Key Takeaways Procter & Gamble is leveraging digital retail and e-commerce to help reignite volume growth.PG invests in digital shelf execution, retail media and richer content to boost visibility and conversion.Advanced analytics and AI help PG target consumers, improve forecasting and support volume-led growth.Digital retail and e-commerce are becoming increasingly important levers for The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) as the consumer path to purchase shifts online and becomes more fragmented. With shoppe ...

Core Viewpoint - Church & Dwight Company, Inc. (CHD) is set to announce its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on January 30, with investors keen to see if the company can exceed market expectations [1] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is $1.64 billion, indicating a 3.5% growth from the previous year [2] - The consensus estimate for earnings has decreased by one cent over the past month to 84 cents per share, suggesting a 9.1% increase year-over-year [2] - CHD has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise average of 6% [2] Key Factors Influencing Q4 Performance - CHD's fourth-quarter performance is expected to be bolstered by strong momentum in its core brands, driven by effective innovation [3] - The company's diverse portfolio of value and premium products aligns well with current consumer preferences for affordability and high-quality personal care solutions [3] - Brands like Arm & Hammer have achieved record household penetration, particularly in the laundry segment, benefiting from a shift towards value offerings [3] Innovation and Marketing Strategies - The integration of Touchland has surpassed initial expectations, becoming a significant player in the hand sanitizer market [4] - CHD is utilizing its strong innovation pipeline, with new product launches in the Therabreath and Trojan lines anticipated to drive further growth [4] - Increased marketing investments are aimed at sustaining brand consumption and reinforcing competitive positioning [5] Operational Efficiency and Challenges - Productivity initiatives and supply chain strategies have helped mitigate inflation and tariff impacts, supporting profitability while allowing for continued investment in core brands [5] - However, the company is experiencing a decline in sales due to the winding down of discontinued businesses and negative trends in the vitamin and mineral supplement (VMS) sector [6] - The overall operating environment remains challenging due to high promotional activity in certain categories and constrained household finances affecting discretionary spending [6] Earnings Prediction Insights - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for CHD, with an Earnings ESP of -0.81% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [7][8]

Core Insights - Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD) has a market cap of $21.1 billion and is recognized for its strong brand portfolio, including ARM & HAMMER, Trojan, and OxiClean, emphasizing innovation and quality [1] - The company is expected to report an adjusted EPS of $0.73 for fiscal Q3 2025, reflecting a 7.6% decrease from $0.79 in the same quarter last year, although it has a history of exceeding Wall Street estimates [2] - For fiscal 2025, analysts forecast an adjusted EPS of $3.46, slightly up from $3.44 in fiscal 2024, with a projected growth of 7.5% year-over-year to $3.72 in fiscal 2026 [3] Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, Church & Dwight shares have declined by 16.3%, underperforming the S&P 500 Index's gain of 16.9% and the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund's decline of 3.2% [4] - The stock saw a marginal recovery on August 1 after reporting stronger-than-expected Q2 2025 results, with an adjusted EPS of $0.94 and revenues of $1.51 billion, driven by international sales and e-commerce, which constituted 23% of consumer sales [5] Analyst Ratings - The consensus rating for CHD stock is "Moderate Buy," with 22 analysts covering the stock: nine recommend "Strong Buy," one "Moderate Buy," eight "Hold," and four "Strong Sell." The average price target is $98.44, indicating a potential upside of 14.6% from current levels [6]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are closely monitoring recession indicators following the first federal funds rate cut of the year, with a struggling housing market and labor market warnings suggesting a potential recession, despite rising stock prices [1] Group 1: Church & Dwight (CHD) - Church & Dwight Co. Inc. is recognized for its essential household and personal care brands, which may provide insulation from a potential recession due to their perceived necessity [2][3] - The company has a long history of dividend increases, with a yield of 1.36% and a conservative payout ratio of 55.66%, making it a potential source of stability during volatile periods [3] - CHD shares have declined over 10% year-to-date, attributed to tariff impacts, but analysts predict a recovery with an upside potential of over 14% [4] Group 2: Spire Inc. (SR) - Spire Inc. is a regional natural gas utility firm expanding through the acquisition of Piedmont Natural Gas, which is expected to add over 200,000 customers and contribute to an estimated 8% bottom-line increase in the coming year [5] - The company maintains low operational costs, growing by less than 1% year-to-date, which provides protection against inflation, alongside a dividend yield of 4.08% and a payout ratio of 67.12% [6] Group 3: Chemed Corp. (CHE) - Chemed Corp. operates in home services and healthcare, with its brands Roto-Rooter and Vitas Healthcare providing recession-resistant services [8] - The company faces challenges such as hospice care caps and rising insurance costs, which have pressured CHE shares to their lowest P/E level in over four years, presenting a potential buying opportunity for long-term strength [9]

