Core Insights - The article discusses the approaching shipping deadlines for packages to arrive by Christmas, emphasizing the urgency for consumers to ship early to ensure timely delivery [1][2]. Shipping Carrier Updates - UPS has encouraged early shopping and shipping since September due to the expected surge in package volume during the holiday season [2]. - The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) has increased its daily processing capacity at its largest facility in Los Angeles from 60 million to 88 million packages by adding over 600 new sorting machines [3][5]. - FedEx has outlined specific deadlines for various shipping options, with the last day for same-day delivery being December 24 and for overnight services being December 23 [8][9]. Specific Shipping Deadlines - **UPS Deadlines**: - Ground: Check online for specific deadlines based on location [5]. - 3 Day Select: December 19, 2025 [5]. - 2nd Day Air: December 22, 2025 [6]. - Next Day Air: December 23, 2025 [6]. - **FedEx Deadlines**: - SameDay: December 24 for same-day delivery options [8]. - Overnight services: December 23 [8]. - 2Day services: December 22 [9]. - Express Saver: December 19 [9]. - **USPS Deadlines**: - Ground Advantage: December 17 [12]. - First-Class Mail: December 17 [12]. - Priority Mail: December 18 [12]. - Priority Mail Express: December 20 [12]. - **USPS Deadlines for Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Territories**: - Ground Advantage: December 16 [13]. - First-Class Mail: December 17 [13].

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) has experienced significant stock declines, raising questions about potential buying opportunities amidst ongoing challenges in demand and economic uncertainty [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - UPS shares have declined 23.5% year-to-date, which is in line with the Zacks Transportation—Air Freight and Cargo industry's 21.1% fall and a 22.2% dip in shares of GXO Logistics [1]. - Over the past year, UPS shares have fallen 33.7%, worse than the industry's 27% decline, with GXO Logistics and FedEx down 32% and 23.2%, respectively [4]. Group 2: Factors Hurting UPS Stock - Demand Slowdown: UPS anticipates average daily volumes to decrease by 8.5% in 2025 compared to 2024, driven by a decline in shipping demand and a slowdown in online sales in the U.S. [5]. - Revenue Projections: For full-year 2025, UPS expects revenues of $89 billion, significantly below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $94.6 billion and lower than 2024's actuals of $91.1 billion [6]. - Economic Uncertainty: Rising inflation and tariff concerns have created market volatility, with fears of economic slowdown impacting UPS's outlook [7][8]. Group 3: Dividend Sustainability - UPS announced a 0.6% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.64 per share, raising concerns about the sustainability of this payout given an elevated dividend payout ratio of 84% [9]. - Free cash flow has been declining, with projections of $5.7 billion in 2025, barely covering expected dividend payments of approximately $5.5 billion [11]. Group 4: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - UPS stock is trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.93, which is considered expensive compared to industry peers [12]. - Recent earnings estimates for UPS have been revised downward, indicating a negative trend in earnings expectations for 2025 [16]. Group 5: Expansion Efforts - UPS is pursuing expansion by acquiring Estafeta, a Mexican express delivery company, and enhancing export services from Kyushu, which are seen as positive steps for long-term growth [18].