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AI业务长期增长趋势强劲+商业模式多元化!小摩重申博通(AVGO.US)为首选半导体股
智通财经网· 2025-09-18 08:30
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley identifies Broadcom (AVGO.US) as a top investment choice in the semiconductor sector due to its diversified business model, high profit margins, and strong long-term growth trends in AI/data centers and infrastructure. The firm maintains an "overweight" rating with a target price of $400 by December 2026, indicating a potential upside of approximately 16% from the recent closing price of $346.17 [1] Group 1 - Strong AI demand continues, with Broadcom's team making expected progress on potential collaborations, confident that clients will transition to million-unit XPU AI clusters [2] - If CEO Hock Tan increases AI revenue to $120 billion by 2030, related incentives from his recent employment contract will be maximized, with the team having a history of exceeding targets [2] - Broadcom's team is expected to complete the first 2nm/3.5D packaged AI XPU product this year with a potential client, establishing a leadership position in technology, even ahead of independent GPU peers [2] Group 2 - Broadcom is moving to a higher level by not only delivering chips but also providing clients with complete AI rack-level deployments, resulting in increased gross and operating profit despite lower margins due to cost pass-throughs [2] - There are strong growth opportunities in scale-up, scale-out, and scale-across networking, with Ethernet architecture remaining the preferred technology [2] - Orders in non-AI business are on the rise, with signs of recovery in broadband, server storage, and enterprise networking, although revenue recovery is expected to follow a "U-shaped" pattern, potentially accelerating after entering fiscal 2026 [2] Group 3 - The transition of VMware VCF platform is expected to be completed by the end of fiscal 2026, maintaining strong double-digit year-over-year growth in revenue, with infrastructure software growth projected to return to mid-single-digit percentages thereafter [3] - Broadcom plans to focus on reinvesting in business, particularly in large AI growth opportunities, while continuing to return 50% of free cash flow and prioritizing debt repayment [3] - Broadcom is a leader in wireless, data center networking, AI/deep learning ASICs, storage, and infrastructure silicon, with broad positive exposure across these end markets, ensuring its leadership position in a diversified market [3]