Lynas says repeated grid interruptions this month at its new Kalgoorlie cracking-and-leaching plant will leave a shortfall. Credit: Lynas Rare Earths Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC; US-OTC: LYSDY) says repeated grid interruptions this month at its new Kalgoorlie cracking-and-leaching plant will leave a shortfall in mixed rare earth carbonate feed this quarter, constraining finished product from its Malaysian refinery.The company linked the outages to Western Power’s Eastern Goldfields load permissive scheme an ...

Core Insights - MP Materials Corp. reported a mixed quarterly update indicating improving profitability trends and steady momentum in magnetics [1] - The company is making progress towards domestic heavy rare earth separation, which supports its long-term strategy [1] - Third-quarter revenue was $53.55 million, slightly below analyst estimates of $54.92 million [1] Financial Performance - The company reported an adjusted loss of 10 cents per share, which was better than the analyst estimate of a loss of 18 cents per share [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was negative $13 million, an improvement from negative $11 million a year earlier and better than the forecast of negative $14 million [3] - Magnetics revenue was slightly above projections, while oxide sales were lower due to reduced volume [3] Operational Developments - The third-quarter REO concentrate volume was zero as the company adhered to the DoW agreement to halt sales to China, with the price floor agreement starting in October [4] - The new heavy rare earth separation facility at Mountain Pass is expected to begin commissioning in mid-2026, initially focusing on dysprosium and terbium production [4] - The facility will have a nameplate capacity of 200 metric tons per year for the Dy/Tb circuit and can process about 3,000 metric tons of feedstock [5] Market Reaction - Following the quarterly update, MP shares increased by 8.37% to $56.30 [5]

Core Insights - MP Materials Corp. reported a mixed quarterly update, indicating improving profitability trends and steady momentum in magnetics [1] - The company outlined progress toward domestic heavy rare earth separation, enhancing sentiment around its long-term strategy [1] Financial Performance - For the third quarter, MP Materials reported revenue of $53.55 million, which fell short of analyst estimates of $54.92 million [1] - The adjusted loss was 10 cents per share, better than the expected loss of 18 cents per share [2] - Adjusted EBITDA was negative $13 million, an improvement from negative $11 million a year earlier and better than the forecast of negative $14 million [3] Sales and Revenue Breakdown - Magnetics revenue slightly exceeded projections, while oxide sales were lower due to reduced volume [3] - Lower tons sold were partially offset by better price realization [4] Strategic Developments - MP Materials has halted sales of REO concentrate to China as per the DoW agreement, which began in October [4] - The company plans to commission a new heavy rare earth separation facility at Mountain Pass by mid-2026, initially focusing on dysprosium and terbium production [4] Capacity and Production - The nameplate capacity for the Dy/Tb circuit is 200 metric tons per year, with the ability to process about 3,000 metric tons of feedstock [5] - The facility will utilize MP's own heavy concentrate, stockpiled material, and third-party feedstock from new sources [5] Market Reaction - Following the quarterly update, MP shares increased by 8.37% to $56.30 [5]

Core Insights - A significant demand for critical minerals is emerging, essential for electric vehicles, batteries, and clean energy systems, with two U.S.-listed ETFs, VanEck Rare Earth And Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) and Amplify Lithium & Battery Technology ETF (BATT), positioned at the forefront of this trend [1][2] ETF Overview - REMX focuses on rare earth and strategic metal miners, tracking the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index, and includes companies like MP Materials Corp, Lynas Rare Earths, and Pilbara Minerals, which are crucial in the U.S.-China supply chain dynamics [3] - BATT tracks the EQM Lithium & Battery Technology Index, combining miners such as Albemarle Corp and Glencore with downstream manufacturers like Panasonic and Samsung SDI, thus capturing both extraction and downstream demand from the EV and energy storage sectors [4] Performance Metrics - Both ETFs have expense ratios between 0.58% and 0.59%, with REMX managing approximately $1.3 billion in assets and BATT around $91 million; REMX has shown a 79% year-to-date return, while BATT has returned 55% year-to-date, reflecting differing investor interests and market conditions [5] - REMX's performance is heavily influenced by Chinese policy risks, while BATT's broader focus ties its performance to EV adoption and battery margins [6] Investment Implications - For investors interested in mining geopolitics, REMX offers a concentrated investment in supply scarcity, while BATT may appeal to those seeking a more diversified exposure to the clean energy sector [7]

Core Insights - Lithium Corporation is focused on advancing North America's energy independence through the exploration and development of critical mineral resources [1] Group 1: Company Activities - Ongoing field exploration includes geological mapping and sampling at a site with identified enriched Rare Earth Element (REE) mineralization, specifically Neodymium and Dysprosium [1] - The company has applied to increase the size of its claim block to approximately 13,440 acres (5,438 hectares) to cover adjacent areas with geological similarities and potential for similar REE mineralization [1]

Core Insights - Lithium Corp (LTUM) has made a significant discovery of enriched deposits of neodymium, dysprosium, and other rare earth elements at its fluorspar project in British Columbia, resulting in a 290% increase in share price in one trading session [1][6] - The timing of this discovery aligns with recent U.S. government investments in securing critical mineral supply chains, raising speculation about which junior miners could benefit next [2][5] Company Developments - The discovery covers over 5,700 acres of claims, prompting management to realign claim blocks for optimal coverage and initiate fieldwork to identify bedrock sources [3] - The essential nature of neodymium and dysprosium for high-performance electric vehicle motors and defense applications positions LTUM strategically within the market [3][4] Market Context - The market is currently in need of new supply stories for critical minerals, and LTUM's strong cash position relative to its debt provides it with the ability to advance exploration efforts without significant dilution [5] - The surge in LTUM's stock price reflects a rapid shift in investor sentiment towards junior explorers involved in critical minerals, especially in light of the U.S. administration's focus on domestic supply security [6]

