Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $75,980 as U.S. desks opened on Feb. 4, 2026, with traders anchoring downside risk to the 200-week EMA near $68,400 after four straight red monthly candles. Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau, framed the immediate trigger as $74,400 (the “April lows” referenced in his X post), then $70,000 as the next shelf “just above” the $69,000 prior ATH, before a deeper capitulation pocket at $55,700 to $58,200 that he tied to the average realized price band plus the 200-week MA. “Breaking below ...

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant decline, with major assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP reaching multi-month lows, leading to increased liquidations [1][2][3] Price Movements - Bitcoin has dropped 8% in the last day to $77,195, marking a nine-month low and a weekly decline of over 13%, with a total decrease of nearly 39% since its peak above $126,000 in October [1] - Ethereum has fallen 13% to $2,362, down 20% over the past week, and has lost 52% of its value since peaking near $5,000 in August [2] - XRP is down 10% to $1.58, while other altcoins like Solana and Dogecoin have also seen significant declines of 14% and 13%, respectively [2] Liquidations and Market Sentiment - Futures traders faced substantial losses, with $2.53 billion in liquidations, predominantly from long positions, indicating a bearish market sentiment [3] - Ethereum accounted for nearly half of the liquidations at $1.14 billion, followed by Bitcoin at $765 million [3] - Market predictions show a growing bearish sentiment for Bitcoin, with a 65% chance of falling to $69,000, an increase of 22% in bearish odds over the last day [4] Market Drivers - The recent market downturn is attributed to volatility driven by fears of a U.S. government shutdown and concerns over a potential bubble in AI investments [5] - Approximately $1.5 billion in assets exited U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in the past week, indicating a shift away from risk-on assets, with Ethereum ETFs losing $327 million [5] Precious Metals Reaction - Precious metals like gold and silver saw a surge to all-time highs earlier in the week, reflecting a risk-off attitude, although they experienced sharp declines on Friday [6]

Core Viewpoint - Charles Hoskinson predicts Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by mid-2026, a target that has sparked significant market discussion and analysis [6][22]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Hoskinson's prediction was made at the TOKEN2049 event and reiterated in various institutional interviews, emphasizing a framework based on institutional access and regulatory progress [2][6]. - Bitcoin is currently trading around $90,000-$92,000, reflecting a 6% increase from December 2025, making Hoskinson's prediction ambitious as it implies a near-tripling in price within six months [5][6]. - Wall Street consensus estimates for Bitcoin are significantly lower, ranging from $143,000 to $170,000, indicating skepticism about Hoskinson's target [7][16]. Group 2: Factors Supporting the Bull Case - The first pillar of Hoskinson's thesis is supply pressure, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs controlling over $117 billion in BTC, representing about 7% of total supply, and new issuance declining post-halving [10][11]. - Institutional demand is expected to grow, with projections of Bitcoin ETF inflows reaching $180-220 billion by late 2026, driven by renewed interest from institutions [11][12]. - Regulatory developments, such as the Clarity Act and potential faster ETF approvals, are seen as catalysts that could enhance institutional participation in the Bitcoin market [13]. Group 3: Challenges and Bear Case - The aggressive nature of the $250,000 target requires conditions to align more rapidly than most institutional models predict, highlighting the gap between bullish narratives and Wall Street consensus [15][16]. - Major banks have set their price targets well below Hoskinson's, with Citigroup estimating $143,000 and JPMorgan at $170,000, reflecting a cautious outlook on Bitcoin's price trajectory [16][17]. - Federal Reserve policies are expected to support price moderation rather than acceleration, with only one rate cut projected for 2026, which may hinder rapid price increases [18]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Hoskinson's $250,000 target should be viewed as an upside scenario rather than a guaranteed outcome, with a more balanced view suggesting a range of $120,000-$150,000 by late 2026 [22]. - Investors are advised to monitor institutional demand through ETF flows and consider dollar-cost averaging to manage exposure without chasing extreme price targets [22]. - The $100,000 mark is identified as a critical level for institutional demand, with a sustained break above it signaling potential for higher targets [23].

