Recession fears are on the rise, and many investors are beginning to lose confidence in the market. Weekly surveys from the American Association for Individual Investors show that investors are becoming less optimistic about the future. In mid-January 2026, around 50% of survey participants felt "bullish" about the market. That figure has steadily dropped since then, now with only 35% of investors feeling optimistic. Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the on ...

Market Overview - The markets have become increasingly nervous in 2026, transitioning from a rotation out of tech stocks to a broader sell-off of sectors potentially disrupted by artificial intelligence (AI) [1] Investment Strategies - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 have not yet seen significant pullbacks, but there is a risk of larger declines if investor fear escalates [2] - In a potential bear market, investors may want to consider sectors that could perform well during stock corrections [2] Recommended ETFs - **Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV)**: This ETF serves as an alternative to stocks in a bear market, though it carries interest rate sensitivity and volatility. If interest rates decline, the share price could see significant upside potential [5][6] - **Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC)**: This ETF invests in defensive stocks that typically experience less decline than the S&P 500 during market corrections. For instance, in 2022, while the S&P 500 fell over 18%, this ETF only dropped less than 2%, providing substantial downside protection [7] - **Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND)**: This ETF offers a standard hedge against equity portfolio risk, encompassing a broad range of investment-grade bonds. It has lower interest rate sensitivity compared to the Extended Duration Treasury ETF and is likely to provide protection and risk mitigation during bear markets [8][9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) is more cost-effective and offers broader sector coverage compared to the Invesco Food & Beverage ETF (PBJ), which has a more focused investment strategy in food and beverage stocks but comes with higher fees [1][2]. Cost and Size Comparison - VDC has an expense ratio of 0.09%, significantly lower than PBJ's 0.61% - VDC's one-year return is 11.5%, while PBJ's is 8.04% - VDC offers a dividend yield of 2.1%, compared to PBJ's 1.7% - VDC has a beta of 0.64, indicating lower volatility compared to PBJ's beta of 0.72 - VDC's assets under management (AUM) stand at $9.05 billion, whereas PBJ has $99.12 million [3][4]. Performance and Risk Comparison - Over the past five years, VDC experienced a maximum drawdown of -16.55%, while PBJ had a drawdown of -15.84% - An investment of $1,000 in VDC would have grown to $1,375 over five years, compared to $1,293 for PBJ [5]. Portfolio Composition - PBJ consists of 31 U.S. companies in the food and beverage sector, focusing on capital appreciation through factors like price momentum and quality - Major holdings in PBJ include Corteva Inc, Sysco Corp, and Monster Beverage Corp, with 89% of its portfolio in consumer defensive stocks [6]. - VDC tracks a broader consumer staples sector with 103 holdings, including major companies like Walmart Inc, Costco Wholesale Corp, and Procter & Gamble Co, maintaining a strong focus on consumer defensive stocks [7]. Investment Implications - Consumer staples investing aims for reliability, making the differences in fund design significant - VDC provides broad, low-cost exposure to the staples sector, benefiting from steady demand for household goods - PBJ's targeted approach to food and beverage companies makes it more sensitive to consumer spending trends and valuation changes, but it incurs higher fees [8][9][10].

