| | | --- | | YONGAN FUTURES | | --- | | 示 | 大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2026/01/27 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.213 | 4.496 | 3.435 | 2.866 | 3.465 | 3.228 | 0.264 | 3.461 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 2.230 | 6.167 | 1.821 | - | 4.818 | 4.590 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.591 | 3. ...

Core Insights - U.S. government funding has lapsed, leading to furloughs across agencies and likely delaying the September jobs report, which is crucial for rate-cut expectations later this month [4] - The market is experiencing increased volatility, as indicated by the VIX gauge rising towards 17, while stock index futures have retreated from recent highs [3][4] - The shutdown is causing uncertainty in economic data releases, pushing investors to rely on private sector indicators, which may lead to amplified market swings [4] Market Reactions - Wall Street stocks ended higher, nearing record levels, despite the government shutdown, reflecting a generally nonchalant market behavior during previous closures [2] - Gold prices have rallied to new records, while the dollar has softened, indicating a shift in investor sentiment amid the uncertainty [3] - Japanese equities saw a decline of about 1% after an 11% surge in the previous quarter, influenced by hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan [4] Economic Indicators - The lack of timely macroeconomic data due to the government shutdown could lead to increased volatility in rates and foreign exchange markets [4] - The ADP employment report is gaining significance as the nonfarm payrolls report is likely off the calendar, with previous data showing a marginal rise in job openings but a decline in hiring [4] - Core euro zone inflation readings for September were slightly higher than expected, which may influence the European Central Bank's future policy decisions [3]