Core Insights - Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD) has a market capitalization of $22.2 billion and is a leading player in the household, personal care, and specialty products sectors, known for brands like ARM & HAMMER and Trojan [1][2] - The company operates across various segments including domestic, international, and specialty products, serving consumers through retail, e-commerce, and industrial distribution channels [2] Stock Performance - CHD shares have decreased by 21.7% from their 52-week high of $116.46 and have fallen over 6% in the past three months, underperforming the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), which declined by 1.9% during the same period [3][4] - Year-to-date, CHD stock is down 12.9%, while XLP has returned 1%. Over the past 52 weeks, CHD shares have decreased by 12.3%, compared to XLP's 5.4% drop [4] - The stock has been trading mostly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages since early April [4] Recent Financial Performance - On August 1, CHD reported stronger-than-expected Q2 2025 results, with adjusted EPS of $0.94 and revenues of $1.51 billion, driven by strong Consumer International sales and e-commerce, which accounted for 23% of consumer sales [5] Competitive Landscape - Rival The Clorox Company (CLX) has underperformed CHD, with CLX stock down 24.4% year-to-date and 26.1% over the past 52 weeks [6] - Despite CHD's recent underperformance, analysts maintain a moderately optimistic outlook, with a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and a mean price target of $101.94, representing an 11.7% premium to current levels [6]

Core Insights - The consumer-packaged goods industry features prominent players like Procter & Gamble (PG) and Church & Dwight (CHD), each with unique strategies and brand portfolios [1][2][3] Procter & Gamble (PG) - PG is a leading global company with a diverse product range, maintaining strong market share and customer loyalty despite economic challenges [4][5] - The company employs an integrated growth strategy focusing on product superiority, operational efficiency, and innovation, supported by effective digital marketing [5][7] - PG's supply chain is designed for efficiency and resilience, allowing quick responses to market demands and geopolitical disruptions [6][7] - Financially, PG shows strong free cash flow and consistent capital returns to shareholders, with projected sales growth of 2.6% and earnings growth of 3.6% in fiscal 2026 [13][23] - PG's stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 22.85, which is lower than CHD's 26.55, indicating a more attractive valuation [18][21] Church & Dwight (CHD) - CHD has demonstrated resilience, gaining volume share in 80% of its business despite macroeconomic pressures, with nine of its 14 major brands outperforming category growth [9][10] - The company focuses on disciplined portfolio management and innovation, recently divesting non-core businesses to concentrate on growth drivers [10][12] - CHD's marketing strategy is aggressive, with a significant portion of net sales allocated to marketing, and it is enhancing its digital presence as online sales grow [11][12] - Financially, CHD's EPS is projected to grow by 1.2% in 2025, while sales are expected to decline by 0.4% [16] - CHD's stock has underperformed compared to PG, with an 8.1% decline over the past year [17][22] Comparative Analysis - PG is positioned as a stronger investment due to its scale, diversified portfolio, and operational excellence, while CHD, despite its agility and niche performance, operates on a smaller scale and faces valuation challenges [22][23]