delayed due to slower demand growth, with normalized earnings projected to remain low. The industry is anticipated to reach a cyclical bottom in 2025E, with a demand growth slowdown in China expected to average +6% CAGR from 2025E to 2030E, compared to +55% from 2020 to 2024 [1][15]. - The report highlights that the solar industry's capacity utilization is expected to decline to 59% from 2025E to 2030E, which is 15 percentage points lower than previous estimates. This is attributed to existing capacity cuts and a deceleration in demand growth [10][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of a healthy balance sheet and strong R&D capabilities for companies navigating the cyclical bottom of the industry [1][14]. Industry Capex Trend and Capacity Addition - Capex spending in the solar industry is projected to decline further, with a forecasted -55% year-over-year decrease in solar capex for 2025E, compared to a previous estimate of -34% [2]. - The report notes that 30GW of module capacity has been terminated, including 15GW by Longi, and 12GW of module capacity has been delayed from listed players [2]. Demand Dynamics - Solar demand growth is expected to slow significantly, with a projected 25% decrease in global demand from 2026E to 2030E compared to previous estimates. This is primarily due to new regulations that limit on-grid access for large-scale solar projects and remove guaranteed on-grid volumes and prices for renewable projects [7]. - The report anticipates a rebound in China’s demand by 14% year-over-year in 2027E after a decline of -17% in 2026E, driven by better economics for commercial and industrial battery energy storage systems [7]. Capacity and Utilization - The report estimates a 17% cut in end-2024 module capacity by the end of 2026E, influenced by market access constraints and cash burn [3][10]. - The capacity utilization in China is projected to be 53% in 2025E and 52% in 2026E, with a slight recovery to 59% by 2027E [8]. Company-Specific Insights - Longi is highlighted as a leading integrated module player with strong R&D capabilities, expected to benefit from upstream price contractions and improved ROE due to Back Contact technology [16][17]. - TZE is rated as "Sell" due to anticipated headwinds from a shrinking addressable market and a stretched balance sheet amid aggressive downstream investment plans [19][20].

Core Insights - T1 Energy Inc. has selected Yates Construction for preconstruction services for its $850 million G2_Austin 5 GW Solar Cell Facility, supported by U.S. tariffs and policies promoting advanced manufacturing [1][2] - The Milam County commissioners have approved a long-term tax abatement for T1 Energy, contingent on meeting employment and investment targets, with the facility expected to create up to 1,800 full-time jobs by the end of 2026 [2][6] - The G2_Austin project is part of T1's strategy to establish a domestic solar and battery supply chain, addressing the demand for U.S. solar cells and modules using TOPCon technology [3][4] Company Strategy - T1 Energy aims to build a reliable and low-cost energy supply chain in the U.S. through its solar and battery manufacturing facilities [3][8] - The G2_Austin facility will complement the existing G1_Dallas 5 GW Solar Module Facility, enhancing T1's capacity to meet customer demand [3][8] Economic Impact - The project is expected to invigorate the local economy by providing high-quality jobs and promoting sustainable growth in Milam County [6][4] - T1 Energy's initiatives align with the broader goal of enhancing American energy independence and manufacturing capabilities [4][8]

Core Insights - Canadian Solar, Inc. (CSIQ) reported a first-quarter 2025 loss of $1.07 per share, which is an improvement compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.50 per share, but a decline from the previous year's earnings of 19 cents per share [1] - The company's revenues for the quarter were $1.20 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.09 billion by 9.9%, although this represents a 10% decrease from the year-ago figure of $1.33 billion [1][2] Revenue and Sales Performance - The year-over-year revenue decline was primarily attributed to lower sales of battery energy storage systems and solar modules [2] - Solar module shipments reached 6.9 gigawatts (GW), surpassing the company's guidance of 6.4-6.7 GW, and reflecting a 9.4% increase year over year [3] Operational Metrics - Canadian Solar's gross margin was reported at 11.7%, exceeding the guided range of 9-11%, but down 730 basis points from the previous year due to reduced sales volumes and trade-related duties [3] - Total operating expenses decreased by 4.1% year over year to $195.3 million, attributed to the absence of impairment charges and lower shipping and handling costs [4] Financial Position - As of March 31, 2025, Canadian Solar's cash and cash equivalents stood at $1.58 billion, down from $1.70 billion at the end of 2024 [5] - Long-term borrowings increased to $3.02 billion from $2.73 billion as of December 31, 2024 [5] Future Guidance - For Q2 2025, Canadian Solar anticipates total module shipments between 7.5-8.0 GW, including approximately 500 MW for its projects, with expected revenues in the range of $1.9-$2.1 billion [6] - The company projects a gross margin between 23% and 25% for the second quarter [6] - For the full year 2025, total module shipments are expected to be between 25-30 GW, with total revenues projected in the range of $6.1-$7.1 billion [7]