Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated freight revenue increased by 7.8% or approximately $19.5 million to $270.6 million [6] - Consolidated adjusted operating income decreased by 39.4% to $10.9 million due to margin compression in several segments [7] - Net indebtedness increased by $76.9 million to $296.6 million, resulting in an adjusted leverage ratio of approximately 2.3 times and a debt-to-capital ratio of 42.3% [8] - Average age of tractors increased to 24 months from 20 months year-over-year [9] - Adjusted return on average invested capital was 5.6%, down from 8.1% in the prior year [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The expedited segment reported an adjusted operating ratio of 97.2%, which did not meet expectations due to external challenges including a U.S. government shutdown [9] - Dedicated segment achieved a 92.2 adjusted operating ratio, the best for any quarter during the year, with a fleet growth of 90 average tractors or approximately 6.3% [10] - Managed freight saw significant revenue improvement due to the Star Logistics Solutions acquisition, but margins were compressed due to rising costs [11] - Warehousing segment experienced a 4.6% increase in freight revenue, but adjusted operating income declined due to startup costs and operational inefficiencies [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The freight market is evolving towards equilibrium, with spot rates rising meaningfully and increased bid activity from shippers [3] - Bids in January were up 33% compared to the fourth quarter, indicating heightened interest from shippers [24] - Concerns about capacity and cargo theft have increased among shippers, influencing their bidding strategies [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to reduce balance sheet leverage and improve return on capital through fleet optimization and targeted rate increases [5] - Focus will be on growing high-service niches within the dedicated segment while reducing exposure to commoditized freight [10] - The acquisition of Star Logistics Solutions is expected to be accretive to earnings in the first half of 2026, diversifying the business mix [6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management is optimistic about improving freight fundamentals and expects to capture operating leverage in 2026 [13] - The first quarter of 2026 may be impacted by seasonality and extreme weather, but improvements are anticipated later in the year [13] - Management believes that the trucking industry is beginning to recover, with increased bids and new business at higher rates [77] Other Important Information - The company has deferred some trades and moved a group of assets to held-for-sale status to improve operations and balance sheet [4] - The company plans to integrate the Star acquisition and focus on capital allocation efficiency in 2026 [35] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for price increases in the expedited segment? - Management indicated that the average price increase is around 3.5% for the first three weeks of January, with positive conversations with customers [16][17] Question: How is the warehousing segment performing? - Management expects improvements in the warehousing segment, with Q1 anticipated to be better than Q4 due to the onboarding of new customers [31] Question: What is the outlook for managed freight revenue? - Managed freight revenue is expected to be flat to up sequentially, with incremental growth anticipated in the third and fourth quarters [62] Question: How will the company respond to potential demand recovery in 2026? - The company plans to reclaim profits lost over the past four years and focus on rate increases rather than adding excessive capacity [96] Question: What percentage of the customer book renews in each quarter? - Approximately 40% of customers renew in the second quarter, with 60% expected to take multiple rate increases [99][100]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of "Buy" for Mainfreight with a price target of NZ$82.00 based on current market conditions [10][28]. Core Insights - Mainfreight's FY25 results slightly exceeded UBS estimates and market consensus, primarily driven by performance in Australia, although the outlook is mixed due to tariff impacts [2][7]. - The company reported revenue of $5.24 billion, an 11% year-over-year increase, and underlying EBITDAR of $792 million, a 6% increase year-over-year [3][4]. - Underlying NPAT decreased by 1% year-over-year to $274 million, which was still above UBS estimates and market consensus [3][4]. Financial Performance - Key financial metrics include: - Revenue: $5.24 billion (+11% YoY) vs. UBS estimate of $5.10 billion - Underlying EBITDAR: $792 million (+6% YoY) vs. UBS estimate of $737 million - Underlying NPAT: $274 million (-1% YoY) vs. UBS estimate of $267 million [3][4]. - The company experienced mixed performance across regions, with notable declines in the US and Asia, while Australia showed strong growth [4][7]. Valuation - The valuation is based on a 12-month price target of NZ$82, derived from an average of P/E (26x) and DCF valuations [5][10]. - The current market cap is NZ$6.70 billion (approximately US$4.00 billion) with a free cash flow of $163 million [10][3]. Guidance and Outlook - No specific guidance was provided, but trading in April and May was described as "disappointing" due to short trading weeks and initial US tariff disruptions [6][7]. - The outlook for US operations indicates potential improvement in A&O and Warehousing earnings in FY26, despite current challenges [7][6]. Company Overview - Mainfreight, established in 1978, has evolved into a global freight forwarder with operations in 20 countries and a workforce of over 6,000 employees [13]. - Approximately 75% of its revenue is generated outside New Zealand, with a comprehensive service offering that includes domestic distribution, warehousing, and international freight services [13].