Core Insights - Bitcoin demand has weakened recently, with ETF holdings declining and large investors accumulating more slowly, indicating a potential bear market [1][2][4] - The report suggests that most of the demand growth cycle for Bitcoin has passed, leading to bearish price effects [2][4] - Bitcoin's price has dropped 30% from its all-time high of over $126,000, currently trading just above $88,000 [2][5] ETF Holdings and Investor Behavior - U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs became net sellers in Q4 2025, with holdings decreasing by approximately 24,000 BTC, equivalent to around $2.12 billion [3] - There has been weaker growth among addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, which includes ETFs and corporate treasury accounts [3][4] Price Trends and Market Indicators - Bitcoin has crossed below its 365-day moving average, a significant technical threshold that historically indicates a transition from bull to bear markets [4] - Historical patterns suggest that downturns typically follow periods of peak demand growth, with a potential cycle low projected at $56,000, representing a 55% drop from the all-time high [5][6] - Intermediate price support is identified around the $70,000 level [5] Market Context and Future Outlook - The report highlights a record $19 billion liquidation event in October, contributing to the recent declines in Bitcoin and other top assets [6] - Despite the bearish outlook, some analysts maintain bullish perspectives for Bitcoin into 2026, suggesting that traditional price cycles may no longer apply [6]

Core Insights - Bitcoin's market cycle has transitioned into a new phase, indicating demand exhaustion and a potential shift into bear market territory according to CryptoQuant's latest report [1] Demand Growth Analysis - Bitcoin demand growth has significantly slowed since early October 2025, falling below its long-term trend [2] - The current cycle has experienced three major demand waves: the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, optimism surrounding the U.S. presidential election, and increased interest from Bitcoin Treasury Companies [2] - With these catalysts now priced in, incremental demand has decreased, removing a crucial source of price support that previously sustained upward momentum [3] Institutional and Large-Holder Behavior - Institutional demand has shifted from accumulation to distribution, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reducing net holdings by approximately 24,000 BTC in Q4 2025, contrasting with strong net buying in Q4 2024 [4] - Onchain data indicates that addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC are growing below historical trends, reminiscent of patterns observed before the 2022 bear market [5] Derivatives Market Insights - Derivatives data shows that funding rates in perpetual futures have dropped to their lowest level since December 2023, indicating a reduced willingness among traders to maintain leveraged long positions [6] - Such conditions are historically more aligned with bear market regimes, reflecting declining risk appetite among market participants [7] Technical Analysis - Bitcoin has broken below its 365-day moving average, a critical long-term indicator that has historically differentiated between bull and bear market conditions [8] - The four-year cycle of Bitcoin is primarily driven by demand expansions and contractions rather than halving events [8]

Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to break free from its recent range-bound trading pattern. After dipping to a seven-month low of $82,221 in mid-November, the leading cryptocurrency has hovered close to the $90,000 mark for the past two weeks. At press time, BTC was trading at $91,084, up 1.3% in the past 24 hours. Amid the volatility, British multinational bank Standard Chartered has sharply reduced its long-term price projections for Bitcoin. Standard Chartered trims Bitcoin targets The banking giant now ...

