Core Viewpoint - American Resources Corp is making significant advancements in rare earth refining operations and expansion plans, particularly through its 19% stake in ReElement Technologies Corporation, which is refining critical and rare earth elements at competitive costs compared to Chinese producers [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - American Resources Corp took the company public several years ago and established ReElement Technologies Corporation, which is now a key player in the industry [2]. - The company is focused on refining critical and rare earth elements for both defense supply chains and commercial markets, sourcing raw materials from its own mines [3]. Group 2: Cost Competitiveness - ReElement Technologies is able to refine rare earth elements at costs between $25 to $35 per kilogram, significantly lower than the $110 per kilogram cost associated with traditional solvent extraction methods used by competitors [5]. - The refined products are sold at prices ranging from $65 to $500 per kilogram, with high-purity materials exceeding $5,000 per kilogram [5]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The technology used by ReElement, originally developed in the 1960s, has been enhanced with modern computing power, allowing for efficient production without toxic processes [4][8]. - The company has achieved remarkable purity levels, recently shipping 99.999% pure gallium and terbium, which are among the most challenging heavy rare earth elements to purify [8]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - The launch of a rare magnet supply chain is significant as it addresses a gap in the U.S. market, with no other company able to produce these elements domestically at the same scale [6]. - American Resources Corp is committed to breaking the reliance on China for the defense supply chain, aiming to provide these materials domestically at competitive costs [7]. Group 5: Future Plans - The company has a $100 million commitment for a facility in Africa and is collaborating with an Australian company on direct lithium extraction, indicating plans for international expansion [9]. - Upcoming announcements are expected to showcase the company's capabilities and scale in the critical minerals space [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Underweight (UW) rating on Lynas Rare Earths and a Neutral (N) rating on MP Materials [2][9]. Core Insights - The rare earths industry is facing significant supply chain disruptions due to China's export restrictions on key heavies like Terbium and Dysprosium, which are critical for electric vehicles and advanced technologies [9]. - Despite potential trade negotiations between the US and China, the damage to the supply chain may be lasting, prompting a shift towards developing non-Chinese sources of rare earths [9]. - The oil sector is expected to see strong refining margins, with a projected surplus of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbd) in Q4 2025, leading to a price floor for Brent crude between $55-60 and WTI between $50-55 [3][15]. Rare Earths Sector Summary - China controls approximately 70% of rare earth production, 85% of processing capacity, and 99% of heavies production, which has led to a scramble for alternative sources among automakers [9]. - Lynas Rare Earths and MP Materials are identified as key beneficiaries of the push for ex-China supply, with Lynas having over 85% exposure to NdPr, which is not currently restricted [9]. - The report expresses caution regarding the sustainability of the current rally in rare earth prices and the timing of commercial production volumes from alternative sources [9]. Oil Sector Summary - The report highlights five conditions necessary for crude prices to decline, with only two expected to materialize: a surge in OECD inventories and a flattening crude curve [15]. - Refining margins are anticipated to remain strong due to limited new capacity coming online, influenced by China's export restrictions and closures of US/EU plants [3][15]. - The report suggests that product stocks are expected to build, but low starting levels should support prices and margins [15].

Industry Overview - The Materials Sector on Wall Street faced a challenging 2024, becoming one of the worst-performing sectors in the S&P 500 with a decline of 1.5% due to global economic concerns, particularly a slowdown in China and insufficient interest rate reductions [1] - Demand for materials such as steel, copper, and chemicals has been dampened, adversely impacting companies across the sector [1] Economic Factors - Global central banks, including the Fed, have initiated interest rate cuts after a period of tightening, which can lower borrowing costs for materials companies and stimulate demand in construction and manufacturing [2] - China has introduced economic stimulus packages aimed at revitalizing its economy, which could lead to increased demand for materials due to its significant role as a global importer [2] Sector-Specific Opportunities - Copper producers may benefit from short-term economic rebounds and long-term supply-demand imbalances, especially as copper is essential in electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure [3] - The imposition of a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports by the U.S. is expected to boost domestic production by reducing foreign competition [3] Geopolitical Dynamics - Tariffs have intensified the geopolitical race for rare earths and critical minerals, with China's export restrictions on materials like terbium and dysprosium disrupting supply chains in industries such as electric vehicles and defense [4] - The U.S. is accelerating efforts to boost domestic production, including initiatives to streamline mining permits and develop processing capabilities [4] Future Outlook - Despite the challenges faced in 2024, the outlook for the Materials sector in 2025 appears more promising due to economic stimulus measures, lower interest rates, and sector-specific growth areas [5] - Investors may find opportunities in companies strategically positioned to benefit from these macroeconomic and industry-specific trends [5] Company Highlights - Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) has an expected earnings growth rate of 3% for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate improvement of 17.7% over the past 60 days, holding a Zacks Rank 2 and a VGM Score of B [7] - The Andersons, Inc. (ANDE) is expected to have a 22.8% earnings growth rate for the next year, with a 4.5% improvement in the current-year earnings estimate, holding a Zacks Rank 1 and a VGM Score of B [8] - Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI) has an expected earnings growth rate of 46.7% for the current year, with a significant 64.4% improvement in the current-year earnings estimate, holding a Zacks Rank 2 and a VGM Score of B [9]