Core Thesis - Ingredion Incorporated is viewed positively due to its transition towards higher-growth plant-based proteins and alternative sweeteners, aligning with consumer preferences [3][5] - The company is recognized for its solid profitability and disciplined cost control, despite mixed financial performance [3][4] Company Overview - Ingredion is a century-old food ingredients manufacturer serving various industries, including food, paper, textiles, and biomaterials [2] - The company's share price was $107.68 as of December 2nd, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 10.78 and 9.51 respectively [1] Financial Performance - Ingredion's five-year annualized revenue growth is in the low single digits, with a 5.2% decline over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 [3] - The company returned approximately $426 million to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and buybacks, including the repurchase of 1.65 million shares [4] - Owners' earnings have shown mid-double-digit returns over the past five years, while free cash flow growth was more modest at 10.46% [4] Market Position - Morningstar assigns Ingredion a narrow economic moat due to its specialty ingredients business, which benefits from pricing power and customer switching costs [2] - The company is considered a high-quality, dividend-paying small-cap in the consumer staples sector [2]

Core Insights - Yacktman Asset Management sold 135,400 shares of Ingredion, valued at approximately $17.45 million, reducing its stake in the company [2][3] Company Overview - Ingredion is a leading global ingredient solutions provider with a diversified product portfolio and broad geographic reach [5] - The company generates revenue by processing corn and other starch-based materials into ingredients for various applications, including food, beverage, brewing, and industrial uses [8] Financial Performance - Ingredion reported a total revenue of $7.32 billion and a net income of $676 million for the trailing twelve months (TTM) [4] - The company has a dividend yield of 2.98% and has increased its dividend payments by 5% annually over the last decade [10] Stock Performance - As of November 3, 2025, Ingredion's stock price was $114.13, reflecting a 14.85% decline over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 by 32 percentage points [3] - The stock trades at 10 times earnings, indicating low market expectations [11] Investment Position - Following the sale, Ingredion now represents 2.42% of Yacktman Asset Management's assets under management (AUM), down from 2.9% [3][9] - Despite the reduction, Ingredion remains the 13th-largest holding in Yacktman's portfolio [9]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales for Q3 2025 were $1.8 billion, down 3% year-over-year, with gross profit dollars decreasing by 5% and gross margins slightly lower at 25.1% [16][18] - Reported and adjusted operating income were $249 million and $254 million, respectively [16] - Year-to-date cash from operations was $539 million, with capital expenditures net of disposals at $298 million [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Texture and Healthful Solutions net sales increased by 1%, driven by a 4% sales volume growth [16][17] - Food and Industrial Ingredients LATAM reported a net sales decrease of 6%, primarily due to weaker brewing demand and macroeconomic conditions [17][18] - Food and Industrial Ingredients U.S./Canada net sales declined by 7%, with a 5% decline in sales volume attributed to production challenges at the Argo plant [17][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - LATAM market showed signs of weakening demand due to higher inflation and interest rates impacting consumer spending [9][10] - In the U.S., demand for sweeteners decreased in July and August but recovered in September [27][28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on driving profitable growth, particularly in Texture and Healthful Solutions, with an emphasis on clean-label ingredients [11][12] - Innovation remains a key pillar, with ongoing development of cost-effective ingredient solutions to help customers maintain quality while reducing costs [12][13] - Operational excellence initiatives are expected to yield significant savings, with a target of over $55 million in run-rate savings by the end of 2025 [14][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the diversified business portfolio despite recent challenges, anticipating operating income growth for the full year [4][5] - The outlook for 2025 includes expectations for net sales to be flat to down low single digits, with adjusted operating income expected to increase low to mid-single digits [22][23] Other Important Information - The company has authorized a new share repurchase program of up to eight million shares over the next three years, reflecting confidence in future growth [25][60] - The effective tax rate for 2025 is projected to be between 25.5% and 26.5% [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Demand environment and stabilization signs - Management