Energy Sector - Natural gas futures fell 29% in February, settling below $2.86 per MMBtu as the shoulder season approaches in spring [1] - April WTI and May Brent crude oil futures rose by 3.52% and 6.24%, respectively, with Brent outperforming WTI [6] - The outbreak of war in the Middle East on February 28 caused crude oil and oil product prices to rise significantly in early March [7] Precious Metals - Platinum and palladium futures rose 11.87% and 5.70% in January, with three of the four precious metals posting double-digit gains in February [2] - Gold futures gained 10.60% in February after a low of $4,423.20 per ounce on February 2, while silver futures rose 17.88% [3][4] - The continued rise in precious metals prices reflects the declining value of the U.S. dollar and fiat currencies [2] Agricultural Commodities - Grains prices rallied in February due to uncertainty over weather, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and rising demand [8] - CBOT soybean futures gained 8.70%, soft red winter wheat rose 8.33%, and corn futures increased by 2.93% [9] - Soft commodities experienced significant declines, with ICE cocoa futures dropping 31.66% and frozen concentrated orange juice futures falling 13.76% [10] Livestock and Lumber - Cattle futures declined in February, with live and feeder cattle futures falling 1.93% and 1.97%, respectively [11] - Lumber futures decreased by 6.89% amid the construction offseason, although lower interest rates in 2026 could support future price increases [11] Bonds and Cryptocurrencies - Bonds rose in February due to expectations of lower short-term interest rates, while the dollar index increased by 0.73% [12][13] - Cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, experienced significant declines, with Bitcoin falling 21.77% and Ethereum dropping 28.17% [15] Market Outlook - The economic and geopolitical landscapes remain turbulent, with expectations of volatility in commodities as they move into March [16] - Metals such as gold, silver, and copper are in long-term bullish trends, supported by the decline in fiat currencies' purchasing power [17] - The situation in the Middle East is a critical factor for crude oil and oil product prices in the near term [16]

Core Insights - The grain and oilseed sector experienced widespread price declines in Q3 2025, with soybean meal futures falling by 2.06% and soybean oil by 6.93% [1]. - Despite the bearish trend in soybean prices, there is potential for future price increases due to rising global demand and production cost pressures [3][4]. Soybean Market - Soybean meal futures settled at $265.70 per ton, while soybean oil settled at 48.87 cents per pound as of September 30, 2025 [1]. - Over the first nine months of 2025, soybean meal prices declined by 13.66%, whereas soybean oil prices increased by 22.85% [1]. - Nearby soybean futures settled at $10.0175 per bushel on September 30, 2025, with a slight increase to $10.2750 in mid-October [2]. Corn Market - Nearby CBOT corn futures declined by 1.19% in Q3 2025 and were down 9.38% over the first nine months of 2025 [6]. - Corn futures settled at $4.1550 per bushel on September 30, 2025, with a marginal increase to $4.2050 in mid-October [7]. Wheat Market - Nearby soft red winter wheat futures fell by 3.92% in Q3 2025 and were down 7.89% over the first nine months of 2025 [8]. - KCBT hard red winter wheat futures declined by 1.63% in Q3 2025, settling at $4.9775 per bushel on September 30, 2025 [10]. - Nearby MGE spring wheat futures decreased by 6.67% in Q3 2025, settling at $5.6275 per bushel [11]. Other Grains - Oat futures saw a significant decline of 20.49% in Q3 2025, settling at $3.0750 per bushel [12]. - Rough rice futures dropped by 13.82% in Q3 2025, settling at $11.165 per cwt [13]. Market Outlook - The grain and oilseed prices are expected to remain bearish in Q4 2025 due to sufficient crop yields meeting global demand [14]. - The lack of USDA data due to a government shutdown may hinder market transparency, but robust supplies suggest limited downside potential for prices [16]. - The cyclical nature of agricultural commodities indicates that current low prices may discourage production, potentially leading to higher prices in the future [16].