Market Reaction - Crypto-related U.S. equities experienced a decline in pre-market trading following President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve chair, leading to a significant selloff in the crypto market over the weekend [1] - Major publicly traded bitcoin holders, such as MicroStrategy (MSTR), saw a drop of more than 6%, while Galaxy Digital (GLXY) fell over 7% [2] Volatility and Market Indicators - The Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX) increased by 10% on the day, indicating rising market volatility [3] - The Volmex implied volatility index surged from 40 to 50 over the past week, reflecting heightened market uncertainty and expectations of larger price movements [3] Asset Performance - Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $77,000 after a low of $74,500, showing a slight increase of around 1% on the day [4] - Precious metals faced pressure, with gold and silver both declining by 4%, trading at $4,700 and $82 per ounce, respectively [4] - West Texas Intermediate oil futures fell by 5% to $62 a barrel [4] Currency Dynamics - The DXY index, which measures the dollar's strength against major currencies, slightly retreated to 97, indicating an inverse relationship with bitcoin as the dollar eases [5]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened on January 12, 2026, with major indexes experiencing early declines due to a criminal probe involving Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and a new policy proposal from President Donald Trump [1][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P 500 (SPX) had previously reached record highs following positive unemployment data [1] Major Index Performance - The S&P 500 opened at 6,944.12 points, down 0.32% from the previous close, while the DJIA opened at 49,499.67 points, down 0.01% [2] - The Nasdaq Composite opened lower at 23,576.88 points, down 0.40% [2] - Early trading saw the Dow decline approximately 400 points, a 0.3% drop, with the S&P 500 down 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite slipping less than 0.1% [2] Key Market Catalysts - The U.S. Department of Justice has initiated a criminal probe into Jerome Powell, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [3] - President Trump's proposal for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10% negatively impacted financial stocks, with Synchrony Financial and Capital One Financial dropping approximately 8% and 6% respectively [4] Safe-Haven Assets - Gold futures surged to $4,605 an ounce, up 2.4%, as investors sought refuge amid market turbulence and geopolitical risks [5] - Crude oil prices edged lower, with West Texas Intermediate futures down 0.5% to $58.85 a barrel [5] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) on January 13 and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on January 14 [7][8] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains a focus, with analysts anticipating a pause in rate cuts at the upcoming FOMC meeting [8] Earnings Releases - Microsoft is scheduled to release its fiscal year 2026 second-quarter financial results on January 28, 2026 [9] - Other companies reporting earnings on January 12, 2026, include WaFd Inc, Platinum Group Metals, Lifecore Biomedical, and Loop Industries [9] Individual Stock Movements - Intel Corporation shares surged by 10.8% following a positive social media post from President Trump [10] - General Motors Company experienced a 0.3% dip after announcing $7.1 billion in special charges for restructuring [11] - Walmart shares advanced 2% due to its inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index starting January 20 [10]

Market Performance - US stocks ended the week higher, with tech stocks leading the gains, resulting in record closes for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 [1] - The Dow led major indexes with a gain of over 2% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite rose nearly 2% and the S&P 500 increased by approximately 1.6% [1] Oil Market - Oil prices increased throughout the week, influenced by the US military's capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and the Trump administration's seizure of Venezuela's oil industry [2] - Brent crude oil futures rose more than 3.7% for the week, while West Texas Intermediate futures gained roughly 2.6% [2] Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data on consumer prices, producer prices, and retail sales will be closely monitored, as traders anticipate the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rates [3] - Current market expectations indicate a 95% probability that the Fed will maintain unchanged rates at the upcoming meeting [3] Earnings Reports - The earnings season is set to begin, with major banks such as JPMorgan Chase and BNY Mellon reporting results on Tuesday, followed by Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup on Wednesday [3] - Other significant companies reporting include Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Taiwan Semiconductor later in the week [4] Labor Market Insights - The December jobs report indicated that 2025 was the worst year for US job growth outside of a recession since 2003, with only 584,000 new jobs added [5] - This marked a significant decline from over 2 million jobs added in 2024, and it was the first time job gains fell below 1 million annually, excluding the years 2008, 2009, and 2020 [5] - Despite concerns, the market's reaction suggested that labor market conditions are cooling but not collapsing, according to economic research insights [6]

Market Overview - US stock futures are trending lower as investors react to a deal for Venezuela to send oil to the US and await new jobs data [1][3] - Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 0.3%, S&P 500 futures decreased by 0.1%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures remained flat after closing above 49,000 for the first time [2] Oil Market Impact - President Trump announced that Venezuela will send up to 50 million barrels of crude oil to the US, valued at $2.8 billion, which has raised concerns among investors [3] - Following this announcement, crude oil prices fell, with West Texas Intermediate futures trading below $57 per barrel and Brent crude dropping toward $60 [4] Economic Data Focus - Attention is shifting to upcoming economic releases, particularly the ISM reading on US services activity and ADP's December update on private sector employment, which is expected to show modest growth [5][6] - The December jobs report, set to be released on Friday, is viewed as a critical indicator of whether the economy is cooling enough to prompt changes in Federal Reserve policy [7] Technology Sector Insights - The CES 2026 show is generating discussions around the technology sector, particularly regarding Nvidia, with analysts divided on its future potential [8] - Mobileye's stock rose by 11% after announcing the acquisition of humanoid robotics startup Mantee Robotics for $900 million [10] China Stock Market Projections - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 20% increase in Chinese stock benchmarks for 2026, driven by earnings growth supported by AI and policy measures [11] - The MSCI China Index is projected to reach 100 by the end of 2026, while the CSI 300 Index is expected to rise to 5,200, reflecting confidence in ongoing earnings expansion and new growth drivers [12]

