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国电南瑞:2025 年上半年业绩,复习,美国压力下仍有积极进展;维持买入评级(评级:持有,标 CL )
2025-08-28 02:12
Summary of NARI Technology (600406.SS) 2Q25 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NARI Technology (600406.SS) - **Industry**: Power Equipment and Grid Automation Key Financial Results - **2Q25 Revenue**: Rmb 15,348 million, +24% YoY - **Gross Profit**: Rmb 4,260 million, +8% YoY - **EBIT**: Rmb 2,636 million, +12% YoY - **Net Profit**: Rmb 3,137 million, +7% YoY - **Gross Margin (GPM)**: 28%, down 4 percentage points (pp) YoY - **Operating Margin (OPM)**: 17%, down 2 pp YoY - **Net Margin (NPM)**: 15%, down 2 pp YoY - **1H25 Revenue**: Rmb 28,243 million, +24% YoY - **1H25 GPM**: 28%, down 2.6 pp YoY Segment Performance - **Grid Automation Segment**: - Revenue: Rmb 12,225 million, +28% YoY in 1H25 - GPM: 30.3%, down 3 pp YoY - **Grid Digitalization Segment**: - Revenue: Rmb 3,900 million, +4% YoY in 1H25 - GPM: 23.4%, down 3 pp YoY - **Power Generation Segment**: - Revenue: Rmb 6,541 million, +30% YoY in 1H25 - GPM: 21.6%, down 2 pp YoY - **Industrial Internet Segment**: - Revenue: Rmb 1,245 million, +3% YoY in 1H25 - GPM: 20.0%, down 3 pp YoY - **Overseas Business**: - Revenue: Rmb 1,987 million, +139% YoY in 1H25 - Newly signed overseas contracts grew 200% YoY Expense Management - **SG&A Expense**: 13% of total revenue in 1H25, down from 14.9% in 1H24 - **Cash Flow from Operations**: Rmb 2,809 million in 1H25, representing 95% of net profit Investment Thesis - NARI Technology is positioned as a leading player in the power equipment sector in China, with significant market shares in various segments (34%-70%). - Expected to benefit from China's power grid modernization, with projected revenue and net profit CAGR of 10% and 12% respectively from 2025 to 2030. - Anticipated catalysts include State Grid's work plans and the upcoming 15th Five-Year Energy/Grid Plan in 2026. Valuation and Risks - **12-Month Target Price**: Rmb 30.2, based on a P/E ratio of 25X for 2026E - **Key Risks**: - Lower-than-expected fiscal support from the State Grid - Delays in UHV project approvals Conclusion - Despite pressure on GPM, NARI Technology shows strong revenue growth and effective expense management, maintaining a positive outlook for future performance and investment potential. The company is rated as a "Buy" with significant upside potential.
国电南瑞:雅鲁藏布江水电项目或使长期每股收益提升约 4%;作为全面受益者买入国电南瑞-NARI Technology (.SS)_ Yarlung Zangbo Hydropower project could boost LT EPS by c.4%+; Buy Nari as all-round beneficiary
2025-07-22 01:59
Summary of NARI Technology (600406.SS) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NARI Technology - **Industry**: Hydropower and Electrical Equipment Key Points Yarlung Zangbo Hydropower Project - The Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project officially commenced on July 19, 2025, with an expected capacity of over 60GW and an investment of approximately Rmb1.2 trillion over 15 years, significantly surpassing the Three Gorges Dam project [1][6] - The annual investment for the Yarlung Zangbo project is estimated at Rmb80 billion, representing 7% of China's power generation investment and 13% of power grid investment in 2024 [1][6] NARI Technology's Position - NARI Technology is positioned as a key beneficiary of the Yarlung Zangbo project due to its leading market share in hydropower generation control technology (70%) and UHV converter valves (37%) [1][15] - If selected as a supplier, NARI's long-term EPS could increase by approximately 4% beyond 2030, driven by opportunities in hydropower generation control, UHV converter valves, and secondary equipment for transformation stations [1][8] Revenue Opportunities - NARI is projected to generate around Rmb7.7 billion in revenue from the hydropower control system, compared to Rmb1.8 billion in segment revenue in 2024, based on an average selling price (ASP) of Rmb184 million per GW [2][8] - The expected revenue from UHV converter valves is estimated at Rmb7.9 billion, with a