noted that inflation and high interest rates in LATAM are impacting consumer spending, with GDP growth forecasts for Mexico and Brazil being low [27][28] Question: Texture and Healthful Solutions segment outlook - The outlook change is driven by a diverse customer base and strong demand in food service and private label sectors [29][30] Question: Volume impacts from macro weakening and company-specific events - Approximately 12 million of the decline in U.S. Canada F&I was attributed to Argo plant issues, with the remainder related to market weakness [31][34] Question: Fourth-quarter contracting season and price-cost dynamics - Management anticipates that contracting will be influenced by inflationary pressures and higher input costs, with a cautious outlook for 2026 [37][38] Question: LATAM market and taxation impacts - The proposed sweetness tax in Mexico is expected to impact consumer behavior, but management believes the company is well-positioned to adapt [41][44] Question: Share repurchase strategy - The company plans to exceed $200 million in share repurchases in 2025, with a healthy cash balance supporting this strategy [60][61]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.92 and total segment operating profit of $845 million for the third quarter [4] - The trailing four-quarter adjusted return on invested capital (ROIC) was 6.7% and cash flow from operations before working capital changes was $2.1 billion year to date [4] - Adjusted earnings per share expectations for the full year 2025 have been revised down to a range of $3.25-$3.50, down from approximately $4 per share [12][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Services & Oilseeds (AS&O) segment operating profit was $379 million, down 21% compared to the prior year quarter, primarily due to the deferral of U.S. biofuel policy [14] - Ag Services subsegment operating profit increased by 78% to $190 million, driven by higher export activity in North America [14] - Carbohydrate Solutions segment operating profit was $336 million, down 26% year-over-year, primarily due to a decline in global demand for sweeteners and starches [16] - Nutrition segment revenues were $1.9 billion, up 5% year-over-year, with operating profit increasing by 24% to $130 million [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved the best total export volume for September since 2016, which helped offset some weakness in the cash business [7] - Global soybean and canola crush execution margins were significantly lower than the prior year quarter, particularly in North America [15] - Ethanol EBITDA margins per gallon for the quarter were approximately double compared to the prior year quarter, with volumes roughly flat [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on operational excellence, portfolio optimization, and cost savings through a self-help agenda, targeting $200 million-$300 million in cost savings for 2025 [9][21] - A joint venture with Alltech in Animal Nutrition aims to transition the business into higher-margin specialty ingredients, expected to commence operations in 2026 [9][40] - The company is investing in innovation, particularly in flavor systems for energy drinks and natural colors, as well as postbiotics [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a challenging industry-wide operating environment but remains flexible and focused on long-term growth [4] - The deferral in U.S. biofuel policy has led to lowered expectations for full-year 2025, but management remains optimistic about 2026 due to potential improvements in market conditions [11][13] - The company is prepared for gradual improvements in margins as clarity on biofuel policies is expected [76] Other Important Information - The company has maintained a strong balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation, allowing for continued investments and shareholder returns [6] - The company has reduced inventory by $3.2 billion year to date, improving working capital efficiency [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you help reconcile the sequential decline in the third quarter for crush? - Management explained that soybean crush rallied sharply post-RVO announcements but then moved lower due to various factors, including a decrease in U.S. acres and uncertainty about biofuels policy [30] Question: Can you clarify the insurance gains? - Management confirmed that insurance proceeds in the fourth quarter are expected to be funded half by captive insurance and half by third parties, with total proceeds lower than the previous year [35] Question: What are the benefits of the JV with Alltech? - The JV aims to pivot towards more specialty products in Animal Nutrition, combining the strengths of both companies to enhance operational improvements and synergies [40] Question: How does the company view the clarity on biofuel policy? - Management expressed optimism about the eventual clarity on biofuel policies, which is expected to positively impact margins and demand for domestic feedstocks [76] Question: What is the outlook for Ag Services? - Management