But credibility doesn't equal objectivity. Hoskinson is structurally bullish on crypto, and his incentives align with a risk-on environment. Markets listen because Hoskinson understands both code and capital—they discount his forecast because timing perfection is rare, and the value of his call lies in the framework, not the exact price.His $250,000 by mid-2026 call was delivered at Bloomberg's TOKEN2049 Singapore event in October 2025 and reinforced in institutional-facing interviews, where narratives are ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin demand has weakened recently, with ETF holdings declining and large investors accumulating more slowly, indicating a potential bear market [1][2][4] - The report suggests that most of the demand growth cycle for Bitcoin has passed, leading to bearish price effects [2][4] - Bitcoin's price has dropped 30% from its all-time high of over $126,000, currently trading just above $88,000 [2][5] ETF Holdings and Investor Behavior - U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs became net sellers in Q4 2025, with holdings decreasing by approximately 24,000 BTC, equivalent to around $2.12 billion [3] - There has been weaker growth among addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, which includes ETFs and corporate treasury accounts [3][4] Price Trends and Market Indicators - Bitcoin has crossed below its 365-day moving average, a significant technical threshold that historically indicates a transition from bull to bear markets [4] - Historical patterns suggest that downturns typically follow periods of peak demand growth, with a potential cycle low projected at $56,000, representing a 55% drop from the all-time high [5][6] - Intermediate price support is identified around the $70,000 level [5] Market Context and Future Outlook - The report highlights a record $19 billion liquidation event in October, contributing to the recent declines in Bitcoin and other top assets [6] - Despite the bearish outlook, some analysts maintain bullish perspectives for Bitcoin into 2026, suggesting that traditional price cycles may no longer apply [6]

Bitcoin’s latest market cycle has entered a new phase, with onchain and derivatives data pointing to demand exhaustion and a transition into bear market territory, according to CryptoQuant’s latest Crypto Weekly Report. After multiple demand-driven rallies since 2023, the firm says the structural pillars that supported higher prices are now weakening. Demand Growth Falls Below Trend CryptoQuant’s analysis shows that Bitcoin demand growth has decisively slowed since early October 2025, falling below its ...

Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to break free from its recent range-bound trading pattern. After dipping to a seven-month low of $82,221 in mid-November, the leading cryptocurrency has hovered close to the $90,000 mark for the past two weeks. At press time, BTC was trading at $91,084, up 1.3% in the past 24 hours. Amid the volatility, British multinational bank Standard Chartered has sharply reduced its long-term price projections for Bitcoin. Standard Chartered trims Bitcoin targets The banking giant now ...

Market Sentiment - The crypto market has entered a state of extreme fear, with Alternative.me's Fear & Greed Index dropping to 22 from 64 in just one week, indicating a significant shift in trader sentiment [3][9] - CoinMarketCap's Crypto Fear and Greed Index also fell to 28 from 54, reflecting widespread caution among traders [3] Bitcoin Performance - Bitcoin is currently hovering just above $110,000, struggling to maintain key support levels amid renewed US–China trade tensions, which have dampened risk appetite [4] - The price of gold has reached new record highs above $4,230 per ounce, indicating a flight to traditional safe-haven assets [4] ETF and Derivatives Data - U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced withdrawals of $94 million on Wednesday, continuing a trend of outflows [5] - Total liquidations in the derivatives market exceeded $418 million over the past 24 hours, with long positions outnumbering shorts by more than 2.4 to 1, suggesting many leveraged traders were caught off guard [5] On-Chain Data - Long-term holders have sold approximately 265,700 BTC in the past month, marking the largest outflow since January, interpreted as profit-taking amid increased volatility [6] - This trend indicates rising caution among veteran investors, contributing to a bearish outlook for the cryptocurrency [6] Future Outlook - Trader Tony "The Bull" Severino suggests that Bitcoin may be at a critical turning point, with the next 100 days potentially determining whether it enters a parabolic rally or ends its current bull cycle [7] - The Bollinger Bands indicator on Bitcoin's weekly chart has tightened significantly, often a precursor to sharp price movements [7] - Severino warns of potential "head fakes," or false breakouts, noting that Bitcoin recently failed to break above the upper band with strength after briefly touching $126,000, indicating a possible dip before any sustained rally [8]

Group 1 - Bitcoin's price has decreased by 1.4% in the last 24 hours, settling at $121,305, despite a 3.3% increase over the week and strong institutional demand reflected in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows [1][3] - Bitcoin dominance has risen to 58.58%, the highest since June, as traders shift towards safer assets amid U.S. debt ceiling concerns and a stronger dollar, while Ethereum's dominance has dropped to 12.66% [2] - U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $2.2 billion in net inflows this week, marking the best performance since April, which has helped Bitcoin surpass a key resistance range [3] Group 2 - The correlation between cryptocurrency and the S&P 500 has increased to 0.83, the highest since August, indicating a cautious risk sentiment among traders [4] - Zcash has outperformed with a 33% increase in the last 24 hours and over 330% in the past month, while Solana-based meme coin Useless has reached a new all-time high, suggesting potential investment opportunities in these assets [5]

Core Insights - Bitcoin's market capitalization has reached approximately $2.4 trillion, surpassing the total market capitalization of the five largest banks globally [1][3] - Over the past five years, Bitcoin has appreciated over 1,000%, while the largest banks have seen significantly lower returns [2][4] - Institutional interest in Bitcoin is increasing, driven by demand for exchange-traded products and its recognition as a new asset class [5][6] Market Capitalization Comparison - The five largest banks combined have a market capitalization of just over $2.05 trillion, which is about 17.1% smaller than Bitcoin's market cap, creating a gap of roughly $350 billion [3] - JPMorgan Chase has a market capitalization of $845.7 billion with a five-year gain of 214%, while Wells Fargo and Bank of America have market caps of approximately $260 billion and $373.9 billion, respectively, with gains of 235% [2][3] Institutional Demand and New Asset Class - Research indicates that cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, are viewed as a new asset class distinct from traditional stocks and bonds, with investors diversifying their portfolios to manage risk [5] - The introduction of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has facilitated easier access for brokers to hold Bitcoin, with BlackRock's ETF accumulating $93.5 billion in assets and experiencing significant weekly inflows [6]

Core Insights - The digital asset market is evolving into a more diverse and institutionally engaged environment, emphasizing execution over mere exposure [1] - Recent trends indicate a significant shift in capital flows, particularly in U.S. spot ETFs, highlighting the importance of active management in a fragmented market [2][3] Market Dynamics - Innovation is outpacing index construction, leading to structural inefficiencies and cross-market dislocations, with macro conditions remaining stable [2] - U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced notable capital rotation, with daily inflows and outflows reflecting active trading strategies [3] Investment Opportunities - Opportunities in the digital asset market require a multi-dimensional understanding of both traditional and digital assets, focusing on high-conviction strategies rather than sentiment-driven trades [4] - The expansion of crypto credit markets is creating differentiated opportunities for active managers to price risk effectively, particularly as fiat liquidity tightens [6]