Economic Impact - The extension of the tariff suspension for an additional 90 days is crucial for American businesses, particularly in sectors like agriculture and high-tech products, which rely heavily on the Chinese market for sales [1][3] - The trade friction has led to significant income reductions for American farmers due to blocked exports to China, highlighting the importance of maintaining competitive access to the Chinese market [1] Political Considerations - Trump's decision reflects a balance between demonstrating a tough stance on China and avoiding excessive confrontation that could harm U.S. interests, especially in light of rising consumer prices due to tariff costs [3] - The U.S. government recognizes the necessity of cooperation with China on global issues such as climate change and public health, influencing the decision to extend the tariff suspension [3] China's Response - China maintains a firm and rational stance, emphasizing mutual respect and equal benefits in trade discussions, and is committed to defending its legitimate rights against U.S. tariffs [4][9] - China aims to promote healthy and stable bilateral trade relations through continued negotiations based on equality and mutual respect [4] Brazil's Position - Brazil has consistently opposed U.S. tariff policies and has refused to compromise under pressure, emphasizing the need for sincere negotiations from the U.S. [6] - Brazilian President Lula's communication with China following the tariff extension indicates Brazil's desire for support in countering U.S. trade policies and to strengthen ties within the BRICS framework [7][9] Cooperation Opportunities - China has expressed strong support for Brazil in defending its sovereignty and rights, indicating a willingness to enhance bilateral trade and cooperation to mitigate the impacts of U.S. tariffs [9] - The collaboration between China and Brazil aims to expand trade volumes and optimize trade structures, leveraging China's market demand to benefit Brazilian exports [9]

Group 1 - The geopolitical landscape has experienced significant turbulence, with the U.S. adjusting its economic policies towards China and India, drawing global media and investor attention [1] - Trump's decision to delay tariffs on Chinese oil purchases is influenced by concerns over rising global oil prices and inflationary pressures in the U.S. [2][3] - Rubio's comments highlight the potential global energy price repercussions of sanctions on China, indicating a shift in U.S. policy towards China [5] Group 2 - India has been adversely affected by U.S. tariffs, with a cumulative 50% tariff on Indian goods due to oil purchases from Russia, impacting over $42 billion in exports [5] - The U.S. has accused India of "arbitraging" Russian oil, which has led to widespread discontent in India's political and business circles [7] - Modi's government remains firm against U.S. pressure, emphasizing the protection of Indian farmers amidst ongoing trade negotiations [9] Group 3 - The U.S. and India have been unable to resolve agricultural trade issues, with five rounds of negotiations failing to break the deadlock [6] - China's dominant position in the global energy market is a critical factor in U.S. decision-making, with projections indicating that by 2025, China will account for 27% of global crude oil imports [13] - The U.S. strategy towards India is seen as a double standard, as it seeks to use India as a counterbalance to China without fully elevating India's status [16] Group 4 - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade disputes are reshaping global economic relationships, with the upcoming SCO summit being a focal point for potential India-China cooperation [19] - Financial markets are closely monitoring these developments, with potential volatility in Asia-Pacific markets if U.S.-China trade tensions escalate [21]

Core Viewpoint - Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, has completely liquidated its holdings in Chinese stocks listed in the U.S., including Alibaba and Pinduoduo, amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions [2][4]. Group 1 - As of March 31, Bridgewater held 16 U.S.-listed stocks, including Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and Baidu, with a total market value of $1.49 billion. By June 30, the fund's holdings in Chinese stocks were reduced to zero [4][5]. - The U.S. government announced reciprocal tariffs in April, with tariffs on Chinese goods peaking at 145%. Negotiations in mid-May led to a mutual agreement to lower tariffs by 115%, but ongoing trade friction has raised investment risks in Chinese stocks [4][5]. - Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater, known for his pro-China stance, has seen his influence wane after stepping back from investment decisions in September 2022 and recently resigning from the board [5].

目 录 CONTENTS 1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 2 期货市场环境：宏观、比价、基差 3 螺纹钢供需概况 4 后市展望 国信期货研究所 第 一部 国信期货研究所 供需边际转弱 关注限产落地情况 ----国信期货螺纹钢周报 2025年8月17日 国信期货研究所 P a rt 分 1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 1.1 近期重要信息概览 国信期货研究所 经济数据 政策信息 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1. 国家统计局数据显示，原煤生产有所下降。7月份，规上工业原煤产量3.8亿吨，同比下降3.8%；日均产量1229万吨。1—7月份，规上工 业原煤产量27.8亿吨，同比增长3.8%。 2. 1—7月份，全国房地产开发投资53580亿元，同比下降12.0%；其中，住宅投资41208亿元，下降10.9%。 1—7月份，房地产开发企业房 屋施工面积638731万平方米，同比下降9.2%。其中，住宅施工面积445107万平方米，下降9.4%。房屋新开工面积35206万平方米，下降 19.4%。其中，住宅新开工面积25881万平方米，下降18.3%。房屋竣 ...