noted that while Q3 was strong, the outlook for Q4 may be softer due to ongoing uncertainties regarding trade deals and farmer selling behavior [68]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.92 and total segment operating profit of $845 million for the third quarter [4] - The trailing four-quarter adjusted return on invested capital (ROIC) was 6.7% [4] - Cash flow from operations before working capital changes was $2.1 billion year to date, down by $254 million compared to the prior year [19][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ag Services & Oilseeds (AS&O) segment operating profit was $379 million, down 21% year-over-year, primarily due to the deferral of U.S. biofuel policy [14] - AX services subsegment operating profit increased by 78% to $190 million, driven by higher export activity in North America [14] - Carbohydrate Solutions segment operating profit was $336 million, down 26% year-over-year, with starches and sweeteners subsegment profit down 36% due to declining global demand [16][17] - Nutrition segment revenues were $1.9 billion, up 5% year-over-year, with operating profit increasing by 24% to $130 million [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved the best total export volume for September since 2016, which helped offset some weakness in the cash business [7] - Global soybean and canola crush execution margins were significantly lower than the prior year quarter, particularly in North America [15] - Ethanol EBITDA margins per gallon for the quarter were approximately double compared to the prior year quarter [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational excellence, portfolio optimization, and cost savings, targeting $200-$300 million in cost savings for 2025 [9][21] - A joint venture with Alltech in animal nutrition aims to transition the business into higher-margin specialty ingredients, expected to commence operations in 2026 [9][40] - The company is investing in innovation, particularly in flavor systems for energy drinks and postbiotics, to drive growth [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2026, anticipating a more constructive environment for the industry and American farmers, contingent on clarity regarding U.S. biofuel policy [13][46] - The company lowered its full-year 2025 adjusted earnings per share expectations to a range of $3.25 to $3.50, down from approximately $4 per share [12][21] - Management noted that the current operating environment is challenging, with uncertainty around biofuel policy impacting demand [11][27] Other Important Information - The company announced its 375th consecutive quarterly dividend [6] - Strong cash management has allowed the company to continue investing in areas of innovation [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you help reconcile the sequential decline in the third quarter for crush versus previous quarters? - Management explained that soybean crush rallied sharply post-RVO announcements but then moved lower due to various factors, including uncertainty about biofuels policy [30] Question: Can you clarify the insurance gains and their funding sources? - Management confirmed that half of the insurance proceeds are funded by a captive insurer, with the other half expected from third parties [35] Question: What are the benefits of the joint venture with Alltech? - The joint venture aims to combine the strengths of both companies to pivot towards higher-margin specialty ingredients in animal nutrition, with production expected to start in 2026 [40] Question: How does the company view the clarity on biofuel policy? - Management indicated that clarity on biofuel policy is crucial for future margins and operational planning, with expectations for gradual improvements once policies are finalized [45][76] Question: What is the outlook for ag services in the fourth quarter? - Management noted that while Q3 was strong, the outlook for Q4 is more subdued due to ongoing uncertainties in trade and biofuel policies [66]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.92 and total segment operating profit of $845 million for Q3 2025 [4] - The trailing four-quarter adjusted ROIC was 6.7% and cash flow from operations before working capital changes was $2.1 billion year to date [4] - The company revised its full year 2025 adjusted EPS expectations to a range of $3.25 to $3.50, down from approximately $4 per share [12][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ag Services & Oilseeds (AS&O) segment operating profit was $379 million, down 21% compared to the prior year quarter [13] - Carbohydrate Solutions segment operating profit was $336 million, down 26% compared to the prior year quarter [16] - Nutrition segment revenues were $1.9 billion, up 5% compared to the prior year quarter, with operating profit of $130 million, up 24% [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The AX services subsegment in AS&O saw an operating profit increase of 78% compared to the prior year quarter, driven by higher export activity in North America [13] - Global soybean and canola