Economic Developments - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reported a rise in total sight deposits to CHF 452.7 billion for the week ending February 13, up from CHF 447.4 billion the previous week, indicating a shift in liquidity management [2][8] - Japan's Q4 GDP grew by only 0.2% annualized, significantly below the market expectation of 1.6%, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to continue its hawkish tightening path due to persistent inflationary pressures [3][8] Corporate Developments - AI safety company Anthropic opened a new operations hub in Bengaluru, India, following a $30 billion funding round that valued the company at $380 billion, with India becoming the second-largest market for its Claude AI [4][8] - UBS Group AG faced backlash in China after its UBS SDIC Silver Futures Fund LOF switched its valuation benchmark, resulting in a 31.5% drop in net asset value, leading to a temporary suspension of trading [5][8] Geopolitical Trends - Iran is negotiating the removal of U.S. sanctions, offering to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium in exchange for economic relief, including joint investments in oil and gas fields and civilian aircraft purchases [6][8] - Thailand's economy is showing signs of a U-shaped recovery, with a maintained GDP growth forecast of 2.0% for 2026, supported by a resilient manufacturing base and a shift towards high-value medical tourism [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Silver futures have surged to a historic $75 per ounce, driven by acute physical shortages in China and a retail buying frenzy, marking a significant rally in the metal's price [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Month-to-date, COMEX silver is up approximately 30%, on track for its best monthly performance since December 1979 [1]. - Year-to-date, silver has gained nearly 155%, the strongest annual performance since the late 1970s [2]. - The UBS SDIC Silver Futures Fund LOF has seen a 187% increase this year, compared to roughly 145% gains in Shanghai-traded silver futures [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - China is experiencing a literal shortage of physical silver, leading to tightened conditions in the world's largest silver-consuming nation [2]. - The UBS SDIC fund's manager expressed concerns about potential heavy losses for investors if the bull market reverses, as the fund was trading at a premium exceeding 60% to its underlying assets [6]. - Social media has played a significant role in driving retail interest, with platforms like Xiaohongshu circulating arbitrage tutorials [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Robert Kiyosaki suggests that silver could reach $200 by 2026, framing the current rally as part of a larger structural shift rather than a speculative peak [9]. - Economic research indicates that the surge in precious metals reflects a transformation in the global monetary system, moving towards a multipolar order [10]. - Strong industrial demand, particularly from solar panels and electric vehicles, could push silver prices to test $85–$100 per ounce as structural deficits widen [11].

Core Viewpoint - The value of China's only pure-play silver fund, UBS SDIC Silver Futures Fund LOF, experienced a significant decline of 10%, marking the end of a rapid bull run that had raised concerns from the fund's manager about sustainability [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Management Actions - The UBS SDIC Silver Futures Fund LOF saw a dramatic drop after weeks of gains, which were described as "unsustainable" by the fund's manager [2][4]. - The fund had previously hit its maximum daily limit of 10% for three consecutive days, prompting UBS SDIC Fund Management Co. to impose stricter rules on new subscriptions, reducing the limit for Class C shares from 500 yuan ($14.25) to 100 yuan [3]. - The fund has recorded an impressive gain of nearly 220% this year, significantly outpacing the 128% increase in Shanghai-traded silver futures [6]. Group 2: Market Context and Investor Sentiment - The surge in the silver fund's value was driven by heightened global interest in precious metals, with spot silver reaching a record high of $72.70 an ounce and on track for its best annual performance since 1979 [2][5]. - The premium of the fund over its underlying assets, silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, rose to nearly 62%, up from 7% at the beginning of the month, indicating a potential risk of steep losses if silver futures decline [4][6]. - The intense investor interest in silver has also been reflected in the performance of other precious metals like gold, platinum, and palladium, as well as in other Chinese funds linked to these metals [5].