Core Viewpoint - The joint U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran poses a significant risk of oil supply disruption in the Middle East, which could potentially lead to a global economic recession [1] Oil Market Impact - Traders are currently underestimating the threat of Iranian retaliation to the U.S. attack, which could significantly impact oil prices [2] - Crude oil future prices are expected to rise by $5 to $7 per barrel following the attack, with Brent crude prices recently settling at $72.48 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate at $67.02 per barrel [3] Strait of Hormuz Significance - Iran's potential actions could make the Strait of Hormuz unsafe for commercial traffic, possibly driving oil prices above $100 per barrel [4] - The Strait of Hormuz is crucial, with over 14 million barrels per day flowing through it in 2025, accounting for a third of the world's total seaborne crude exports [5] Global Economic Consequences - A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could guarantee a global recession, as it is a vital route for oil and liquid natural gas exports [5][7] - Hoarding behavior is expected from major Asian oil importers if the Strait is closed, leading to intense bidding wars and further price increases [8] Alternative Supply Routes - Only a small fraction of crude passing through the Strait can be redirected, with existing pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE providing limited alternatives [9] Military Actions and Insurance Implications - Iran's missile strikes on U.S. bases in the region could disrupt traffic through the Strait, affecting shipping and insurance rates for tanker travel [10][11] Strategic Reserves and Crisis Management - The U.S. could utilize its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which currently holds about 415 million barrels, to mitigate price spikes [12] - However, the scale and duration of a full crisis in the Strait of Hormuz could exceed the offsets provided by strategic stocks [13]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices remain steady as traders evaluate supply risks amid U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and Iranian military drills in the Strait of Hormuz [1] Oil Market Overview - Brent crude futures decreased by 0.2% to $68.59 per barrel, following a 1.3% increase on the previous day [1] - U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 1.34% to $63.73 per barrel, reflecting price movements from the previous day due to the U.S. Presidents Day holiday [1] - The market is unsettled due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in the Middle East and the Ukraine situation [1] Geopolitical Factors - Iran's military drills in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil export route, have raised concerns about potential supply disruptions [1] - OPEC+ is considering increasing oil output from spare capacity in response to potential disruptions, aiming to prepare for peak summer demand [1] Future Price Projections - Citi forecasts that if Brent crude remains in the $65 to $70 per barrel range due to Russian supply disruptions, OPEC+ may respond by increasing output [1] - The expectation is that both Iran and Russia-Ukraine deals could occur by summer, potentially leading to a decline in Brent prices to $60-62 per barrel [1]

Skip to main content Exclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionalsLearn more aboutRefinitiv Oil drifts ahead of US-Iran nuclear talks SINGAPORE, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Oil prices traded sideways on Monday ahead of talks between Washington and Tehran, with concerns about Iran-U.S. tensions disrupting oil flows keeping a floor under prices, while OPEC+ leans in favour of resuming output hikes from April. Brent crude futures edged down 3 cents to $67.72 a barrel by 0156 GMT after closing 23 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are rising due to escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, overshadowing a significant increase in U.S. crude inventories [1] Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil futures increased by 34 cents, or 0.49%, reaching $69.74 per barrel [1] - U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by 37 cents, or 0.57%, to $65.00 per barrel [1] - Both benchmarks had settled higher the previous day, with Brent gaining 0.87% and WTI gaining over 1.05% [1] U.S.-Iran Relations - U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that no definitive agreement was reached with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding Iran, but negotiations will continue [1] - Trump mentioned the possibility of sending a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East if a deal with Iran is not achieved [1] - Indirect talks between U.S. and Iranian diplomats took place last week, with the next round of talks yet to be scheduled [1] U.S. Economic Indicators - U.S. job growth unexpectedly accelerated in January, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%, indicating economic health [1] - The resilient U.S. economy is supporting expectations for oil demand [1] Crude Inventory Data - U.S. crude inventories rose by 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels last week, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of a 793,000-barrel increase [1] - Despite the inventory build, global oil inventory increases have generally been below expectations since the start of the year [1] Market Outlook - Oil prices are likely to remain biased to the upside due to the U.S.-Iran situation, tighter sanctions on Russian oil, and expectations of reduced exports [1]

Group 1 - Oil prices gained about 2% on Wednesday, with Brent crude oil futures up $1.39, or 2.02%, at $70.19 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.34, or nearly 2.1%, to $65.30 [1] - Ongoing tensions in the Middle East continue to support prices, although there has been no supply disruption so far [2] - A slightly weaker dollar is helping prices higher, as a stronger U.S. currency negatively impacts demand for dollar-denominated crude from foreign buyers [3] Group 2 - Crude draws from the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub and from Fujairah indicate a tight market, supporting prices [4] - OPEC's monthly report left supply-demand expectations largely unchanged but noted a projected drop in global oil demand for the wider group's crude by 400,000 barrels per day in the second quarter compared to the first [4] - U.S. crude inventories rose by 13.4 million barrels in the week ended February 6, according to American Petroleum Institute figures [6]