crush execution margins were significantly lower than the prior year quarter, particularly in North America [15] - Ethanol EBITDA margins per gallon for the quarter were approximately double, with volumes roughly flat compared to the prior year quarter [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a self-help agenda, aiming for $200-$300 million in cost savings for 2025 and $500-$750 million over the next three to five years [9][22] - A joint venture with Alltech in animal nutrition aims to transition the business into higher margin specialty ingredients, expected to commence operations in 2026 [9][32] - The company is adapting to evolving trade policy and remains flexible to offset the impact of challenging dynamics [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2026, anticipating a more constructive environment for the industry and American farmers [12] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. biofuel policy is impacting short-term expectations, leading to a cautious outlook for the remainder of 2025 [11][12] - Management highlighted the importance of clarity on trade deals and biofuel policies for future performance [50][51] Other Important Information - The company achieved a key milestone in its decarbonization strategy by connecting its Columbus, Nebraska plant to a CO2 pipeline [8] - Strong cash management practices have allowed the company to reduce inventory by $3.2 billion year to date [20] - The company has maintained a solid cash position and distributed $743 million in dividends year to date [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you help reconcile the sequential decline in the third quarter for crush versus previous quarters? - Management noted that soybean crush rallied sharply post-RVO announcements but has since moved lower due to various factors, including trade deal uncertainties and a decrease in U.S. acres [28][29] Question: Can you elaborate on the joint venture with Alltech? - The joint venture combines ADM's compound feed business with Alltech, focusing on transitioning to higher-margin specialty ingredients, with production expected to start in 2026 [32][33] Question: What is the outlook for ag services in Q4? - Management indicated that while Q3 was stronger than anticipated, the outlook for Q4 may be softer due to ongoing uncertainties in trade deals and biofuel policies [47][50]

Economic Overview - Economic uncertainty is affecting businesses and consumers in the U.S. due to ongoing tariff wars, yet the U.S. stock markets have reached record highs with a 14% year-to-date gain [1] - Analysts at Goldman Sachs suggest that investors should diversify their focus beyond a concentrated group of stocks that have driven market highs, as opportunities are emerging across various regions, sectors, and styles [2] FMCG Industry Insights - The global FMCG market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.8% from 2025 to 2032, reaching $18.96 trillion, driven by shifts in consumer behavior and technological innovations [5] - Companies in the FMCG sector are well-positioned to withstand economic challenges due to the consistent demand for their products, which are typically low-priced [4] Investment Strategy - The best FMCG stocks are characterized by prudent financial management, healthy balance sheets, and sustainable profit margins, allowing them to navigate market fluctuations while providing shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks [6] - A methodology was employed to identify top FMCG stocks, focusing on those with an upside potential of over 20% and popularity among elite hedge funds in Q2 2025 [8][9] Company Highlights - **Dollar General Corporation (NYSE:DG)**: Stock upside potential of 21.57%, with 55 hedge fund holders. The stock is viewed positively due to its underperformance relative to the sector and signs of operational improvement [10][11][12] - **Ingredion Incorporated (NYSE:INGR)**: Stock upside potential of 23.19%, with 34 hedge fund holders. The company anticipates sales growth of 2% to 4% over the next two years and a 7% to 9% CAGR in adjusted EPS through 2027 [14][15][16] - **Smithfield Foods Inc. (NASDAQ:SFD)**: Stock upside potential of 23.91%, with 27 hedge fund holders. The company recently confirmed a secondary public offering of 19.53 million shares priced at $23.35 each, with no proceeds going to Smithfield [17][18][19]

