Core Viewpoint - Abercrombie & Fitch has experienced a decline of approximately 15.9% in share price over the past month, underperforming the S&P 500, raising questions about the potential for a breakout or continued negative trend leading up to the next earnings release [1] Group 1: Earnings and Estimates - Recent estimates for Abercrombie have trended downward, with the consensus estimate shifting by -26.41% over the past month [2] - The stock has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating expectations for an in-line return in the coming months [4] Group 2: VGM Scores - Abercrombie has a strong Growth Score of A, but is significantly lagging in Momentum Score with an F, while also receiving an A for Value, placing it in the top quintile for this investment strategy [3] - The overall aggregate VGM Score for Abercrombie is A, which is relevant for investors not focused on a single strategy [3]

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My previous investment thought on Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF ) was an upgrade to a hold rating because I saw improvements in the business fundamentals that could potentially lead to a guidance beat andI focus on long-term investments while incorporating short-term shorts to uncover alpha opportunities. My investment approach revolves around bottom-up analysis, delving into the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of individual companies. My investment duration is the medium to long-term. Ultimately, I a ...

I am a full-time analyst interested in a wide range of stocks. With my unique insights and knowledge, I hope to provide other investors with a contrasting view of my portfolio, given my particular background.If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me via a direct message on Seeking Alpha or leave a comment on one of my articles.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the ...

Key Takeaways Growth cooldowns have plagued consumer-facing stocks over recent months. While buying the 'dip' could be enticing, their EPS outlooks suggest otherwise. Many consumer-facing stocks – e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) , Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) , and NIKE (NKE) – have faced pressure over recent weeks, with economic developments and tariff talks causing considerable selling pressure.But is the negativity warranted? Let’s take a closer look at how each stacks up.ELF Shares PlungeELF shares have been decimate ...

Core Insights - GigaCloud Technology Inc. (GCT) was sold from the Accelerated Profits portfolio despite its impressive growth metrics, including a 65% revenue increase and a net profit of $125 million, which is a sixfold increase from two years prior [1][3] - The imposition of tariffs by the U.S. government on Chinese imports has severely impacted GigaCloud's business model, which relies on connecting Asian manufacturers with U.S. resellers [2][3] - Analysts have reduced GCT's 2025 earnings estimates by 20% due to the adverse effects of tariffs, leading to a downgrade in its stock rating [3] GigaCloud Technology Inc. - GigaCloud specializes in large parcel shipping, utilizing software to consolidate small shipments into larger ones to reduce costs [1] - The company's core operations are significantly affected by the 20% tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, which threaten the profitability of Chinese exporters and subsequently reduce demand for GigaCloud's logistics services [3] Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK) - Deckers, known for brands like UGG and Hoka, has also been impacted by rising tariffs, leading to a decision to sell its stock [6] - The company sources a significant portion of its materials from China, making it vulnerable to tariff increases [7] - Analysts have cut first-quarter earnings estimates for Deckers by 20%, predicting a 29% year-over-year decline in profits [8] Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) - Abercrombie has seen a turnaround under new leadership, but rising tariffs threaten its recovery as it sources nearly half of its production from Vietnam and China [10] - The company relies on high gross margins to offset overhead costs, and any increase in production costs due to tariffs could significantly impact net profits [11] - A lack of buying pressure has been noted, prompting a recommendation to sell shares [12] Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) - The homebuilding sector is feeling the effects of rising tariffs, with a decline in the Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index indicating reduced consumer confidence [13] - Toll Brothers has reported a softening demand in the lower-end market and plans to cut back on speculative home construction [13] - Current tariff rates are expected to increase the average new home price by 5%, further complicating the market for homebuilders [14] General Market Impact - The imposition of tariffs has historically led to significant market value losses for companies reliant on imports, with examples including Toll Brothers and Abercrombie [16] - High-growth tech firms, however, tend to remain resilient during such economic disruptions, focusing on innovation rather than tariff impacts [18]

Shares of Abercrombie & Fitch Company (ANF) hit a new 52-week low of $77.19 yesterday before rising a notch to close at $78.17. The closing price reflects a 60.3% discount from its 52-week high of $196.99.Additionally, this apparel retailer’s stock has slipped below critical technical thresholds, such as its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which are important indicators for gauging market trends and momentum. These raise investor concerns regarding ANF’s ability to navigate current market dynamics.ANF T ...