Economic Data Summary - In July, economic data showed that external demand was stronger than internal demand, with production growth outpacing demand growth. The industrial output and service production index in constant prices grew by 5.7% and 5.8% year-on-year, respectively, while prices remained at a low level for the year [2][3][4] - The retail sales in July increased by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in the previous month. Fixed asset investment for the first seven months saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.2 percentage points to 1.6%, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments all showing a downward trend [3][4] Automotive Sales Trends - In early August, automotive sales turned negative, with retail sales of passenger cars from August 1 to 10 reaching 452,000 units, a 4% decrease compared to the same period last year. Factors contributing to this decline included reduced "trade-in" incentives, diminished promotional discounts, and lower loan rebates [6][10] - The outlook for automotive sales remains weak, although the third batch of subsidy funds was distributed in late July, which may gradually restart "trade-in" programs in some regions. However, the intensity of price wars in the automotive sector has decreased, leading to higher consumer purchase costs and sustained high levels of consumer hesitation [10] U.S. Tariff Increases - In June, the U.S. customs reported an increase in tariff rates, with the overall tariff rate rising to 10%. The tariff rate on China decreased from 48.2% in May to 40.3% in June, with expectations that it will stabilize around 40% moving forward, which is an increase of 29.3 percentage points compared to 2024 [11][13] - Tariff rates for other major trading partners, such as Vietnam, Japan, and Germany, also increased to 9.3%, 15.9%, and 11.8%, respectively, which may further suppress U.S. import demand [14] South Korea Export Data - In early August, South Korea's export data showed a decline, with exports falling by 4.3% year-on-year in the first ten days of August, following two months of positive growth. This decline is attributed to the U.S. imposing a 15% tariff on South Korean goods [15][17] - The number of container ships departing from China to the U.S. remained low, while the number heading to Vietnam also began to decline in early August. However, China's port cargo throughput and container throughput showed a significant rebound in the second week of August, with week-on-week increases of 10.9% and 19.6%, respectively [17] Commodity Price Trends - The prices of major commodities showed a weak performance in early August, with 18 out of 50 tracked production materials experiencing price increases, while 29 saw declines. Notably, coking coal and coke prices led the gains, while agricultural products and non-ferrous metals performed poorly [17]

Economic Data Summary - July economic data indicates that external demand is stronger than internal demand, production is stronger than consumption, and constant price metrics outperform current price metrics[4] - In July, industrial output and service production indices grew by 5.7% and 5.8% year-on-year, respectively, with GDP growth estimated at around 5% in constant prices[4] - Retail sales in July increased by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in the previous month, while fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.6%[4] Automotive Market Insights - In August, national retail sales of passenger cars reached 452,000 units from August 1-10, a 4% decrease compared to the same period last year[7] - The automotive market has been negatively impacted by reduced "trade-in" policy effectiveness and declining promotional efforts, leading to a 1.5% year-on-year drop in July retail sales[7] Trade and Tariff Developments - In June, the U.S. tariff rate increased to 10%, with tariffs on Chinese goods decreasing from 48.2% in May to 40.3% in June[11] - The tariff rates for major trading partners like Vietnam, Japan, and Germany also increased, potentially suppressing U.S. import demand[11] Commodity Price Trends - Overall commodity prices showed weakness in early August, with coking coal and coke prices rising by 9.6% and 3.6% respectively compared to late July[16] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to rebound to around -3% year-on-year due to low base effects from the previous year[16] Risks and Market Outlook - Risks include U.S.-China trade tensions, tariff increases, and global supply chain adjustments, which may lead to export volatility and declining corporate profits[3] - Ongoing geopolitical changes and international market fluctuations could continue to impact commodity prices and related industries[3]