Economic Impact of Winter Storm Fern - Winter Storm Fern is projected to cause a temporary decline in U.S. economic growth, with Bank of America estimating a 0.5–1.5 percentage point drag on Q1 2026 GDP, similar to the impact of Winter Storm Viola in 2021 [1] - The storm's disruption is seen as a delay in economic activity rather than a permanent demand destruction, which is crucial for investors to understand [1] Consumer Spending and Resilience - Bank of America's card data indicates that consumer spending rose by 3.3% year over year in mid-January, showing strength in groceries and lodging, suggesting that the storm interrupted ongoing activity rather than revealing underlying demand weakness [3] - Consumer Staples ETFs, such as the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLP), are expected to perform well during uncertain periods due to their focus on essential goods [3][4] Travel and Cyclical Sectors - The travel and cyclical sectors are facing immediate challenges, with over 13,000 flights canceled and 70% of the U.S. population under winter weather alerts, impacting ETFs related to travel and discretionary spending [5] - Historical data shows that similar disruptions in 2021 were followed by significant rebounds in these sectors as mobility recovered [5][6] Potential for Q2 Growth - The first quarter's economic data is expected to be noisy due to seasonal effects, and Winter Storm Fern may exaggerate Q1 weakness while masking potential upside risks for Q2 growth [8] - Bank of America suggests that there is as much potential for Q2 GDP growth as there is downside for Q1, indicating a timing reshuffle rather than a structural slowdown [8] ETF Investment Considerations - Investors in ETFs should be cautious not to confuse weather-driven volatility with a structural slowdown, as growth may rebound in the spring, benefiting cyclical and mobility-linked ETFs [9] - Consumer Discretionary Sector ETFs, such as iShares US Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSE:IYC), are positioned to bounce back strongly if consumer pullback is temporary, driven by pent-up demand [7]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 has shown significant growth, with an increase of over 15% in 2025, following gains of over 20% in both 2024 and 2023, compared to its historical average annual return of 9% to 10% [1][2] Group 1: ETF Performance and Characteristics - The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) is the largest ETF globally, surpassing $2 trillion in net assets, and includes thousands of companies not in the S&P 500, representing about 16% of the total U.S. stock market [5][6] - The Total Stock Market ETF is expected to perform similarly to the S&P 500 over the long term but may be more suitable for investors wanting full market participation [6][7] - The Vanguard Value ETF focuses on value stocks, which tend to perform better during market sell-offs, with major holdings in companies like JPMorgan Chase and Berkshire Hathaway, and offers a yield of 2.1% with a P/E ratio of 21.2 [9][10] - The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF yields 2.2% and includes major companies like Walmart and Coca-Cola, which are expected to perform well during economic downturns due to their strong supply chains [12][13] Group 2: Market Trends and Investor Behavior - The S&P 500's rapid rise is attributed to strong earnings growth from key companies, including Nvidia, which, along with 19 others, constitutes about half of the index [2] - The consumer staples sector has underperformed in 2025, facing challenges from inflation and reduced consumer spending, but is expected to hold up during market sell-offs [11][13] - Investors are encouraged to use ETFs as part of a diversified portfolio, allowing for exposure to different sectors while managing risk [14]

Group 1: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Consumers are increasingly concerned about rising costs but continue to purchase necessities, favoring low-price retailers like Walmart over more upscale options like Target [1] - The current economic environment suggests a conservative investment approach, particularly in essential goods [1] Group 2: Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF Overview - Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF invests in companies within the consumer staples sector, with Walmart as its top holding, followed by Costco, Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, and PepsiCo [3] - The ETF tracks the MSCI US Investable Market Consumer Staples 25/50 Index, ensuring diversification by limiting individual stock holdings to a maximum of 25% and no more than 50% from stocks worth 5% of total assets [6] Group 3: Performance and Investment Strategy - Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF has a history of outperforming during challenging market conditions, with a low expense ratio of 0.09%, making it a cost-effective option for investors seeking stability [7] - Investing in consumer staples is attractive due to the essential nature of the products, which consumers continue to buy regardless of economic downturns [9] - The ETF provides a diversified approach to investing in consumer staples, reducing the need for investors to cherry-pick individual stocks [11]

Core Insights - The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) and Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples ETF (FSTA) provide similar exposure to the U.S. consumer staples sector, with VDC having a larger assets under management (AUM) [2][8] - Both ETFs have nearly identical expense ratios and dividend yields, with FSTA being slightly cheaper at 0.08% compared to VDC's 0.09% [5][8] - Performance metrics show that both ETFs have similar risk profiles and returns, with minor differences in their top holdings [6][9] Cost & Size Comparison - FSTA has an expense ratio of 0.08% while VDC has 0.09% - As of November 28, 2025, FSTA's 1-year return is -3.7% and VDC's is -3.4% - FSTA offers a dividend yield of 2.3% compared to VDC's 2.2% - AUM for FSTA is $1.3 billion and for VDC is $8.3 billion [4][5] Performance & Risk Metrics - The maximum drawdown over 5 years for FSTA is -16.56% and for VDC is -16.54% - Growth of $1,000 over 5 years results in $1,254 for FSTA and $1,255 for VDC [6] Holdings & Sector Allocation - VDC employs a full replication strategy with 103 holdings, focusing on large-cap consumer defensive stocks like Walmart, Costco, and Procter & Gamble [7] - Sector allocation for VDC is 98% consumer defensive and 1% consumer cyclical - FSTA closely mirrors VDC's sector weightings and top holdings, with 104 stocks in its portfolio [9]

