While Christmas is nearly a week away, there is still time to get packages shipped to arrive on time before the holiday. However, those shipping deadlines are rapidly approaching.  Each year, the major package delivery carriers post the deadlines that a package or mail needs to be shipped out to arrive by Christmas Eve. The deadlines vary depending on the specific shipping method.   With the deluge of packages expected during the holidays, UPS tried to encourage shoppers in September to shop and ship packag ...

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) has experienced significant stock declines, raising questions about potential buying opportunities amidst ongoing challenges in demand and economic uncertainty [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - UPS shares have declined 23.5% year-to-date, which is in line with the Zacks Transportation—Air Freight and Cargo industry's 21.1% fall and a 22.2% dip in shares of GXO Logistics [1]. - Over the past year, UPS shares have fallen 33.7%, worse than the industry's 27% decline, with GXO Logistics and FedEx down 32% and 23.2%, respectively [4]. Group 2: Factors Hurting UPS Stock - Demand Slowdown: UPS anticipates average daily volumes to decrease by 8.5% in 2025 compared to 2024, driven by a decline in shipping demand and a slowdown in online sales in the U.S. [5]. - Revenue Projections: For full-year 2025, UPS expects revenues of $89 billion, significantly below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $94.6 billion and lower than 2024's actuals of $91.1 billion [6]. - Economic Uncertainty: Rising inflation and tariff concerns have created market volatility, with fears of economic slowdown impacting UPS's outlook [7][8]. Group 3: Dividend Sustainability - UPS announced a 0.6% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.64 per share, raising concerns about the sustainability of this payout given an elevated dividend payout ratio of 84% [9]. - Free cash flow has been declining, with projections of $5.7 billion in 2025, barely covering expected dividend payments of approximately $5.5 billion [11]. Group 4: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - UPS stock is trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.93, which is considered expensive compared to industry peers [12]. - Recent earnings estimates for UPS have been revised downward, indicating a negative trend in earnings expectations for 2025 [16]. Group 5: Expansion Efforts - UPS is pursuing expansion by acquiring Estafeta, a Mexican express delivery company, and enhancing export services from Kyushu, which are seen as positive steps for long-term growth [18].