J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 04 November 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Utilities & Renewables Blog NEA vows to intensify offshore wind development in 15- FYP; remain cautious on China thermal power utilities despi ...

Summary of Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables (NBO) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables (603606.SS) - **Industry**: Offshore Wind Power and Cable Manufacturing Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Net Profit**: Rmb441 million, representing a **53.1% year-over-year (yoy)** increase and a **129.6% quarter-over-quarter (qoq)** increase [1][2][13] - **Revenue**: Rmb3,066 million in 3Q25, up **16.5% yoy** and **34.2% qoq** [2][12] - **Gross Profit Margin**: Increased to **22.3%**, up **1.3 percentage points (ppts) yoy** and **6.6 ppts qoq** [2][13] - **Backlog**: Rmb19.5 billion as of October 18, 2025, with Rmb11.7 billion from submarine and high-voltage land cable orders [3][14] Market Dynamics - **Offshore Wind Demand**: China aims to add at least **15GW of offshore wind capacity annually from 2026 to 2030**, nearly double the average of **8GW per year from 2021 to 2025** [1][4] - **Installed Capacity Targets**: The goal is to reach **1,300GW by 2030**, **2,000GW by 2035**, and **5,000GW by 2060**, significantly higher than previous targets [4] Order and Delivery Insights - **Strong Order Flow**: NBO's backlog increased by **1.1 times yoy** with a significant portion from high-margin products [3][14] - **Delivery Expectations**: Anticipated increased deliveries in **4Q25 and 2026**, including exports for the Inch Cape Offshore wind project in the UK [3][18] Earnings Forecast - **Earnings Revision**: 2025-2027 earnings estimates raised by **4-8%** due to higher submarine cable sales [1] - **Target Price**: Increased to **Rmb81.00/share**, representing a **37% upside** from the current price of **Rmb66.20** [6][9] Additional Insights - **Cost Reduction**: The unit capital expenditure (capex) for offshore wind projects decreased to **Rmb9,000-12,500/kW** in 2024, down from **Rmb9,500-14,000/kW** in 2023 [29] - **Competitive Pricing**: The average levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for new offshore wind power has reduced to **Rmb0.3/kWh**, making it competitive with market tariffs [29] Conclusion - NBO is positioned to benefit from the accelerating demand for offshore wind power in China, supported by a robust order backlog and favorable market conditions. The company's financial performance in 3Q25 reflects strong growth, and future earnings are expected to improve further due to increased submarine cable sales and project deliveries.

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Wind Power Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **wind power industry in China**, highlighting a significant turnaround after a down-cycle from 2022 to 2024, attributed to self-regulation and robust demand [3][12][39]. Key Points Demand and Installation Forecasts - **Domestic demand** is expected to remain resilient during the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP), with forecasts of annual installations of **106GW for 2025**, **103GW for 2026**, and **105GW for 2027**, potentially reaching **~120GW per annum from 2028 to 2030**, including **15-20GW offshore annually** [4][12][45]. - Public tendering for wind projects was robust, with **21.5GW tendered** from June to August 2025, marking a **21% year-on-year increase** [13][45]. Industry Dynamics - The industry has achieved a **price and profitability turnaround** without significant government intervention, driven by: 1. **Increased demand** for wind installations, with a **79% year-on-year rise** in new installations in the first seven months of 2025 [40]. 2. **Recovery in bidding prices** for Wind Turbine Generators (WTG), with onshore prices rising **8%** and offshore prices **12%** in 2025 [52]. 3. **Supply chain consolidation** and improved quality focus among manufacturers due to past losses and accidents [15][41]. Investment Preferences - Preference for **key WTG component suppliers** and **submarine cable manufacturers** over WTG Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) due to better margin recovery prospects [5][14]. - **ZTT** is highlighted as a preferred investment due to its strong valuation and expected growth in submarine cable deliveries [20]. Company-Specific Insights - **Sinoma S&T** upgraded to Overweight (OW) with a price target of **Rmb48.2**, reflecting a **98.9% increase in net profit estimates for 2025** and **117.1% for 2026** due to recovery in gross profit margins across its business segments [19][21]. - **Ningbo Orient** remains OW despite a **39.4% reduction in net profit estimates for 2025**, with a price target of **Rmb69.63** [22][23]. - **Riyue** and **Goldwind** are maintained at Equal Weight (EW) with adjusted price targets reflecting lower profit forecasts due to rising costs and reduced sales expectations [24][25][29]. Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include **delays in offshore project approvals**, **competition affecting offshore WTG prices**, and **increased costs for outsourced machining** [16][24][29][37]. - The industry faces challenges from **overseas shipment growth slowing down** and **delayed revenue recognition** for key offshore projects [30][32]. Conclusion - The wind power industry in China is positioned for a strong recovery, driven by robust demand and improved pricing dynamics. Key players in the supply chain are expected to benefit from ongoing margin recovery and favorable market conditions, making them attractive investment opportunities in the near term [42][43].