Core Insights - The consumer staples sector has remained relatively flat year to date, contrasting with a 15%-plus return for the S&P 500, making it appealing for value investors seeking passive income [1] - The sector includes a diverse range of companies such as household and personal products, retailers, grocery stores, food distributors, non-alcoholic beverages, tobacco, spirits, and consumer packaged goods [3] - Consumer staples tend to be resilient during economic downturns, as demand for essential products remains stable, although consumers may shift to generic brands to save costs [4] Sector Performance - Many leading companies in the consumer staples sector are facing low organic growth, declining sales volumes, and resistance to price increases due to consumers' focus on value amid rising living costs [5] - The sector has underperformed growth stocks in recent years, but low-cost sector ETFs provide an accessible investment avenue for those looking to capitalize on a potential recovery in consumer spending [8] Investment Opportunities - Consumer staples ETFs, such as the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund and the Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF, offer a diversified investment strategy, allowing investors to benefit from a recovery in consumer spending while generating passive income [6] - The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund, managed by State Street Global Advisors, has $16.1 billion in net assets, making it significantly larger than Vanguard's ETF and BlackRock's iShares U.S. Consumer Staples ETF, which has $1.3 billion [7]

Core Insights - The Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF provides exposure to both income and growth sectors, with significant holdings in artificial intelligence companies like Broadcom and Microsoft, and a notable position in Apple [1][4] - The ETF is designed to track the S&P 500 U.S. Dividend Growers Index, consisting of 337 holdings across various sectors, with a strong emphasis on information technology and financials [3][4] - The ETF has a low expense ratio of 0.05% and offers a dividend yield of 1.6%, making it an attractive option for investors seeking passive income [7][4] Sector Exposure - The ETF has a 15.1% weighting in healthcare stocks, providing diversification that can mitigate risks associated with downturns in specific industries [2] - Information technology and financials dominate the ETF's holdings, representing 26.1% and 22.6% of the portfolio, respectively [3] Market Context - The S&P 500 has experienced significant gains, with a 12.3% increase year-to-date, following a 20% rise in both 2023 and 2024, leading some investors to seek more stable income-generating investments [6][4] - The ETF's focus on dividend growth stocks is particularly appealing in the current market environment, where investors are cautious about potential sell-offs [4][5]

Core Insights - The artificial intelligence sector is showing signs of a potential significant correction, with AI stocks, particularly the "Magnificent Seven," making lower highs since December 2024, diverging from broader market performance, a pattern that historically precedes major corrections [1][20]. Hedging Strategies - The I/O Fund has been 100% hedged since December 27, 2024, as investors seek alternative opportunities amid high AI unicorn valuations of $2.7 trillion despite limited revenue and profits [2][20]. - Volatility ETFs, such as the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY), offer leveraged exposure to short-term VIX futures, making them effective during market stress, with current VIX hedging premiums at 2.2% for a one-year put option on the S&P 500 [3]. - Inverse ETFs like the ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ) provide direct negative correlation to major indices, with SQQQ surging 30% during recent Nasdaq declines [5][6]. Defensive Instruments - Long-duration Treasury bonds, particularly the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), benefit from flight-to-quality dynamics during equity corrections, averaging 2.1% gains during significant VIX spikes [7]. - Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) offer protection against inflation and downside protection during market stress [8]. Defensive Sector ETFs - Consumer staples and utilities sectors provide stability during market corrections, with the Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) offering exposure to recession-resistant companies [9][10]. Sectors Positioned for Growth - The energy sector is expected to benefit from AI's power demands, with companies like Constellation Energy anticipating 10% annual earnings growth through 2028 driven by AI demand [11]. - The demand for copper is expected to rise significantly due to infrastructure development for AI, with the iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF (ICOP) providing exposure to copper mining operations [12][13]. - Small-cap value stocks are showing historic outperformance versus tech stocks, with the Russell 2000 Value index performing strongly as investors rotate from expensive tech stocks [14][15]. Geographic Diversification - Emerging market equities provide low correlation to US tech stocks, offering diversification benefits during AI corrections, with ETFs like the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) gaining popularity [16][17]. Current Market Dynamics - Hedge fund positioning indicates increasing caution toward US stocks, with major funds adjusting their portfolios despite the AI boom [20]. - Market technicals suggest the S&P 500 must hold above 5860–5885 to avoid confirming a drop into the 5600 region, with a break below these levels potentially triggering a larger correction [21].