Summary of ASMPT (0522.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ASMPT (0522.HK) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Equipment Key Financial Results - **3Q25 Revenue**: HK$3.7 billion, representing an increase of +8% QoQ and +9% YoY, aligning with expectations [6][9] - **Gross Margin**: 35.7%, down from 39.7% in 2Q25 and 41.0% in 3Q24, lower than estimates of 40.9% and 40.1% [6][12] - **Operating Profit**: HK$50 million, a decrease of -72% YoY, impacted by restructuring costs [7][12] - **Net Loss**: -HK$270 million, significantly lower than expected net profits of HK$226 million and HK$201 million [12] - **Book-to-Bill Ratio**: 0.99 in 3Q25, down from 1.11 in 2Q25, indicating a decline in order intake [12] Revenue Guidance - **4Q25 Revenue Guidance**: Expected to be between US$470 million and US$530 million (HK$3.7 billion to HK$4.1 billion), implying a YoY growth of +8% to +21% [2] - **Management's Outlook**: Positive on TCB's market potential, driven by demand from the China market and AI-related sectors, though recovery in automotive and industrial segments remains uncertain [2] Segment Performance - **Semiconductor Solutions (Backend)**: Revenue decreased by -7% QoQ but increased by +5% YoY; bookings down -2% QoQ and -12% YoY due to an order cancellation [12] - **Surface Mount Technology (SMT)**: Revenue increased by +28% QoQ and +15% YoY; bookings decreased by -5% QoQ but increased by +52% YoY [12] Strategic Highlights - **Strength in TCB Tools**: Management noted success in securing orders for HBM4 12H TCB from multiple customers, indicating strong demand in advanced packaging tools [1] - **Mainstream Tools Demand**: Driven by AI, China EV, and China OSATs [1] Risks and Considerations - **Key Risks**: 1. Variability in customer adoption of Advanced Packaging tools [11] 2. Fluctuating demand from automotive customers [11] 3. Demand for traditional IC packaging and SMT equipment [11] Valuation and Price Target - **Current Price**: HK$87.25 - **12-Month Price Target**: HK$79.00, based on a P/E multiple of 19.5x for 2026E [10][13] - **Market Cap**: HK$36.0 billion [13] Conclusion - ASMPT's recent performance reflects challenges in gross margins and net profitability, while management remains optimistic about future growth driven by advanced packaging and AI-related demands. The company faces risks related to market demand fluctuations and customer adoption rates.

Summary of ASMPT (0522.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ASMPT (0522.HK) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Equipment Key Points and Arguments Growth Potential - ASMPT's growth potential in TCB (Thermal Compression Bonding) tools is optimistic, driven by increasing adoption in HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and logic advanced packaging [1][2] - The transition from HBM3E to HBM4 is expected to enhance the application of ASMPT's TCB tools, necessitating higher pitch size and accuracy [1] Market Dynamics - The Book-to-Bill ratio for ASMPT's semiconductor segments remains below 1.0, indicating a cautious outlook [1][7] - Positive indicators include rising capital expenditures (capex) from Chinese OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) customers, with notable increases of 41% YoY for JCET and 54% YoY for Tongfu in 1H25 [2] - Changchuan, a domestic backend equipment firm, reported a record net income of Rmb400m-450m for 3Q25, reflecting strong demand from semiconductor testers [2] Revenue Projections - ASMPT's semiconductor back-end tool revenues are projected to grow by 24% in 3Q25, 25% in 4Q25, and 26% for the full year of 2026, supported by advanced packaging tools and a recovering trend in semiconductor back-end tools [2] Financial Outlook - Earnings for ASMPT have been revised upwards by 1% for 2026 and 2027 due to a better outlook for traditional and advanced packaging tools [9] - Revenue estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been increased by 0.3% each, with operating margins slightly improved [9] Valuation and Price Target - The 12-month price target for ASMPT has been raised by 14.5% to HK$79.00, based on a higher target multiple and improved earnings outlook [12][19] - The target P/E multiple for 2026E has been adjusted to 19.5x, reflecting a re-rating of the semiconductor equipment supply chain [12] Risks - Key risks include the pace of customer adoption of advanced packaging tools, demand fluctuations from automotive customers, and variations in demand for traditional IC packaging and SMT equipment [20] Conclusion - ASMPT maintains a Neutral rating, with the current valuation reflecting near-term positives. A more positive outlook could emerge with stronger adoption of TCB/HB technology and clearer visibility on demand recovery for mainstream semiconductor tools [1][12]

Core Viewpoint - ASMPT's 2Q25 earnings fell short of expectations primarily due to foreign exchange impacts on gross profit margin (GPM) and strategic research and development (R&D) investments, yet the blended book-to-bill (B/B) ratio improved to 1.11, indicating strong order gains across the semiconductor (SEMI) and surface mount technology (SMT) sectors, supporting robust revenue guidance for 3Q25 [1][2] Financial Performance - 2Q25 revenue increased by 2% year-over-year to HK$3.4 billion, aligning closely with midpoint guidance, while GPM and operating profit margin (OPM) decreased by 1.2 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points quarter-over-quarter to 39.7% and 5.0% respectively, mainly due to high operating expenses (OPEX) and strategic investments [2] - Adjusted net income (NI) decreased by 3% year-over-year to HK$131 million, reflecting the impact of OPEX and foreign exchange [2] Future Guidance - 3Q25 revenue guidance is set between US$445 million and US$505 million, exceeding market expectations by 1%, with the midpoint reflecting a 10.8% year-over-year and 8.9% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by strong SEMI orders and SMT orders from a leading smartphone customer [3] - Management anticipates strong growth in advanced packaging (AP) and a recovery in mainstream demand, particularly from China and AI data centers, although there are concerns regarding soft near-term demand in automotive and industrial sectors [3] Advanced Packaging (AP) Insights - In 1H25, AP revenue constituted 39% of total revenue, marking a record high, with TCB orders increasing by 50% due to significant installations and shipments for HBM clients [4] - ASMPT has established the largest TCB installed base globally, surpassing 500 tools, and is expected to continue its growth trajectory in TCB and other AP tool orders in 2H25 [4] Valuation Adjustments - The revenue estimate for SMT has been increased by 3% to account for demand recovery driven by China and AI, while SEMI revenues have been reduced by 2% due to delayed TCB orders [6] - The group GPM is expected to remain above 40%, but net income forecasts have been lowered by 15%/4%/3% to reflect the impact of high OPEX [6]