Market Performance - The BSE Sensex traded 144 points higher, or 0.2%, at 84,210, while the Nifty 50 was up by 55 points to start the day at 25,922, or 0.21% higher [1][11] - The Nifty Smallcap index outperformed the frontline gauges, advancing 0.55% after surging 2.65% in the previous session [11] Key Stock Movements - On the Sensex, Titan Company, Sun Pharma, NTPC, Axis Bank, and Bharti Airtel were among the top gainers, rising up to 1.5% [2][11] - Laggards included HCL Tech, Bajaj Finance, IndiGo, and Asian Paints, which fell in the range of 0.5%-1% [11] Investment Trends - Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) net bought shares worth Rs 2,255 crore on February 9, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of just Rs 4.15 crore [5][12] - VK Vijayakumar of Geojit Investments noted strengthening market tailwinds as economic growth prospects improve, particularly with a revival in private capital expenditure [12] Economic Indicators - Data from a sample of listed companies showed a 13.1% year-on-year rise in fixed assets in H1FY26, indicating a pickup in private investment [12] - The improving performance of the broader market, especially in small caps, could enhance retail investor sentiment [12] Global Market Context - U.S. equities ended higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining momentum as technology stocks stabilized after a previous selloff [6][12] - Asian markets were mixed, with Japan's Nikkei 225 extending its post-election rally to fresh highs, benefiting from the "Takaichi trade" [7][12] Commodity Prices - Oil prices edged lower, with Brent crude futures slipping 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $68.79 per barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude declining 23 cents, or 0.4%, to $64.13 per barrel [9][12] Currency Exchange - The Indian rupee opened 0.05% higher at 90.71 against the U.S. dollar, compared to the previous close of 90.7575 [10][12]

By Katya Golubkova TOKYO, Feb 5 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Thursday after the U.S. and Iran agreed to hold talks in Oman on Friday, easing concerns of a ​potential military conflict between them that could disrupt supply from the key Middle East-producing region. Brent ‌crude futures fell $1, or 1.4%, to $68.47 per barrel at 0152 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell 91 cents, ‌or also 1.4%, to trade at $64.23. Oil prices surged about 3% on Wednesday after a media report suggested the ...

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell on Thursday after the U.S. and Iran agreed to hold talks in Oman on Friday, despite differences about the agenda, amid heightened tensions as the U.S. bu... ...

Market Overview - Wall Street is expected to experience another decline, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.8%, S&P 500 futures down 0.5%, and Dow futures down 0.2% [3] - Oil prices have dropped over 5%, marking the largest single-session decline in over six months, influenced by President Trump's comments on potential de-escalation with Iran [5] - Spot gold has decreased by 3.6% to $4,710, following a nearly 10% crash on Friday when prices fell below $5,000 an ounce [3] Government Shutdown - A partial government shutdown began early Saturday, despite the Senate passing a funding package. House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed confidence that the shutdown will end by Tuesday [4] Oil Market - Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices are both down in the 5% range due to eased military strike fears following Trump's remarks [5] - Analysts noted that the shift in messaging has reduced concerns about supply disruptions, although tensions remain high with Iran's warnings of a potential "regional war" [6] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin briefly dipped below support but recovered to around $75,000, with over $850 million in bullish bets liquidated in a few hours, totaling nearly $2.5 billion in losses [7][8] - The crypto market experienced forced selling, with $510 million in leveraged positions wiped out, primarily affecting long trades [9] - Major tokens like Ether fell over 8%, while BNB, XRP, and Solana dropped between 4% and 6% [9]

Market Overview - Wall Street is expected to experience another decline, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.8%, S&P 500 futures down 0.5%, and Dow futures down 0.2% [3] - Spot gold prices have decreased by 3.6% to $4,710, following a nearly 10% drop on Friday when prices fell below $5,000 per ounce [3] - Silver prices are down 4% at $81 [3] Government Shutdown - A partial government shutdown began early Saturday, despite the Senate passing a funding package. House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed confidence that the shutdown will end by Tuesday [4] Oil Market - Oil prices have dropped over 5%, marking the largest single-session decline in over six months, following President Trump's comments indicating potential de-escalation in talks with Iran [5] - Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude are both down in the 5% range, retreating from multi-month highs [5][6] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin briefly fell below support but recovered to around $75,000, with over $850 million in bullish bets liquidated in a few hours, totaling nearly $2.5 billion in losses [7][8] - The crypto market experienced forced selling, with $510 million in leveraged positions wiped out, primarily affecting long trades [9]