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co., Ltd. (ZTT) emphasizes its commitment to Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) principles, integrating them into corporate strategy and operations to promote sustainable development and social progress [1][11]. Environmental Initiatives - ZTT has launched the Green Low Carbon Manufacturing (GLCM) action plan, adding 5 new national green factories, totaling 13, and aims to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 130,000 tons through the use of over 190 million kWh of renewable electricity [3][4]. - The company has achieved a compliance rate of 100% for ISO 14001 environmental management system certification across its operational manufacturing companies [3]. Social Responsibility - ZTT focuses on employee well-being, providing employment opportunities for people with disabilities, and promoting diversity and inclusion within the workforce [1][3]. - The company has a 100% signing rate for collective contracts and has organized 278 safety drills, emphasizing its commitment to employee rights and safety [3][4]. Governance and Compliance - ZTT adheres to principles of transparency, compliance, and efficiency, optimizing its corporate governance structure and strengthening risk management to build trust with shareholders and investors [1][3]. - The company has joined the Science-Based Carbon Target Initiative (SBTi) to establish scientifically grounded emission reduction paths, demonstrating its commitment to climate action [3][5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, ZTT reported revenues of approximately RMB 48.05 billion, with operating costs of about RMB 45.27 billion, and employee wages and benefits totaling around RMB 2.86 billion [14]. - The company has maintained steady growth in revenue and controlled operating costs while increasing investments in R&D and environmental protection [12][14]. Technological Innovation - ZTT has established an "Energy and Carbon Cloud Platform" to enhance its green management system, integrating energy monitoring and carbon footprint accounting [3][4]. - The company has pioneered the "Intellectual Property Bank" platform, attracting over 11,000 participants and fostering a culture of innovation [3][4]. Global Strategy - ZTT has expanded its global footprint with 14 overseas marketing centers and 5 factories in countries such as India and Brazil, enhancing its international competitiveness [8][9]. - The company aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2055, aligning its strategic goals with China's national targets for carbon peaking by 2030 [4][5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: China Utilities and Renewables [2][46] - **Event**: Global China Summit 2025, involving discussions with over 20 companies in the sector [2] Core Insights 1. **Offshore Wind and Smart Grid**: - Offshore wind development is expected to see significant growth due to low penetration in China, with projected earnings growth of over 30% for Orient Cable from 2025 to 2027 [3] - Domestic demand for power grids is anticipated to grow by at least 8-10% this year, despite uncertainties in commercial and industrial demand [3] - Huaming's products are competitively priced at one-third or less than foreign products, with over 80% of components self-manufactured, enhancing capacity expansion efficiency [3] 2. **Emerging Market Growth**: - Companies like Arctech and Deye are optimistic about demand growth from Emerging Markets, particularly in the Middle East, with expected order increases of over 25-30% for Arctech [4] - Chinese manufacturers have increased their market share in non-China markets from 5% in 2020 to 39% in 2024 [4] 3. **Earnings Visibility and Power Reforms**: - Earnings visibility for renewable energy operators is diverging due to power reforms, with Yangtze Power benefiting from stable tariffs and potential price increases due to market liberalization [5] - Weak coal prices are expected to benefit thermal Independent Power Producers (IPPs) [5] 4. **Gas Utilities and Solar Sector**: - Gas utilities are showing signs of recovery, but there are concerns about tariff impacts affecting industrial volume growth [9] - The solar value chain is facing challenges due to overcapacity, with a negative outlook for companies like LONGi and Tongwei [9] Investment Recommendations - **Top Picks**: - Orient Cable: Benefiting from offshore wind demand and submarine cable market [10] - Goldwind: Expected profitability improvement from rising exports [10] - Huaming Equipment: Key beneficiary of global transformer capacity expansion [10] - ENN Energy: Anticipated strong growth and potential privatization support [10] - **Avoid**: - LONGi Green: Facing deteriorating profitability due to increased competition [10] - Tongwei: High exposure to a multi-year poly downcycle [10] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of selective investment in gas utilities and cautions against the solar value chain due to ongoing challenges [9] - The overall trends in the utilities and renewables sector are seen as positive, with specific companies highlighted for their growth potential and market positioning [2][4][5][9]