Financial Performance - Company reported fourth quarter net sales of $1.58 billion, up 9% year-over-year, with comparable sales growth of 14%[5] - Full year net sales reached $4.95 billion, a 16% increase compared to 2023, driven by 17% comparable sales growth across regions and brands[5] - Operating margin for the full year improved to 15.0%, up 370 basis points from the previous year, with net income per diluted share of $10.69, reflecting a 72% growth[5] - Operating income for the full year was $741 million, compared to $485 million in the previous year, reflecting strong operational performance[6] - Net sales for the thirteen weeks ended February 1, 2025, were $1,584,917 thousand, representing a 9% increase from $1,452,907 thousand for the fourteen weeks ended February 3, 2024[23] - Operating income for the same period was $256,064 thousand, which is 16.2% of net sales, compared to $222,801 thousand or 15.3% of net sales in the prior year[23] - Net income attributable to Abercrombie & Fitch Co. for the thirteen weeks was $187,226 thousand, up from $158,447 thousand, reflecting an increase of 18.2%[23] - The diluted net income per share attributable to Abercrombie & Fitch Co. increased to $3.57 from $2.97, marking a 20.2% rise[23] - For the fifty-two weeks ended February 1, 2025, net sales reached $4,948,587 thousand, a 15.6% increase from $4,280,677 thousand for the fifty-three weeks ended February 3, 2024[25] - Operating income for the fifty-two weeks was $740,820 thousand, which is 15.0% of net sales, compared to $484,671 thousand or 11.3% of net sales in the previous year[25] - Net income attributable to Abercrombie & Fitch Co. for the fifty-two weeks was $566,223 thousand, significantly higher than $328,123 thousand, indicating a 72.5% increase[25] - The company reported a diluted net income per share of $10.69 for the fifty-two weeks, up from $6.22, representing a 71.1% increase[25] - Net sales for 2024 reached $4,948.6 million, a 16% increase from $4,280.7 million in 2023[34] - Operating income for 2024 was $740.8 million, up from $484.7 million in 2023, reflecting a 370 basis point improvement[34] - Net income per share attributable to A&F increased to $10.69 in 2024, compared to $6.22 in 2023, a $4.47 increase[34] - Total company EBITDA for 2024 was $894.6 million, representing 18.1% of net sales, up from $625.8 million or 14.6% in 2023[43] Sales and Segment Performance - The Americas segment saw a 17% increase in net sales for the full year, totaling $4.03 billion, while EMEA and APAC segments grew by 12% and 9%, respectively[7] - The Americas segment reported net sales of $1,319.7 million in 2024, an 11% increase from $1,191.3 million in 2023[36] - Hollister brand net sales grew by 16% to $812.2 million in 2024, compared to $697.7 million in 2023[36] Share Repurchase and Future Expectations - Company announced a new $1.3 billion share repurchase authorization, with expectations to repurchase $400 million in shares during 2025[12] - For fiscal 2025, the company expects net sales growth in the range of 3% to 5% and operating margin between 14% and 15%[13] - The company plans approximately 40 net store openings and 60 total openings with 20 closures in fiscal 2025[13] Cash and Liquidity - Cash and equivalents as of February 1, 2025, were $773 million, down from $901 million the previous year, with liquidity totaling approximately $1.2 billion[8] - The company repurchased 1.6 million shares for $230 million in fiscal 2024, representing a 3% reduction in shares outstanding[9] - Total assets increased to $3,299.9 million as of February 1, 2025, compared to $2,974.2 million on February 3, 2024[46] - Current liabilities rose to $1,126.9 million in 2025, up from $966.8 million in 2024[46] - The company reported a cash and equivalents balance of $772.7 million as of February 1, 2025, down from $900.9 million in 2024[46] - Cash and equivalents at the end of the period decreased to $780,395 from $909,685, a decline of approximately 14.2%[49] - The effect of foreign currency exchange rates on cash resulted in a decrease of $7,086, compared to a decrease of $2,923 in the previous year[49] - The net decrease in cash and equivalents was $129,290, contrasting with an increase of $382,116 in the prior year[49] Expense Management - Selling expenses as a percentage of net sales decreased to 34.2% for the fifty-two weeks ended February 1, 2025, down from 35.8% in the previous year[25] - The company has reassessed its expense classification, now presenting selling and general administrative expenses more reflectively of its current operating structure[17] Store Count and Operations - The total store count increased to 789, up from 765, with 65 new stores opened and 41 permanently closed[51] - The Americas segment saw an increase in Abercrombie stores from 194 to 215, while Hollister stores remained stable at 385[51] - The EMEA segment's Abercrombie stores increased from 29 to 33, while Hollister stores decreased from 108 to 100[51] - The APAC segment's Abercrombie stores increased from 24 to 30, while Hollister stores remained at 26[51]

