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Fannie, Freddie mortgage buying unlikely to drive rates
Risk.net· 2026-02-09 04:30
Core Insights - The GSEs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) are no longer the dominant force in the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market as they were before the 2008 financial crisis, with their retained portfolios now accounting for only about 3% of the outstanding market [9][12][24] - Recent instructions from former President Donald Trump to the GSEs to purchase $200 billion in MBSs may not significantly impact the rates market due to the reduced scale of their hedging activities compared to the past [15][16][17] - The GSEs' retained portfolios have increased to $272 billion as of December, up $93 billion (52%) from May, but this growth is still modest relative to the overall market size [7][23][24] Group 1: GSEs' Market Position - The GSEs held more than $1 trillion of MBSs before the financial crisis, representing roughly a third of the market, but have since reduced their holdings significantly [9][12][14] - The Federal Reserve and commercial banks now hold a combined total of approximately $4.7 trillion in MBSs, which is about half of the market [7][24] - The GSEs' hedging activities have diminished, leading to a lack of significant influence on the rates market as they no longer manage a substantial duration gap [14][27] Group 2: Recent Developments - The Federal Housing Finance Agency clarified that the GSEs would be the buyers of the MBSs, with the combined incremental purchases not exceeding $200 billion [8][15][23] - Analysts expect that while the GSEs' purchases may affect MBS spreads, they are unlikely to have a major impact on the Treasury market due to insufficient hedging [6][17] - The GSEs' current cash reserves and potential MBS purchases could offset the Federal Reserve's ongoing balance sheet runoff, which has led to a decline in MBS holdings [24][29] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Nearly half of homeowners currently have mortgages at rates of 3% or less, indicating that significant refinancing activity would require a substantial drop in rates [28][29] - The longer high rates persist, the greater the future refinance exposure becomes as new mortgages are issued at higher rates [29] - The GSEs' past strategies involved extensive hedging through interest rate derivatives and Treasuries, which created volatility in the market, a dynamic that is less pronounced today [12][26][27]
Exempting post-trade risk reduction transactions from the clearing obligation
Bankofengland.Co.Uk· 2025-12-11 10:00
Overview - The Bank of England proposes to exempt transactions from the derivatives clearing obligation when carried out as part of a post-trade risk reduction (PTRR) service [1][3]. PTRR Services - PTRR providers assist market participants in reducing counterparty, operational, and basis risk in derivatives portfolios through services like portfolio compression, rebalancing, and basis risk optimisation [2][16][20]. - The Bank aims to support financial stability by increasing the efficiency of PTRR services and allowing broader access for market participants [3][29]. Legislative Framework - The UK EMIR mandates that all eligible OTC derivative contracts be cleared by a central counterparty (CCP) [3][10]. - The Financial Services and Markets Act 2023 (FSMA 2023) grants the Bank the authority to exempt certain transactions from this clearing obligation [3][13]. Proposal Details - The Bank proposes that PTRR transactions, which are non-price forming and do not affect market risk, should be exempt from the clearing obligation [27][28]. - This exemption is expected to enhance the efficiency of PTRR services and reduce the complexity for market participants [29][39]. Implementation and Compliance - The Bank suggests that the changes take effect three months after the final rules are published [36]. - PTRR providers must notify the Bank of their intention to provide services and comply with specific conditions to ensure the integrity of the process [34][42]. Cost-Benefit Analysis - The Bank conducted a cost-benefit analysis indicating that the benefits of the exemption, such as increased efficiency and reduced complexity, outweigh the marginal costs associated with compliance [41][44]. - Estimated one-off implementation costs for PTRR providers are approximately £15,000–£20,000, while participants may incur costs of less than £5,000 [59][60]. Financial Stability Implications - The proposed exemption is expected to support financial stability by reducing counterparty and operational risks, thereby freeing up capital and enhancing liquidity in the financial system [52][39]. - A larger network of participants in PTRR exercises could lead to greater risk reduction and mitigate systemic risks in the derivatives market [52][56].
Orchid Island Capital(ORC) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-04-25 15:14
Financial Performance - Net income per share for Q1 2025 was $018, compared to $007 in Q4 2024[10] - Book value per share decreased slightly from $809 in Q4 2024 to $794 in Q1 2025[10] - Dividends declared per common share remained constant at $036[16] - Net portfolio income decreased from $23514 thousand in 2024 to $21348 thousand in 2025[16] Portfolio Characteristics - Average MBS balances increased from $5348 million in Q4 2024 to $5996 million in Q1 2025[14] - The weighted average coupon of the fixed rate MBS portfolio increased from 503% at December 31, 2024, to 532% at March 31, 2025[43, 47] - Economic leverage ratio increased from 73 in Q4 2024 to 78 in Q1 2025[14] - Liquidity decreased from 105% in Q4 2024 to 78% in Q1 2025[14] Hedging and Funding - The weighted average repo rate was 446% as of March 31, 2025[51] - Total notional balance of hedge positions was $(47328) million[56] - Interest rate swaps had a notional balance of $(39093) million with a weighted average pay fix rate of 329%[56]