Group 1 - Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has been captured, leading to a positive market reaction for energy firms [1][2] - Shares of oil producers, refiners, and oilfield-services companies experienced significant increases, with Chevron rising 5%, ConocoPhillips up 5%, and Exxon Mobil increasing by 2% [4] - Oilfield-services firms such as Halliburton, SLB, and Baker Hughes saw their shares jump by 8%, 8%, and 5% respectively [4] Group 2 - Oil refiners Valero Energy, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 also saw substantial gains, with shares up 10%, 6%, and 6% respectively [5] - West Texas Intermediate futures rose by 1.2% to $58 per barrel following the news [5] - Venezuela holds the world's largest known oil reserves, estimated at 300 billion barrels, which is nearly 20% of global supply, but currently only accounts for about 1% of global production [3][5]

Market Reaction - Stock futures rose, with Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures increasing by 0.8%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively [1] - Shares of several energy companies surged, particularly Chevron, which rose by 6.5% [3] Energy Sector Impact - U.S. military's capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, who faces drug trafficking charges, has led to increased optimism in the energy sector [2] - West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures increased by 0.5% to $57.65 per barrel [3] - Other oil producers and service firms saw significant gains, including Halliburton (up 10%), SLB (up 9%), ConocoPhillips (up 8%), Valero Energy (up 8%), Baker Hughes (up 7%), and Marathon Petroleum (up 7%) [3] Precious Metals and Other Assets - Prices of precious metals rose sharply, with gold futures up more than 2% to $4,430 per ounce and silver futures up more than 5% to $74.70 per ounce [6] - Bitcoin traded at nearly $93,000, reflecting a rise from weekend lows [6] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.2% to 98.63 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have risen from a four-and-a-half-year low due to the US signaling tougher measures against Russia and a blockade of Venezuelan oil exports, with West Texas Intermediate futures climbing nearly 2.7% to almost $57 a barrel [1] Group 1: US Actions and Market Reactions - The US is considering targeting Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers and traders facilitating oil exports if a peace agreement with Ukraine is rejected by Vladimir Putin [1] - President Trump announced a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers related to Venezuela, increasing pressure on the country amid a military buildup in the region [4] - The market's reaction to the US government's report on rising domestic fuel inventories was muted, indicating that traders are not overly concerned about supply risks due to the expected surplus [5] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Venezuela accounts for less than 1% of global crude supplies, suggesting that the impact of the blockade on oil prices may be limited [2] - The oil market is projected to experience a yearly loss, with supply expected to outpace demand this year and next, driven by OPEC+ increasing output and other producers also raising production levels [4] - The International Energy Agency predicts that the surplus in the oil market will be the largest since the pandemic, indicating emerging signs of market weakness [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trading Strategies - Traders are currently 100% short in both Brent and WTI, reflecting a cautious sentiment in the market [6] - Trend-following commodity advisers require further validation of price movements before adjusting their stop-loss limit orders, indicating a wait-and-see approach among traders [6]

Market Overview - US stock futures showed a slight increase, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures up 0.1%, S&P 500 futures up 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures also up 0.2% as investors analyze the implications of recent jobs data on Federal Reserve policy and the US economy [1] - Oil prices surged over 2% following President Trump's order for a blockade of sanctioned tankers off Venezuela, with West Texas Intermediate futures trading above $56 per barrel and Brent futures exceeding $60 [2][11] Employment Data Insights - Wall Street is seeking clarity from the November jobs report, which revealed a higher-than-expected number of jobs added alongside the highest unemployment rate since 2021 [3] - Analysts caution that the jobs data may have a significant margin of error due to a prolonged government shutdown affecting data collection, leaving the odds of a January rate cut at 25% [4] Federal Reserve Commentary - Key Federal Reserve officials, including New York Fed's John Williams and Fed governor Chris Waller, are expected to provide insights on future monetary policy [5] - The market is anticipating the upcoming consumer inflation data, which is crucial for the Fed's rate decision next month [6] Technology Sector Focus - Investor interest in tech stocks remains strong, particularly with Micron Technology's quarterly results expected, as concerns about the AI trade continue to influence the sector [7] - Tesla's stock has positively impacted the tech sector, achieving its first record close in about a year due to growing enthusiasm over its robotaxi ambitions [8] Housing Market Update - Homebuilder Lennar's stock fell over 3% after reporting a decline in fourth-quarter profit, reflecting ongoing challenges in the housing market due to affordability issues [8]

Core Viewpoint - The investigation into the oil tanker Boracay, suspected of being part of Russia's "shadow fleet," coincides with a decline in oil prices and energy stocks as the U.S. administration pushes for a peace deal in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][3]. Oil Prices and Market Reaction - International benchmark Brent crude futures fell 2% to $62.09 per barrel, marking a decline of over 16% year-to-date [2]. - U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 2.4% to $57.61, following a previous session close down by 0.5% [2]. - Europe's Stoxx Oil and Gas index led losses, down more than 2.7%, with major companies like Shell and BP trading around 1.6% lower, and Siemens Energy falling over 8% [3]. Peace Deal Proposal - The U.S. has proposed a peace plan that includes Ukraine ceding territories such as Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, and committing to not join NATO, while receiving "reliable" security guarantees [4]. - The proposal suggests limiting the size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to 600,000 personnel [4]. - Analysts express skepticism regarding Ukraine's acceptance of a plan perceived as favorable to Russia [5].