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Should Philip Morris Stock Be in Your Portfolio Ahead of Q2 Earnings?
ZACKSยท 2025-07-21 15:21
Core Viewpoint - Philip Morris International Inc. is expected to report growth in both revenue and earnings for the second quarter of 2025, with earnings anticipated to be released on July 22, before market opening [1]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is approximately $10.3 billion, reflecting an 8.3% increase from the same quarter last year [2]. - The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings has risen to $1.85 per share, indicating a 16.4% increase compared to the previous year [2]. Earnings Performance and Predictions - Philip Morris has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 3.6%, with the last quarter's earnings exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5% [3]. - The company has an Earnings ESP of -0.04% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [4]. Factors Influencing Q2 Earnings - Strong pricing strategies have been a significant driver of revenue and operating income growth, as smokers tend to accept price increases due to the addictive nature of cigarettes [5]. - Smoke-free products contributed to 44% of the gross profit in Q1 2025, highlighting the success of the IQOS ILUMA device and other innovations like ZYN nicotine pouches and VEEV ONE e-vapor [6]. Smoke-Free Product Growth - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total smoke-free product revenues for Q1 is $4,225.9 million, up from $3,530 million in the previous year [7]. - Management anticipates a 10% growth in IQOS HTU adjusted IMS for Q2, with ZYN shipments expected to maintain levels from Q1 [8]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts adjusted earnings between $1.80 and $1.85 for Q2, including a favorable currency impact of 6 cents per share [9][11]. Stock Performance - Philip Morris shares have increased by 9.7% over the past three months, underperforming the Zacks industry growth of 10.2% but lagging behind the S&P 500's 19.5% increase [12]. - Compared to major tobacco players, Philip Morris outperformed Altria but was outpaced by Turning Point Brands and British American Tobacco [13]. Valuation Analysis - Philip Morris is trading at a premium with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 22.39X, above the industry average of 15.21X [15]. - Despite the premium valuation, the company's growth profile and strategic transformation make it an attractive option for investors [16].