We came across a bearish thesis on RXO, Inc. on DF Research’s Substack by Keith Dalrymple. In this article, we will summarize the bears’ thesis on RXO. RXO, Inc.'s share was trading at $16.05 as of February 9th. RXO’s trailing and forward P/E were 715.33 and 322.58 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. 32 Landlocked Developing Countries Rasica/Shutterstock.com RXO, Inc. engages in truck brokerage business in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Asia, and Europe. RXO is facing a severe liquidity and ope ...

Q3 2025 Performance - RXO's Q3 2025 revenue was $1421 million [12] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $32 million [12] - Q3 2025 adjusted diluted EPS was $001 [25] - Q3 adjusted free cash flow conversion was 56% [28] - Gross margin was $234 million [12] Operational Highlights - Truckload (TL) volume was down 11% year-over-year (y/y), representing 69% of total volume, while Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) volume was up 43% y/y, accounting for 31% of volume [15] - Last Mile stop growth increased by 12% y/y [15] - Productivity gains in brokerage increased by 19% [15] Cost Savings Initiatives - Total annualized operating expense reductions are expected to be greater than $155 million, including over $60 million from Coyote synergies [18] - The company anticipates approximately 100 basis points of savings/avoidance in Cost of Purchased Transportation (COPT) [17] Q4 2025 Outlook - Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $20 million and $30 million [51] - Brokerage volume is expected to decrease by a low-single-digit percentage y/y [51] - Brokerage gross margin is anticipated to be in the range of 12%-13% [51] Capital Structure - Net debt stood at $395 million [32] - Gross leverage was 24x, and net leverage was 23x [33]