以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者有色组 紫金天风期货研究所 . 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 铜：铜矿扰动层出不穷，中短期难以得到有效缓解，加之长期消费增长叙事依然表现优良，且从历史表现来看，铜价相对其他大宗商 品的抗冲击性更优，故铜也成为本轮资金配置青睐的品种。 美元与美联储：市场更担忧美联储的公信力，而非单纯的美元利率。如果美元继续丧失"价值锚"地位，则实物资产将表现更优。 当下的铜市，陷入宽幅运行局面：一方面铜矿供应端紧张推升价格，但另一方面中美贸易战反复又迅速打压铜短期需求预期，令市 场避险情绪重归。 01 美元的信任危机 近期，黄金突破4000美元/盎司，白银创下历史新高，铜价突破10000美元/吨，全球投资者纷纷涌向硬资产避险。而这轮行情的核 心驱动在于对美元作为"价值储藏"的信任正在瓦解。 白银：近一个月，伦敦银价单月涨幅超20%。对比黄金的稳步上涨，白银更像火箭起飞。白银市场间如L-C、L-S价差都拉大到2美元/ 盎司以上，历史罕见。同时，白银1个月租赁利率高达33%，基本陷入"有价无市"的状态。不过，随着白银价格被高流动性推升，其 后可能吸引回流，行情或进入"终局阶段"。 文 | 刘 ...

Financial Performance - Hawkins' 2025 revenue reached $9744 million[10] - The company's 5-year EPS CAGR is 25%[10] - Net income in fiscal year 2025 was $843 million, with a 24% CAGR[67] - Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal year 2025 was $1675 million, with a 21% CAGR[69] - Diluted EPS in fiscal year 2025 was $403, with a 25% CAGR[74] - Q1 Fiscal Year 2026 revenue reached a record $2933 million, a 15% increase year-over-year[81] - Q1 Fiscal Year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $574 million, a 13% increase year-over-year[81] Business Segments - Water Treatment accounted for 46% of revenue, totaling $4465 million[15] - Food & Health Sciences accounted for 33% of revenue, totaling $3225 million[15] - Industrial Solutions accounted for 21% of revenue, totaling $2054 million[15] Capital Allocation - The company has consistently returned capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases[32] - Hawkins has a track record of 40 consecutive years of cash dividends[33]

Summary of Conference Call on Copper Industry Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the copper industry, focusing on supply dynamics, production challenges, and market trends related to copper and its derivatives [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Maintenance on Copper Prices** - The early maintenance and production cuts by Tongling Nonferrous Metals have a minimal short-term impact on copper prices and related sectors. Maintenance typically occurs in Q2, with a larger scale expected in April [2]. 2. **Reasons for No Production Cuts Despite Losses** - Smelters are not reducing production despite losses due to several factors: - Current spot market TC prices are at -15 to -16 USD per pound, leading to losses exceeding 2,000 RMB per ton. - Long-term market prices are around 20 USD per pound, allowing for some profit despite negative margins. - Byproducts like sulfuric acid contribute approximately 1,000 RMB profit, and improved recovery rates enhance profitability [3]. 3. **Record High Electrolytic Copper Production** - Domestic electrolytic copper production reached record highs due to: - An increase of about 500,000 tons in global new mine supply in 2024. - Support from imported scrap copper and high inventory levels. - Full-capacity production leading to economies of scale [5]. 4. **Future Supply Tightness** - Supply tightness is expected to manifest in both mining and raw material sectors: - Limited new global mine supply and declining port inventories will tighten supply. - Domestic scrap copper supply is expected to see slight increases but remains constrained overall [6]. 5. **Policy Impact on Scrap Copper Production** - The cancellation of subsidies for recycled copper and aluminum enterprises led to a significant drop in scrap copper production from June to September 2024, but production rebounded in Q4 [7]. 6. **Trends in Scrap Copper Market Growth** - The growth rate of scrap copper production in China was significantly impacted by the pandemic in 2022, with a recovery of nearly 20% in 2023. Future growth is expected to stabilize at 1.5% to 2% [8]. 7. **Effects of Reverse Invoicing Policy** - The reverse invoicing policy has increased procurement costs for small and medium enterprises, leading to a widening price gap between compliant and non-compliant scrap copper [9]. 8. **Challenges in Importing Scrap Copper** - The U.S. plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported scrap copper, significantly raising costs and affecting China's imports, which currently account for about 20% of total imports [10]. 9. **Global Supply Pressure in 2025** - Global supply of scrap copper and minerals is expected to face significant pressure due to limited import growth and constrained new mine supply, particularly from South America [11]. 10. **Overcapacity in Smelting** - Global smelting capacity is expanding faster than ore supply, leading to potential overcapacity issues. Domestic smelting capacity is expected to increase by 1 million to 1.1 million tons in 2025 [12]. 11. **Stable Demand Drivers** - Demand remains stable with growth in domestic power grid construction, home appliances, and electric vehicles, offsetting declines in the real estate sector. Overall demand in China is projected to grow by 2% to 3% [13][14]. 12. **Investment Recommendations** - Investment focus is recommended on companies with lower competition and higher elasticity, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, as well as Minmetals Resources in Hong Kong, which is expected to have significant growth in 2025 [15].