Market Trends & Guidance - Novo Nordisk's stock experiences a significant drop, potentially the worst since 1987, due to lowered full-year guidance, anticipating weaker growth in the second half for GLP-1 drugs like Wegovy [1] - Analysts are beginning to question the previously inflated near-term and long-term expectations for the obesity market [2] - Market size predictions for obesity drugs have rapidly increased from $50 billion to over $150 billion, which may be unsustainable in the short term [3] Competitive Landscape & Pricing - Factors contributing to the revised outlook include compounding pharmacies and cheaper alternative ways to access these drugs [4] - Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have reduced prices over time, despite being only in the second year of full availability for both drugs [4] Product Usage & Consumer Behavior - The nature of GLP-1 drugs is being re-evaluated as more of a consumer product with patients cycling on and off, rather than a chronic therapeutic [5][6] - Modeling the market for these drugs is more complex if they are primarily used as consumer products [6] Investment Strategy & Management - Despite the stock decline, the long-term outlook for Novo Nordisk is considered potentially positive, but today is not the day to buy the dip [6][7] - Waiting to assess Eli Lilly's performance next week is advised before making investment decisions [7] - The new management team should have been more proactive in addressing risks when the company was performing well [8]