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GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Pound Sterling Sellers Refuse to Give Up Yet
Yahoo Finance· 2025-11-10 07:39
Group 1: Currency Movements - The Pound Sterling (GBP) reached seven-month lows near 1.3000 against the US Dollar (USD) before recovering some ground due to buyer intervention [1] - The USD strengthened significantly, reaching its highest level in five months against six major currency rivals, driven by safe-haven flows [1] - The GBP/USD pair faced downward pressure from broad USD strength, challenging the 1.3000 psychological level before staging a recovery later in the week [4] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Data - A "sell everything" theme emerged in the market as traders reacted to a correction in global indices following an AI-driven rally, leading to declines in US tech stocks and gold sales to cover equity losses [2] - The USD found support from reduced expectations of a December interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, following strong private sector employment and services activity data [3] - US private payrolls increased by 42,000 jobs in October, surpassing expectations, while the ISM Services PMI rose to 52.4, indicating solid new orders [4] Group 3: Labor Market Concerns - Concerns about the weakening US labor market were reignited, with a 183.1% monthly surge in layoffs reported, marking the worst October in over two decades [5] - The odds of a Fed rate cut next month increased to 69% following the latest jobs data, compared to a previous estimate of 62% [6] - The Bank of England maintained its key Bank Rate at 4%, with a narrow 5-4 vote, indicating that future rate cuts will depend on inflation outlook [6][7]
债市日报:4月28日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-04-28 07:58
Market Overview - The bond market continued its warm trend on April 28, with most government bond futures rising and interbank bond yields declining by approximately 1 basis point [1] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 103 billion yuan in the open market, indicating sufficient liquidity before the end of the month [1][5] - Analysts suggest that with a weakening fundamental outlook and increasingly accommodative monetary policy, there is potential for yields to break lower in the future [1] Bond Futures Performance - The closing prices for government bond futures showed an increase in the 30-year main contract by 0.30% to 120.180, while the 10-year main contract rose by 0.03% to 108.840 [2] - The yields on major interbank bonds also saw slight declines, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping by 0.85 basis points to 1.649% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down by 5.94 basis points to 3.7377% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly retreated, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 1.5 basis points to 1.32% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds showed an increase, with French bonds rising by 2.2 basis points to 3.185% [3] Primary Market Activity - The results of the Tianjin local bond auction showed strong demand, with bid-to-cover ratios exceeding 19 times for all issues [4] - The 7-year bond "25 Tianjin Bond 22" had a winning rate of 1.80% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 19.25 [4] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The central bank announced a 2.79 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net injection of 103 billion yuan for the day [5] - The deputy governor of the central bank indicated that adjustments to reserve requirements and interest rates would be made as necessary to maintain ample liquidity [6][7] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted a decline in overnight funding rates, suggesting that the rates should remain slightly below policy rates to support growth and credit expansion [8] - Huatai Fixed Income emphasized that the current fundamentals favor the bond market, recommending a buy-on-dips strategy [8] - Guosheng Fixed Income indicated that while the bond market may experience fluctuations, a downward breakthrough is more likely, with long bonds offering better value [8]