Core Insights - Lithium Corp (LTUM) has made a significant discovery of enriched deposits of neodymium, dysprosium, and other rare earth elements at its fluorspar project in British Columbia, resulting in a 290% increase in share price in one session [1][6] - The timing of this discovery aligns with recent U.S. government investments in critical mineral supply chains, raising speculation about which junior miners could benefit next [2][5] Company Developments - The discovery spans over 5,700 acres of claims, prompting management to realign claim blocks for optimal coverage and to explore nearby geologically similar zones [3] - Fieldwork is currently underway to identify bedrock sources of these rare earth elements, which are crucial for high-performance electric vehicle motors and defense applications [3][4] Market Context - The market is currently in need of new supply stories for critical minerals, highlighting the potential for small companies like LTUM to attract attention [5] - Despite being a micro-cap company, LTUM's relatively strong cash position compared to its debt allows it to advance exploration efforts without significant dilution [5] Investor Sentiment - The rapid 290% surge in LTUM's stock price illustrates how quickly market sentiment can shift when junior explorers engage in the critical minerals narrative [6] - With the U.S. administration prioritizing domestic supply security and making substantial investments, LTUM has positioned itself as a speculative opportunity in the context of America's mineral strategy [6]

Core Viewpoint - Northern Minerals has secured a new mining lease for its Browns Range project, significantly expanding its mining area and enhancing its development potential in the rare earths sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Mining Lease Details - The new lease, M80/650, replaces the former lease M80/627 and expands the mining area from 4,923 hectares to 10,458 hectares [1]. - The lease is valid until 8 September 2046, with an option for an additional 21-year term [2]. Group 2: Project Significance - The Browns Range Project is rich in heavy rare earths, particularly dysprosium and terbium, which are essential for manufacturing permanent magnets used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and defense applications [2][3]. - The flagship deposit, Wolverine, is recognized as the highest-grade source of dysprosium and terbium in Australia [3]. Group 3: Development Plans - Northern Minerals aims to enhance the project's development as outlined in its definitive feasibility study (DFS) released on 15 September 2025 [3]. - The feasibility study focuses on a commercial-scale operation to mine and process ore from Wolverine, with output intended for Iluka Resources' refinery currently under construction in Eneabba, WA [4].

Business Overview - Australian Strategic Materials (ASM) is building a global rare earths and critical minerals business[15] - ASM aims to provide high-tech metals to solve current and future challenges[15] - The company's strategy includes mine to metals approach[25] Korean Metals Plant (KMP) - KMP has an installed capacity of 1,300 tonnes per annum (tpa) of NdFeB alloy[34] - Approximately US$60 million has been invested in KMP to date[34] - KMP is undergoing Phase 2 ramp-up to a designed capacity of 3,600 tpa NdFeB alloy with an additional capital expenditure of approximately US$8 million[34] - Targeted annual revenue for KMP based on estimated Phase 2 maximum production is approximately US$204 million, with approximately US$26 million in annual EBITDA[37] Dubbo Project - The Heap Leach Option reduces the capital forecast cost by approximately 56% from A$167 billion to A$740 million compared to the 2021 Optimisation Feasibility Study[47] - The Heap Leach Option is projected to produce 1,157 tpa of NdPr oxide, 13 tpa of Tb oxide, and 72 tpa of Dy oxide[47] - The Heap Leach Option has a pre-tax NPV of approximately A$1,468 million and an IRR of 229%[47] Financial Status - As of June 30, 2025, ASM had approximately A$190 million in cash[62] - A$249 million was raised via SPP & institutional placement to accelerate growth initiatives[28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Underweight (UW) rating on Lynas Rare Earths and a Neutral (N) rating on MP Materials [2][9]. Core Insights - The rare earths industry is facing significant supply chain disruptions due to China's export restrictions on key heavies like Terbium and Dysprosium, which are critical for electric vehicles and advanced technologies [9]. - Despite potential trade negotiations between the US and China, the damage to the supply chain may be lasting, prompting a shift towards developing non-Chinese sources of rare earths [9]. - The oil sector is expected to see strong refining margins, with a projected surplus of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbd) in Q4 2025, leading to a price floor for Brent crude between $55-60 and WTI between $50-55 [3][15]. Rare Earths Sector Summary - China controls approximately 70% of rare earth production, 85% of processing capacity, and 99% of heavies production, which has led to a scramble for alternative sources among automakers [9]. - Lynas Rare Earths and MP Materials are identified as key beneficiaries of the push for ex-China supply, with Lynas having over 85% exposure to NdPr, which is not currently restricted [9]. - The report expresses caution regarding the sustainability of the current rally in rare earth prices and the timing of commercial production volumes from alternative sources [9]. Oil Sector Summary - The report highlights five conditions necessary for crude prices to decline, with only two expected to materialize: a surge in OECD inventories and a flattening crude curve [15]. - Refining margins are anticipated to remain strong due to limited new capacity coming online, influenced by China's export restrictions and closures of US/EU plants [3][15]. - The report suggests that product stocks are expected to build, but low starting levels should support prices and margins [15].