Market Sentiment - The crypto market has entered a state of extreme fear, with Alternative.me's Fear & Greed Index dropping to 22 from 64 in just one week, indicating a significant shift in trader sentiment [3][9] - CoinMarketCap's Crypto Fear and Greed Index also fell to 28 from 54, reflecting widespread caution among traders [3] Bitcoin Performance - Bitcoin is currently hovering just above $110,000, struggling to maintain key support levels amid renewed US–China trade tensions, which have dampened risk appetite [4] - The price of gold has reached new record highs above $4,230 per ounce, indicating a flight to traditional safe-haven assets [4] ETF and Derivatives Data - U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced withdrawals of $94 million on Wednesday, continuing a trend of outflows [5] - Total liquidations in the derivatives market exceeded $418 million over the past 24 hours, with long positions outnumbering shorts by more than 2.4 to 1, suggesting many leveraged traders were caught off guard [5] On-Chain Data - Long-term holders have sold approximately 265,700 BTC in the past month, marking the largest outflow since January, interpreted as profit-taking amid increased volatility [6] - This trend indicates rising caution among veteran investors, contributing to a bearish outlook for the cryptocurrency [6] Future Outlook - Trader Tony "The Bull" Severino suggests that Bitcoin may be at a critical turning point, with the next 100 days potentially determining whether it enters a parabolic rally or ends its current bull cycle [7] - The Bollinger Bands indicator on Bitcoin's weekly chart has tightened significantly, often a precursor to sharp price movements [7] - Severino warns of potential "head fakes," or false breakouts, noting that Bitcoin recently failed to break above the upper band with strength after briefly touching $126,000, indicating a possible dip before any sustained rally [8]

Group 1 - Bitcoin's price has decreased by 1.4% in the last 24 hours, settling at $121,305, despite a 3.3% increase over the week and strong institutional demand reflected in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows [1][3] - Bitcoin dominance has risen to 58.58%, the highest since June, as traders shift towards safer assets amid U.S. debt ceiling concerns and a stronger dollar, while Ethereum's dominance has dropped to 12.66% [2] - U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $2.2 billion in net inflows this week, marking the best performance since April, which has helped Bitcoin surpass a key resistance range [3] Group 2 - The correlation between cryptocurrency and the S&P 500 has increased to 0.83, the highest since August, indicating a cautious risk sentiment among traders [4] - Zcash has outperformed with a 33% increase in the last 24 hours and over 330% in the past month, while Solana-based meme coin Useless has reached a new all-time high, suggesting potential investment opportunities in these assets [5]

Core Insights - Bitcoin's market capitalization has reached approximately $2.4 trillion, surpassing the total market capitalization of the five largest banks globally [1][3] - Over the past five years, Bitcoin has appreciated over 1,000%, while the largest banks have seen significantly lower returns [2][4] - Institutional interest in Bitcoin is increasing, driven by demand for exchange-traded products and its recognition as a new asset class [5][6] Market Capitalization Comparison - The five largest banks combined have a market capitalization of just over $2.05 trillion, which is about 17.1% smaller than Bitcoin's market cap, creating a gap of roughly $350 billion [3] - JPMorgan Chase has a market capitalization of $845.7 billion with a five-year gain of 214%, while Wells Fargo and Bank of America have market caps of approximately $260 billion and $373.9 billion, respectively, with gains of 235% [2][3] Institutional Demand and New Asset Class - Research indicates that cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, are viewed as a new asset class distinct from traditional stocks and bonds, with investors diversifying their portfolios to manage risk [5] - The introduction of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has facilitated easier access for brokers to hold Bitcoin, with BlackRock's ETF accumulating $93.5 billion in assets and experiencing significant weekly inflows [6]

Core Insights - The digital asset market is evolving into a more diverse and institutionally engaged environment, emphasizing execution over mere exposure [1] - Recent trends indicate a significant shift in capital flows, particularly in U.S. spot ETFs, highlighting the importance of active management in a fragmented market [2][3] Market Dynamics - Innovation is outpacing index construction, leading to structural inefficiencies and cross-market dislocations, with macro conditions remaining stable [2] - U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced notable capital rotation, with daily inflows and outflows reflecting active trading strategies [3] Investment Opportunities - Opportunities in the digital asset market require a multi-dimensional understanding of both traditional and digital assets, focusing on high-conviction strategies rather than sentiment-driven trades [4] - The expansion of crypto credit markets is creating differentiated opportunities for active managers to price risk effectively, particularly as fiat liquidity tightens [6]