Core Viewpoint - American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) is experiencing significant stock price fluctuations, with a recent decline of 9.49% while showing a notable gain of 34.01% over the past month, indicating volatility in its market performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - AEO is expected to report an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.2, reflecting a 48.72% decline year-over-year, alongside a revenue forecast of $1.23 billion, which represents a 4.55% decrease compared to the same quarter last year [2]. - Full-year estimates predict earnings of $0.81 per share and revenue of $5.19 billion, indicating year-over-year changes of -53.45% and -2.58%, respectively [3]. Analyst Estimates and Market Sentiment - Recent revisions in analyst estimates for AEO have shown a downward shift of 2.11%, leading to a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), which suggests a negative outlook on the company's performance [5]. - The correlation between estimate revisions and stock price performance indicates that investors should monitor these changes closely for potential investment opportunities [4]. Valuation Metrics - AEO's current Forward P/E ratio stands at 16.34, which is lower than the industry average of 17.42, suggesting that AEO is trading at a discount compared to its peers [6]. - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, to which AEO belongs, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 197, placing it in the bottom 21% of over 250 industries, indicating overall weak performance within the sector [6][7].

Company Performance - American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) closed at $9.90, down 2.17% from the previous trading session, underperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.33% [1] - Over the past month, AEO shares appreciated by 0.5%, lagging behind the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 0.67% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.07% [1] Upcoming Earnings - The upcoming EPS for American Eagle Outfitters is projected at $0.2, indicating a 48.72% decline compared to the same quarter last year [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is $1.23 billion, reflecting a 4.49% decrease from the previous year [2] Fiscal Year Projections - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are projected at $0.83 per share, representing a 52.3% decline from the prior year [3] - Revenue for the fiscal year is estimated at $5.19 billion, down 2.57% from the previous year [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes to analyst estimates for American Eagle Outfitters are significant as they indicate shifts in near-term business trends [4] - Positive revisions in estimates suggest analysts' confidence in the company's performance and profit potential [4] Zacks Rank and Valuation - The Zacks Rank system currently rates American Eagle Outfitters as 5 (Strong Sell), with a 9.04% decrease in the Consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days [6] - The company has a Forward P/E ratio of 12.19, which is a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 17.97 [7] Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, part of the Retail-Wholesale sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 209, placing it in the bottom 16% of over 250 industries [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank assesses the strength of industry groups based on the average Zacks Rank of individual stocks [8]

Group 1 - Abercrombie & Fitch's stock increased by 1.38% to $88.24, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.28% and the Dow's gain of 0.43% [1] - The stock has risen by 10.16% over the past month, leading the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 0.87% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.37% [1] Group 2 - The company is expected to report an EPS of $2.25, reflecting a 10% decrease from the same quarter last year, with quarterly revenue forecasted at $1.18 billion, up 4.12% year-over-year [2] - For the fiscal year, earnings are projected at $10.17 per share and revenue at $5.18 billion, indicating changes of -4.86% and +4.69% respectively from the previous year [3] Group 3 - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Abercrombie & Fitch are important as they indicate changing business trends, with upward revisions suggesting positive sentiment towards the company's operations [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which evaluates estimate revisions, currently ranks Abercrombie & Fitch as 5 (Strong Sell), with a 0.05% decrease in the consensus EPS estimate over the past month [6] Group 4 - Abercrombie & Fitch has a Forward P/E ratio of 8.56, which is a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 17.54 [7] - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, part of the Retail-Wholesale sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 208, placing it in the bottom 16% of over 250 industries [7]

Core Insights - Abercrombie & Fitch's international operations are crucial for assessing its financial resilience and growth prospects [1][2] - The company's total revenue for the quarter was $1.1 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.5% [4] International Revenue Breakdown - Europe, Middle East, and Africa generated $185.04 million, accounting for 16.86% of total revenue, surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $175.6 million [5] - Asia Pacific contributed $37.47 million, representing 3.41% of total revenue, exceeding the anticipated $34.37 million [6] Future Revenue Projections - Analysts project total revenue for the current fiscal quarter to be $1.18 billion, a 4% increase from the previous year, with expected contributions of 17.7% from Europe, Middle East, and Africa and 3.2% from Asia Pacific [7] - For the entire year, total revenue is forecasted at $5.17 billion, a 4.5% improvement, with Europe, Middle East, and Africa contributing 15.7% and Asia Pacific 2.9% [8] Strategic Considerations - The reliance on international markets presents both opportunities and challenges, necessitating close monitoring of revenue trends for accurate future projections [9][10]

