Core Viewpoint - American Financial Group (AFG) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.17 per share, reflecting a 21.4% decline year-over-year, while revenues are forecasted to increase by 2.9% to $1.94 billion [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 0.2% over the past 30 days, indicating analysts have reassessed their projections [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate 'Revenues- P&C insurance net earned premiums' at $1.73 billion, indicating a 12% year-over-year increase [5]. - 'Revenues- Net investment income' is projected to reach $203.73 million, reflecting a 2.9% increase year-over-year [5]. - 'Specialty Casualty- Net earned premium' is expected to be $759.90 million, showing a 4.1% increase from the previous year [5]. - 'Property and Transportation- Net earned premium' is forecasted at $675.75 million, suggesting a significant 31.7% year-over-year increase [6]. Loss and LAE Ratios - The estimated 'Property and Transportation - Loss and LAE Ratio' is 66.8%, up from 59.2% in the previous year [6]. - The 'Property and Casualty - Combined Ratio - Specialty' is projected at 94.7%, compared to 90.1% in the same quarter last year [7]. - 'Specialty Casualty - Loss and LAE Ratio' is expected to be 62.8%, slightly up from 62.5% year-over-year [7]. - 'Specialty Financial - Loss and LAE Ratio' is projected at 44.4%, compared to 40.2% in the previous year [8]. Underwriting Expense Ratios - The 'Specialty Casualty - Underwriting Expense Ratio' is expected to be 27.7%, up from 27.3% in the same quarter last year [8]. - 'Specialty Financial - Underwriting Expense Ratio' is projected at 46.9%, compared to 46.1% in the previous year [9]. - The 'Property and Transportation - Underwriting Expense Ratio' is expected to be 30.1%, slightly up from 29.8% year-over-year [9]. Market Performance - Over the past month, shares of American Financial have returned +6.5%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.4% change [10].