Core Viewpoint - Abercrombie & Fitch Co. reported strong fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results, with sales and earnings exceeding expectations and showing year-over-year improvements, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of earnings beats [1][2]. Financial Performance - Earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter reached $3.57, a 20.2% increase from $2.97 in the previous year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.48 [2]. - Net sales amounted to $1.58 billion, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase on a reported basis and a 10% increase on a constant-currency basis, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.56 billion [3]. - Comparable sales improved by 14%, driven by broad-based growth across regions and brands, particularly strong traffic [3]. Regional and Brand Sales - Sales in the Americas rose 11% year over year to $1.32 billion, while EMEA sales increased 2% to $224.5 million, and APAC sales fell 4% to $40.7 million [6]. - The Abercrombie brand saw a 2% year-over-year sales increase to $772.7 million, while Hollister's sales grew 16% to $812.2 million [7]. Margins and Expenses - Gross margin for the fourth quarter was 61.5%, down 140 basis points year over year, primarily due to increased freight costs [8]. - Selling expenses were $526.4 million, up 5.5% year over year, but as a percentage of sales, they decreased to 33.2% [9]. - Operating income increased by 14.9% to $256.1 million, with an operating margin of 16.2%, up 90 basis points from the previous year [10]. Financial Health - The company ended the fourth quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $772.7 million and no net long-term borrowings, indicating a stable financial position [11]. - A new $1.3 billion share repurchase authorization was announced, with plans to repurchase $100 million in the first quarter and $400 million in fiscal 2025 [12]. Future Outlook - For the first quarter of fiscal 2025, net sales are projected to rise 4-6% from $1.02 billion in the previous year, with EPS expected between $1.25 and $1.45 [13]. - For fiscal 2025, the company anticipates sales growth of 3-5% from $4.95 billion, with an operating margin expected between 14-15% [14]. - The company plans to open 60 new stores, remodel 40, and close 20 in fiscal 2025 [16].

Core Viewpoint - Telsey Advisory analyst Dana Telsey maintains an Outperform rating on Abercrombie & Fitch Co (ANF) shares but reduces the price target from $190.00 to $125.00 due to increased macroeconomic uncertainty [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - ANF concluded FY24 with strong results, exceeding both revenue and earnings expectations, despite a slight decline in gross margin during the fourth quarter [1] - The company reported a 22.5% year-over-year increase in inventories, contrasting with a 9.1% growth in topline revenue for the same period [5] - The projected EPS for FY25 is $11.35, a slight increase from the previous estimate of $11.30 [6] Group 2: Growth and Expansion - ANF has demonstrated consistent growth across its A&F and Hollister brands, supported by a strong holiday performance and an upcoming share repurchase program [2] - The company plans to open 100 new locations in FY25, marking its fourth consecutive year of net store openings [4] - Management anticipates FY25 net sales growth of 3% – 5%, driven by regional and brand expansion [3] Group 3: Operational Insights - ANF's operating margin is expected to range between 14% – 15%, with the first half affected by higher freight costs and inventory selling, while the second half is expected to benefit from lower freight costs [3] - The company has a flexible supply chain that sources products from 17 countries, allowing it to quickly adapt to demand changes [4] - In FY24, ANF achieved a fleet four-wall operating margin of approximately 30% [5] Group 4: Market Conditions - The outlook for ANF considers the impact of newly announced tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, which are projected to reduce operating margin by about $5 million for the year [3] - Despite concerns regarding margin and consumer confidence, the company's low valuation supports a positive outlook [2]