Investment Rating - The report maintains an Underweight (UW) rating on Lynas Rare Earths and a Neutral (N) rating on MP Materials [2][9]. Core Insights - The rare earths industry is facing significant supply chain disruptions due to China's export restrictions on key heavies like Terbium and Dysprosium, which are critical for electric vehicles and advanced technologies [9]. - Despite potential trade negotiations between the US and China, the damage to the supply chain may be lasting, prompting a shift towards developing non-Chinese sources of rare earths [9]. - The oil sector is expected to see strong refining margins, with a projected surplus of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbd) in Q4 2025, leading to a price floor for Brent crude between $55-60 and WTI between $50-55 [3][15]. Rare Earths Sector Summary - China controls approximately 70% of rare earth production, 85% of processing capacity, and 99% of heavies production, which has led to a scramble for alternative sources among automakers [9]. - Lynas Rare Earths and MP Materials are identified as key beneficiaries of the push for ex-China supply, with Lynas having over 85% exposure to NdPr, which is not currently restricted [9]. - The report expresses caution regarding the sustainability of the current rally in rare earth prices and the timing of commercial production volumes from alternative sources [9]. Oil Sector Summary - The report highlights five conditions necessary for crude prices to decline, with only two expected to materialize: a surge in OECD inventories and a flattening crude curve [15]. - Refining margins are anticipated to remain strong due to limited new capacity coming online, influenced by China's export restrictions and closures of US/EU plants [3][15]. - The report suggests that product stocks are expected to build, but low starting levels should support prices and margins [15].

Core Viewpoint - Energy Fuels has developed the technical capability to produce several rare earth oxides at scale, coinciding with President Trump's initiation of a Section 232 investigation into imports of processed critical minerals, which may enhance domestic production and supply chains [1][4]. Company Developments - Energy Fuels has successfully developed technology to produce six of the seven rare earth oxides affected by new Chinese export controls, leveraging its White Mesa Mill in Utah, which can process monazite ore concentrates into separated neodymium-praseodymium oxide [2][6]. - The company has commercial capacity to process up to 10,000 tonnes of monazite concentrate annually, producing up to 1,000 tonnes of NdPr oxide, with plans to increase capacity to 60,000 tonnes in the future [9][10]. - Energy Fuels has established a supply chain for monazite by acquiring three large-scale heavy mineral sands mines, ensuring a long-term supply of monazite concentrates for processing [8][11]. Industry Context - The U.S. government, under President Trump's Executive Order, is investigating the national security implications of importing processed critical minerals, which may lead to increased domestic production and support for companies like Energy Fuels [4][5]. - The company is positioned to address gaps identified in the Executive Order, having a history of producing uranium and vanadium oxides, and recently launching commercial rare earth processing capabilities [5][12]. - Energy Fuels focuses on monazite, which has a high-grade REE content and is produced as a low-cost byproduct of heavy mineral sands mining, providing a competitive advantage in the rare earth market [8][9].