Three nanometer process technology(三纳米制程技术)

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TSMC(TSM) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-16 07:00
Financial Highlights - In Q3 2025, revenue increased by 10.1% sequentially to $33.1 billion, slightly exceeding guidance [6][10] - Gross margin rose by 0.9 percentage points sequentially to 59.5%, driven by cost improvements and higher capacity utilization [6][11] - Operating margin increased by 1.0 percentage point sequentially to 50.6% [6] - EPS was up 39% year-over-year, and ROE stood at 37.8% [6] Business Line Performance - Three nanometer process technology contributed 23% of wafer revenue, while five nanometer and seven nanometer accounted for 37% and 14% respectively [7] - Advanced technologies (seven nanometer and below) represented 74% of wafer revenue [7] - Revenue from the smartphone segment increased by 19% to account for 30% of total revenue [7] - HPC remained flat at 57%, while IoT and automotive segments grew by 20% and 18% respectively [7] Market Data - Cash and marketable securities totaled NT$2.8 trillion (approximately $90 billion) at the end of Q3 2025 [8] - Current liabilities decreased by NT$101 billion quarter-over-quarter [8] - Accounts receivable turnover days increased by 2 days to 25 days, while days of inventory decreased by 2 days to 74 days [8] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - TSMC plans to narrow its 2025 CapEx guidance to between $40 billion and $42 billion, with 70% allocated for advanced process technologies [13][14] - The company aims to leverage its manufacturing technology leadership and large-scale production to remain competitive [12][13] - TSMC is expanding its global manufacturing footprint, including capacity expansions in Arizona, Japan, and Germany [21][24] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted strong demand for leading-edge process technologies, particularly in AI-related markets [15][16] - The company expects full-year 2025 revenue to increase by close to mid-30s percent year-over-year [16] - Management remains cautious about potential impacts from tariff policies and is focused on maintaining technology leadership and customer trust [17][18] Other Important Information - TSMC's two nanometer technology is on track for volume production later this quarter, with expectations for a faster ramp in 2026 [26] - The company is also introducing N2P technology, which offers further performance benefits [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: AI Demand and Growth Forecast - Management confirmed that AI demand is stronger than previously anticipated, with an updated CAGR expected to be better than mid-40s [35] - They emphasized that CapEx will correlate with business opportunities, and growth in revenue should outpace CapEx growth [37] Question: Capacity Expansion Plans - Management indicated that they are working hard to narrow the gap between demand and supply, with plans to increase capacity in 2026 [42] Question: Advanced Packaging and Revenue Drivers - Management stated that growth will be driven by a combination of technology migration, ASP increases, and volume growth [84] Question: Competition and Strategic Initiatives - TSMC is focusing on a holistic approach to system performance, integrating front-end and back-end processes to enhance competitiveness [99] Question: Concerns about Prebuild Inventory - Management expressed no concerns about prebuild inventory levels, noting that inventory is at healthy seasonal levels [101]