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欧洲商业服务:人员配置:2025年5月:欧洲的数据点持续改善
Goldman Sachs· 2025-06-11 02:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating on Adecco and a Neutral rating on Randstad [6][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continued improvement in temp staffing trends and PMI numbers, indicating a positive outlook for the temp staffing industry. Month-on-month temp volumes have shown growth since January 2025, suggesting a potential recovery in topline performance for staffing companies after a prolonged period of weakness [5][18]. - French temp staffing data for May 2025 showed a year-over-year volume decline of -5.7%, an improvement from -8.1% in April 2025. Dutch turnover data for the same period improved significantly to +5% year-over-year [1][3]. - US temp staffing volumes were down approximately -5% year-over-year in May 2025, consistent with the decline seen in April [4][14]. Summary by Sections French Temp Staffing - French temp staffing volumes declined by -6% in May 2025, improving from -8% year-over-year in April 2025 [10]. - The turnover for French temp work improved to approximately -1% compared to -5% in April 2025 [3]. Dutch Temp Staffing - Dutch turnover increased by approximately +5% year-over-year in the 5th 4-week period of 2025, a significant improvement from -2% in the previous period [12]. US Temp Staffing - US temp staffing volumes declined by approximately -5% year-over-year in May 2025, maintaining a stable temp penetration rate at multi-year lows of 1.59% [4][14]. Company Performance - Adecco is expected to deliver a faster topline recovery compared to peers, supported by its differentiated business mix and better execution [7]. - Randstad's performance remains neutral, with a need for evidence of market outperformance to turn more positive on the company [9]. Valuation Metrics - Adecco is trading close to trough EV/sales multiples, with a 2025E EV/sales of 0.3x [6]. - Randstad is trading at approximately 0.4x EV/sales [25].