Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The second round of China-US trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the A-share market declined and adjusted after the Politburo meeting, with consumption rising against the trend. There was a short - term expectation gap in the market [2] - The Politburo meeting led to a short - term release of negative factors, causing the bond futures to rise. The 7 - month PMI index should be monitored [2] - US macro - policies and other negative factors may put pressure on the gold price, and it can be bought at low levels after consecutive declines. The silver price may seek support above $37 (8900 yuan) [2] - The market expectation of the container shipping index (European line) has cooled, leading to a price decline [2] - The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price, and the coking plants have the expectation of further price increases [2] - The copper price is under pressure due to the落空 of the US copper tariff expectation, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in the aluminum market [2] - Geopolitical risks have increased concerns about the marginal contraction of oil supply, and the oil price is in a strong - side shock [2] - The urea market is restricted by export difficulties and high inventory, and the PX market is affected by the downstream of the industrial chain [2] - The PTA market has limited drivers and fluctuates with raw materials, and the short - fiber market has a weak supply - demand expectation [2] - The bottle - chip market is following the cost fluctuation, and the ethylene glycol market's supply - demand situation has turned loose [2] - The soybean meal market is suppressed by the expected high yield of US soybeans, and the pig market's previous policy benefits have been digested [2] - The corn market is in a state of long - short entanglement, and the palm oil market follows the Malaysian palm oil to strengthen [2] - The sugar market has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and the cotton market has a tight old - crop inventory and a weak downstream market [2] - The egg market is seasonally strong in the short - term but bearish in the long - term, and the apple market is trading lightly [2] - The red - date market has a stable and firm spot price but is bearish in the long - term, and the soda - ash market has repeated price fluctuations [2] - The glass market has a weakening spot sales and repeated price fluctuations, and the rubber market has a high - level shock [2] - The industrial silicon market's futures price fluctuates downward with the market, and the polysilicon market has multiple contracts reaching the daily limit [2] - The lithium carbonate market has a wide - range shock due to macro - sentiment fluctuations, and the trading core has shifted to the mining end [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: A - shares declined and adjusted. It is recommended to take profit on the long position of IM futures, replace it with a small amount of short positions in the far - month contract 6300 strike price MO put options, and reduce the position, with a mild bullish attitude [2] - **Treasury Bond**: After the Politburo meeting, short - term negative factors were released, and the bond futures rose. It is recommended to try to go long in the short - term and pay attention to the 7 - month PMI index [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold price is under pressure and can be bought at low levels after consecutive declines. Silver price may seek support above $37 (8900 yuan), and if it breaks, it may fall to $36 (8700 yuan) [2] Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Iron ore follows the steel price. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coils and short on iron ore [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The exchange's position - limit intervention has caused large fluctuations in futures. It is recommended to go long on coking coal at low levels. The mainstream coking plants have the fifth - round price increase, and it is recommended to go long on coke at low levels [2] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is under pressure due to the落空 of the US copper tariff expectation. The reference price range for the main contract is 77000 - 79000, and there is a risk of a short squeeze [2] - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The aluminum price has a narrow - range shock, and the reference price ranges for the main contracts of aluminum, aluminum alloy, and zinc are given. The tin price has fallen from a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have increased concerns about the marginal contraction of oil supply. It is recommended to trade in a band - trading way, with the resistance levels of WTI, Brent, and SC given [2] - **Urea**: Export difficulties and high inventory restrict the rebound space. It is recommended to trade in a band - trading way within the range of 1700 - 1800 [2] - **PX**: The supply - demand expectation is tight, but the downstream of the industrial chain affects the trend. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish and expand the PX - SC spread at a low level [2] - **PTA**: It has limited drivers and fluctuates with raw materials. It is recommended to be bearish above 4900, conduct TA9 - 1 rolling reverse arbitrage, and expand the processing margin at a low level [2] - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak. The operation is the same as that of PTA, and the processing margin fluctuates in the range of 800 - 1100 [2] - **Bottle - chip**: It maintains production cuts, and the processing margin's upward space depends on demand. The operation is the same as that of PTA, and the processing margin is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton [2] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Multiple domestic and foreign plants have restarted, and the supply - demand situation has turned loose. It is recommended to wait and see on the EG09 single - side and conduct 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [2] - **Other Chemicals**: For various other chemicals such as caustic soda, PVC, etc., different operation suggestions are given according to their respective market conditions [2] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The soybean meal market is affected by the expected high yield of US soybeans. The pig market is bearish. The corn market is in a long - short entanglement. The palm oil market follows the Malaysian palm oil to strengthen [2] - **Others**: For other agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, eggs, etc., different operation suggestions are given according to their respective market conditions [2] Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: For special commodities such as glass, rubber, and industrial silicon, different operation suggestions are given according to their respective market conditions [2] - **New Energy Commodities**: For new - energy commodities such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate, different operation suggestions are given according to their respective market conditions [2]