Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE)** market, particularly imports to **China**. - The data is sourced from **China Customs**, providing insights into monthly WFE imports and trends. Key Statistics - **November 2025 WFE imports** to China totaled **USD 2.44 billion**, reflecting a **MoM decrease of 24%** and a **YoY decrease of 9%**. However, the **YTD YoY growth** stands at **6%** [1][25][36]. - The **monthly average** for imports in 2025 is **USD 3.22 billion** [2][25]. - Major equipment categories showed varied performance: - **Lithography**: November imports at **USD 707 million**, MoM -32%, YoY -15% [2][25]. - **Deposition**: November imports MoM -32%, YoY +8% [2][25]. - **Dry Etch**: November imports MoM -46%, YoY -30% [2][25]. - **Process Control**: November imports MoM +24%, YoY -2% [2][25]. Regional Insights - The **US, Malaysia, and Singapore** combined accounted for **37%** of imports, up from **33%** the previous year, indicating a shift in sourcing from **Japan** and **Netherlands** [2][25]. - **Shanghai and Guangdong** represent **58%** of total imports YTD [2]. Company-Specific Insights - **ASML**: Q4 sales in China are estimated at **EUR 2.44 billion**, up **5% QoQ** and **27% YoY**, indicating stronger-than-expected demand [3][65][67]. - **LRCX**: December revenues are projected to decrease by **32% QoQ**, with China exposure around **30%** of total revenues [4][83]. - **AMAT**: January revenues are expected to decrease by **10% QoQ**, with China exposure at **26%** [5]. - **TEL**: Projected to see a **25% YoY** decline in China revenue [9]. - **Kokusai**: Expected to see a **13% YoY** decline in revenue [9]. - **Screen**: Anticipated to decline **67% YoY** and **39% QoQ** [10]. - **Advantest**: Expected to decline **23% YoY** and **24% QoQ** [11]. Investment Implications - **NAURA**: Rated as **Outperform** with a target of **CNY 600.00**, benefiting from domestic WFE substitution [13]. - **AMEC**: Rated as **Outperform** with a target of **CNY 380.00**, recognized for its technology and market position [14]. - **Piotech**: Rated as **Outperform** with a target of **CNY 375.00**, noted for product innovation [15]. - **Tokyo Electron**: Rated as **Outperform** with a target of **¥39,400**, expected to gain market share [16]. - **Screen**: Rated as **Market-Perform** with a target of **¥13,600**, facing competitive pressures [17]. - **Advantest**: Rated as **Market-Perform** with a target of **¥20,400**, benefiting from rising testing intensity [17]. - **AMAT**: Rated as **Outperform** with a target of **$260.00**, supported by WFE growth drivers [18]. - **LRCX**: Rated as **Outperform** with a target of **$175.00**, with a potential NAND upgrade cycle [19]. - **ASML**: Rated as **Market-Perform** with a target of **EUR 800.00**, reflecting cautious growth expectations [20]. Conclusion - The WFE market in China is experiencing fluctuations, with significant implications for major players in the semiconductor equipment industry. The data indicates a complex landscape influenced by regional shifts, demand normalization, and competitive dynamics.