Group 1: Lam Research Corporation - Lam Research reported revenues of $5.17 billion and a gross margin of 50.1% for the quarter ending June 2025, with net income rising to $1.72 billion or $1.35 per diluted share, up from $1.03 in the prior quarter [1] - The company expects revenues around $5.2 billion next quarter, with earnings per share near $1.20, indicating continued strength in its core business [1] - Lam Research's stock has climbed 34.72% over the past year, with a strong 41% gain so far in 2025, reflecting growing confidence in the demand for advanced chips [3] - The company announced a quarterly dividend of $0.26 per share, up from $0.23, payable on October 15, 2025, marking its commitment to returning value to shareholders [6] - Lam Research continues to innovate with the launch of the ALTUS Halo tool for advanced chip production and has invested in Zettabyte, focusing on the growing AI market [7] Group 2: Ingredion Incorporated - Ingredion increased its quarterly payout to $0.82 per share on August 27, 2025, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [5] - The company reported a 13% jump in operating income to $271 million in Q2 2025, with earnings per share rising to $2.99 from $2.22 in the previous year [11] - Ingredion's stock has declined by 5.17% over the past year, but it offers a dividend yield of 2.5% and has increased dividends for 15 consecutive years, indicating potential value for investors [10] - The company is expanding its partnership with Univar Solutions to distribute plant-based ingredients and is investing $50 million to enhance its Cedar Rapids facility, showing a focus on growth beyond food ingredients [12] Group 3: Nordson Corporation - Nordson reported sales of $742 million in Q3 2025, a 12% increase compared to the prior year, with adjusted earnings per share jumping 13% to $2.73 [17] - The company offers a dividend yield of 1.04% and has increased dividends for 63 straight years, with a payout ratio under 30% [16] - Analysts are positive on Nordson's future, with all surveyed giving it a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating and an average price target of $256.44, indicating roughly 15% upside from the current price [19] Group 4: Market Overview - Recent dividend increases from Lam Research, Ingredion, and Nordson indicate confidence in their ability to generate steady cash flows amid uncertain economic conditions [20] - The semiconductor equipment sector, represented by Lam Research, shows strong growth potential, while Ingredion combines growth with a focus on healthier food options [20]

Core Insights - Post Holdings, Inc. reported strong third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with both revenue and earnings exceeding expectations and showing year-over-year growth [1][10]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share were $2.03, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.67, and increased from $1.54 in the same quarter last year [2][10]. - Net sales reached $1,984.3 million, a 1.9% increase year over year, beating the estimate of $1,951 million. This includes $8.4 million from the acquisition of Potato Products of Idaho, L.L.C. [3][10]. - Gross profit was $596.2 million, up 3.3% year over year, with gross margin expanding to 30% from 29.6% [3][10]. - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses decreased by 3.8% to $312.1 million, representing 15.7% of net sales compared to 16.7% in the prior year [4]. - Operating profit increased by 15.5% to $234.6 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose 13.4% to $397 million from $350.2 million in the previous year [4]. Segment Performance - **Post Consumer Brands**: Reported net sales of $914 million, down 9.3% year over year, missing the estimate of $945 million, primarily due to a 10.3% drop in volumes [5]. - **Weetabix**: Net sales increased by 1.3% to $137.9 million but missed the estimate of $139 million, with a 2.5% decline in volumes [6]. - **Foodservice**: Achieved 18.6% growth in net sales to $698.5 million, exceeding the estimate of $636 million, with volumes growing 4.5% excluding acquisition impacts [7]. - **Refrigerated Retail**: Sales increased by 9.1% to $233.9 million, beating the estimate of $224 million, with a profit surge of 380.4% to $24.5 million [8]. Future Outlook - The company raised its fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $1,500-$1,520 million, up from the previous range of $1,460-$1,500 million [10][14]. - Capital expenditures for fiscal 2025 are expected to be between $450 million and $480 million, increased from the previous range of $390-$430 million [15]. Shareholder Actions - Post Holdings repurchased 0.6 million shares for $62.1 million in the third quarter, totaling 3.9 million shares for $434.7 million for the nine months ended June 30, 2025 [12].

Company Overview - Ingredion Incorporated (NYSE: INGR) is a leading ingredient solutions company with global operations, providing sweeteners and starches, as well as higher-potential ingredients such as prebiotic fibers and plant-based proteins to the food and beverage market [1] Research Background - The analyst has over 10 years of experience researching companies across various sectors, including commodities like oil, natural gas, gold, and copper, as well as technology companies like Google and Nokia, and many emerging market stocks [1] Content Creation - The analyst transitioned from writing a blog for about 3 years to a value investing-focused YouTube channel, where extensive research on hundreds of different companies has been conducted [1] - The analyst expresses a particular interest in covering metals and mining stocks, while also being comfortable with other industries such as consumer discretionary/staples, REITs, and utilities [1]