Financial Performance - American Eagle Outfitters reported a quarterly loss of $0.29 per share, which was worse than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.25, and a decline from earnings of $0.34 per share a year ago, indicating an earnings surprise of -16% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.09 billion for the quarter ended April 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.15%, and down from $1.14 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, American Eagle has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times, but has only topped consensus revenue estimates once [2] Stock Performance - American Eagle shares have declined approximately 33.5% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 0.1% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.25 on revenues of $1.24 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.01 on revenues of $5.22 billion [7] Industry Outlook - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, to which American Eagle belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 37% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges ahead [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which could impact American Eagle's stock performance [5]

Financial Performance - Abercrombie & Fitch reported quarterly earnings of $1.59 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.35 per share, but down from $2.14 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 17.78% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.1 billion for the quarter ended April 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.82% and up from $1.02 billion year-over-year [2] Market Performance - Abercrombie shares have declined approximately 48.4% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 0.7% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for Abercrombie is 4 (Sell), indicating expectations of underperformance in the near future [6] Future Outlook - The consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $2.48 on revenues of $1.18 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $10.64 on revenues of $5.12 billion [7] - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry is currently ranked in the bottom 46% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges for Abercrombie's stock performance [8]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) due to lower revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is expected on May 29, 2025, with a projected loss of $0.19 per share, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 155.9% [3]. - Revenues are forecasted to be $1.09 billion, down 4.6% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 9.52% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -30.35%, complicating predictions for an earnings beat [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likelihood of deviation from consensus estimates, with positive readings being more predictive of earnings beats [6][7]. - A positive Earnings ESP combined with a strong Zacks Rank increases the chances of a positive surprise, but American Eagle's current Zacks Rank is 3, making predictions uncertain [8][11]. Historical Performance - American Eagle has beaten consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters, with a recent surprise of +8% when it reported earnings of $0.54 per share against an expectation of $0.50 [12][13]. Industry Comparison - Abercrombie & Fitch, a competitor in the retail apparel sector, is expected to report an EPS of $1.40, indicating a year-over-year decline of 34.6%, with revenues projected at $1.07 billion, up 5.3% [17]. - Abercrombie's consensus EPS estimate has also been revised down, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -4.22% and a Zacks Rank of 4, indicating challenges in predicting an earnings beat [18].

Core Viewpoint - Abercrombie & Fitch is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues, which could significantly influence its stock price in the near term [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to be released on May 28, 2025, with a consensus estimate of $1.40 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 34.6% [3]. - Revenues are projected to reach $1.07 billion, indicating a 5.3% increase compared to the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.22% over the last 30 days, suggesting a collective reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings outlook [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, leading to an Earnings ESP of -4.22%, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict the likelihood of actual earnings deviating from consensus estimates, with a strong predictive power for positive readings [7][8]. - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 have historically shown a nearly 70% chance of delivering a positive surprise [8]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Abercrombie exceeded the expected earnings of $3.48 per share by posting $3.57, resulting in a surprise of +2.59% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [13]. Conclusion - Despite the potential for an earnings beat, various factors can influence stock movement, and the current indicators suggest that Abercrombie may not be a strong candidate for an earnings surprise [14][16].

Company Performance - American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) ended the recent trading session at $11.17, showing a +1.27% change from the previous day's closing price, outperforming the S&P 500 which gained 0.44% [1] - The company's shares have increased by 14.3% over the last month, surpassing the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 9.15% and the S&P 500's gain of 10.62% [1] Earnings Projections - The upcoming EPS for American Eagle Outfitters is projected at $0.11, indicating a 67.65% decline compared to the same quarter last year [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is $1.08 billion, reflecting a 5.35% decrease from the equivalent quarter last year [2] - Full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $1.49 per share and revenue of $5.22 billion, representing year-over-year changes of -14.37% and -1.98%, respectively [3] Analyst Estimates and Rankings - Recent changes in analyst estimates for American Eagle Outfitters are crucial as they indicate shifting near-term business trends, with positive revisions suggesting optimism about the company's outlook [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), currently ranks American Eagle Outfitters as 4 (Sell), with a 0.67% decline in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate over the past month [6] Valuation Metrics - American Eagle Outfitters is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 7.42, which is a discount compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 13.81 [7] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.79, while the average PEG ratio for the Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry is 1.4 [7] Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector and currently holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 149, placing it in the bottom 40% of over 250 industries [8] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]