Group 1: Tariff Expansion - The U.S. government announced an expansion of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, adding hundreds of derivative products to the tariff list [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce included 407 product codes in the U.S. Harmonized Tariff Schedule, which will incur additional tariffs due to their steel and aluminum content [2] - The expanded tariff list will take effect on August 18, 2025, following a previous announcement to increase tariffs from 25% to 50% [2] Group 2: Market Impact - The expanded tariff range is expected to alter global aluminum trade flows, potentially exacerbating supply-demand tensions in certain markets, particularly in North America [3] - Increased tariffs will raise production costs for downstream industries in the U.S., such as automotive, home appliances, and construction materials, which may lead to weaker consumer data amid low consumer confidence [3] - The expansion of tariffs may impact China's aluminum and aluminum product exports, with a potential decline in exports expected in the fourth quarter [3] Group 3: Aluminum Market Outlook - Recent trends show strong fluctuations in aluminum prices, with the main futures contract hovering around 20,700 yuan/ton [6] - Analysts suggest that while there is a positive macro outlook and expectations of demand recovery during the traditional peak season, the overall aluminum market fundamentals remain weak due to low operating rates in key industries [6][8] - The upcoming peak season may not see robust demand, as reduced subsidies and trade tensions could lead to cautious consumer behavior [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai International suggests leveraging the current market pullback to focus on dual main lines of policy and industry resonance, particularly in sectors like biomedicine, high-end manufacturing, semiconductors, and AI computing power, as well as benefiting from policies in upstream cyclical industries like steel, cement, and coal [1][6] Economic Outlook - China's GDP growth for the first half of 2025 is projected at 5.3%, with a notable recovery in decision-making confidence, reducing the necessity for strong short-term stimulus [3] - Structural concerns are highlighted, including a nominal GDP growth rate of 3.9% and a negative deflation index for nine consecutive quarters, indicating ongoing price pressures [3] - Economic recovery is uneven, with strong export investment but pressure on consumption and real estate [3] Market Conditions - The Hang Seng Index's forecasted PE has returned to levels seen in 2018-2019, with risk premiums at historical lows and AH premium indices at a six-year low, indicating limited room for valuation expansion [1][5] - The market is expected to face short-term pressure due to weak economic data, limited strong stimulus measures, and potential liquidity contraction from U.S. Treasury issuance [1][5] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on sectors that can benefit from policy changes and technological breakthroughs, including biomedicine, high-end manufacturing, semiconductors, and AI computing power [1][6] - It also emphasizes the importance of structural reforms and targeted policies to support new infrastructure and improve supply-side conditions [3][5] International Trade and Monetary Policy - The U.S. economic outlook shows signs of weakness, with a significant drop in consumer and private investment growth, raising concerns about a potential recession [4] - The market anticipates a 90% probability of the Federal Reserve initiating a rate cut in September, which could influence Hong Kong's risk premium and market conditions [4][5] Capital Flows - As of August 1, 2023, the Hong Kong Stock Connect has seen a net inflow of HKD 879 billion, surpassing last year's total, although there is a notable divergence in international capital flows [5] - Passive funds have seen inflows, while active funds have experienced outflows, indicating a need for price stabilization and resolution of real estate risks for systemic foreign capital return [5]

版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 中国人民银行（央行） 由于担忧经济长期停滞以及中美贸易摩擦激化，外资的投资意愿停滞不前。4～6月外资的直 接投资还不到按季度计算达到顶峰2022年1～3月的1成…… 中国国家外汇管理局8月8日公布的4～6月国际收支数据显示，外资企业的直接投资净流入87 亿美元。新建工厂等新增投资额超过撤出和业务缩小带来的撤资额，但净流入额仍处于低水 平。 有分析认为，由于担忧经济长期停滞以及中美贸易摩擦激化，外资的投资意愿停滞不前。4～ 6月外资的直接投资还不到按季度计算达到顶峰2022年1～3月的1成。 外资的对华直接投资从上海封城导致经济严重混乱的2022年4～6月开始大幅下降。2023年7 ～9月首次出现了显示净流出的负增长。2024年4～6月和7～9月也呈负增长，但2025年1～ 3月为净流入。 美国5月已将对华追加关税下调逾100%，但目前仍适用30%的对华关税，企业的对美出口成 本增加。日本第一生命经济研究所的首席经济学家西浜彻指出，"美国对迂回出口的警惕也在 加强，企业不得不重新调整全体供应链"。 中国经济正在放缓，对高增长的期待正在消退 ...

第六节、全球血压监测装置投资情况分析 第一章、行业概况 第一节、血压监测装置行业简介 第二节、血压监测装置产品类型及生产企业 第三节、血压监测装置下游应用分布格局 第四节、全球血压监测装置主要生产企业概况 第五节、全球血压监测装置行业投资和发展前景分析 一、投资结构 二、投资规模 三、投资增速 四、主要投资项目简介 五、中国市场主要投资项目简介 第二章、全球血压监测装置供需状况及预测 第一节、全球血压监测装置供需现状及预测 一、全球血压监测装置产能、产量、产能利用率及发展趋势 二、全球血压监测装置产销概况及产销率 三、全球各类型血压监测装置产量及预测 四、全球各类型血压监测装置产值及预测 第二节、中国血压监测装置供需现状及预测 一、中国血压监测装置产能、产量、产能利用率及发展趋势 二、中国血压监测装置产销概况及产销率 三、中国各类型血压监测装置产量及预测（-2026-2026年） 四、中国各类型血压监测装置产值及预测（-2026-2026年） 第三章、全球血压监测装置竞争格局分析（产量、产值及主要企业） 第一节、全球血压监测装置主要企业产量、产值及市场份额 一、全球市场血压监测装置主要企业产量数据（2018- ...