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Should You Buy, Sell or Hold CCJ Stock Before Q2 Earnings Release?
ZACKSยท 2025-07-28 15:46
Core Insights - Cameco Corporation (CCJ) is set to report its second-quarter 2025 results on July 31, with projected revenues of $630.7 million, reflecting a 44.3% year-over-year growth, and earnings per share (EPS) estimated at 36 cents, indicating a 260% increase from the previous year [1][4]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cameco's second-quarter revenues is $630.7 million, which is a 44.3% increase from the same quarter last year [1]. - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is 36 cents, showing a significant improvement of 260% from the prior year's figure of 10% [1]. - Over the past 60 days, the earnings estimate has increased by 50% [1]. Earnings Surprise History - In the last four quarters, Cameco's earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate three times and exceeded it once, with an average negative earnings surprise of 48.50% [2][3]. Production and Sales Outlook - Cameco's uranium production is expected to be supported by its stakes in high-grade uranium mines, including a 69.8% stake in the McArthur River mine and an 83% stake in the Key Lake mill [7]. - The company anticipates uranium sales between 31 million and 34 million pounds in 2025, slightly down from 33.6 million pounds sold in the previous year [8]. - During Q1 2025, Cameco's share of uranium production reached 6 million pounds, a 3% year-over-year increase, with Q2 production expected to exceed 6.2 million pounds from the same period last year [9]. Cost and Pricing Factors - Uranium prices have faced pressure this year, averaging $72.59 per pound in Q2, down 17% year-over-year, but Cameco's revenues may benefit from fixed-price contracts [11]. - The average unit cost of production at McArthur River/Key Lake is expected to be higher, while costs at Cigar Lake are projected to decrease due to increased production [12]. Strategic Developments - Cameco's 49% stake in Westinghouse Electric Company is expected to contribute an additional $170 million to Q2 adjusted EBITDA, linked to Westinghouse's nuclear reactor construction projects [14]. - The company is actively working to lower administration, exploration, and operating costs, which may help mitigate the impact of rising costs on earnings [13]. Market Performance - Cameco shares have appreciated 75.3% over the past three months, significantly outperforming the industry average of 5.5% [16]. - The stock is currently trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 13.31, higher than the industry average of 1.24 and above its five-year median of 6.60 [18]. Industry Context - Geopolitical events and a global focus on climate change are creating favorable conditions for the nuclear power industry, with Cameco accounting for 16% of global uranium production in 2024 [20]. - Despite a strong balance sheet and investments to boost capacity, the current decline in uranium prices and changes to the Mineral Extraction Tax in Kazakhstan may impact earnings [21][23].