timeline of 6+ years for realization [9][8] Investment and Market Analysis - The total investment for UHV transmission lines for the Yarlung Zangbo project is estimated at Rmb216 billion, with NARI expected to capture a significant portion of this market [9][11] - The project is anticipated to have a substantial impact on domestic power generation and grid investment, with NARI's revenue from the project expected to contribute to a 4% boost in EPS beyond 2030 [1][8] Timeline and Comparisons - The timeline for the Yarlung Zangbo project includes key milestones such as the start of turbine generator bidding in 2028 and UHV construction/tendering in 2030, with project completion expected by 2040 [11][12] - The Yarlung Zangbo project is projected to have three to four times the power generation capacity of the Three Gorges and Baihetan projects [11][12] Risks and Price Target - The 12-month price target for NARI Technology is set at Rmb31.80, indicating a potential upside of 38.7% from the current price of Rmb22.93 [18][16] - Key risks include lower-than-expected fiscal support and delays in UHV project approvals [16] Additional Insights - NARI's dominant market position and the scale of the Yarlung Zangbo project present significant growth opportunities, making it a compelling investment in the hydropower sector [1][15] - The expected increase in demand for secondary equipment related to transformation stations could further enhance NARI's revenue potential [1][15]
高盛:国电南瑞-2025 年第一季度订单量同比增长超 50%,预计 2025 年特高压业务收入翻倍,建议买入
Goldman Sachs· 2025-05-15 15:24
Investment Rating - The report rates NARI Technology as a "Buy" with a 12-month target price of Rmb31.8, implying a 39% upside based on an unchanged 25X 2026E P/E [1][12][15]. Core Insights - NARI Technology is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 13% year-on-year (yoy) in 2025E, surpassing its target of 12% yoy growth, supported by a backlog of Rmb50.7 billion and a strong order intake of over 50% yoy in 1Q25 [1][2][15]. - The company anticipates that its Ultra-High Voltage (UHV) revenue will double in 2025E, driven by significant project execution and new contracts [1][4][7]. - NARI Technology is positioned to benefit from China's structural smart grid needs, with a focus on overseas markets and new growth drivers such as AI integration and market-based electricity price reform [1][5][10][15]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Growth - The company targets Rmb64,500 million in revenue for 2025E, indicating a 12% yoy increase, marking a shift in guidance to a more conservative growth outlook after eight years [2][15]. - The 1Q25 revenue growth was reported at 16% yoy, with power grid automation growing by 25% yoy, primarily due to UHV revenue recognition [1][4]. Segment Performance - **Grid Automation**: Revenue in this segment was Rmb28.5 billion in 2024, with a growth expectation of over 10% yoy in 2025E, driven by UHV revenue [4]. - **Grid Digitalization**: This segment recorded Rmb12.4 billion in revenue in 2024, with a projected growth of close to 10% in 2025E, supported by national policies promoting AI integration and virtual power plants [5]. - **Power Generation**: Revenue reached Rmb12.2 billion in 2024, with a growth expectation of 14% yoy in 2025E, despite a moderation in installation growth [8]. - **Industrial Internet**: The segment faced a decline of 24% yoy in 2024 but is expected to return to growth in 2025E [9]. Overseas Business - NARI Technology's overseas revenue reached Rmb3.28 billion in 2024, a 135% yoy increase, contributing 6% to total revenue, with expectations for continued growth in 2025E [10][15]. Expense Management - The company guided an expense of Rmb7,741 million for 2025E, indicating a 19.6% yoy increase, primarily due to increased R&D investments [11][15]. Valuation and Financial Metrics - The report maintains earnings forecasts unchanged, with a focus on a stable margin profile supported by necessary investments in R&D and a reclassification of interest income [12][15].