LOGIN SUBSCRIBE | FastCo Works advertisement BYÂ Lance Lambert Listen to this ArticleMore info 0:00 / 0:00 While Zillow's national home price forecast is no longer negative—it isn't exactly bullish either. Among the 300 largest U.S. metro area housing markets, Zillow expects the biggest home price increase between September 2025 and September 2026 to occur in these 15 metros: Â Â Premium Tech Design News Leadership Work Life Games Podcasts Video INNOVATION FESTIVAL Want more housing market stories from Lanc ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of renewed S&P 500 volatility due to tariff talks and a government shutdown, leading investors to rely on secondary economic indicators for insights into the U.S. economy [1] NFIB Small Business Survey - The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.0 points to 98.8 in September, marking the first decline in three months and coming in below the forecast of 100.6 [2] - Uncertainty among small business owners surged, reaching the fourth-highest level in over 51 years, despite the index remaining above its historical average for five consecutive months [2][3] - Labor quality and taxes are the top concerns for small business owners, with significant issues arising from supply chain disruptions and inflation [3] - The net percentage of owners reporting higher profits increased to its highest level in nearly four years, highlighting the sector's influence on the overall economy [3] Regional Manufacturing: Philadelphia & New York - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index dropped 36 points to -12.8, the lowest since April and below the forecast of 8.6, indicating a sharp slowdown in regional activity [4] - Conversely, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for New York increased by 19.4 points to 10.7, exceeding the forecast of -1.8, suggesting a rebound in manufacturing activity [4] - Both regions reported elevated price pressures and stronger future optimism, with firms expressing greater confidence in the next six months [4][5] NAHB Housing Market Index - Builder confidence improved, with the NAHB Housing Market Index rising five points to 37, the highest since April and above the expected reading of 33 [6] - All three components of the index—current sales, expected sales, and prospective buyer traffic—experienced their largest monthly increases since early 2024 [7] Zillow Home Value Index - U.S. home values rose for the first time in seven months in September, with the Zillow Home Value Index increasing to $363,932, a nominal rise of 0.1% from August [8] - However, inflation-adjusted home values fell for the seventeenth consecutive month, declining 0.3% from August and down 3.8% year-over-year, indicating a challenging housing market [9] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 posted a 1.7% increase last week, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) also rising by 1.7% [10] - The 10-year note yield fell below 4.00% for the first time in over a year, while the 2-year note reached its lowest level since September 2022 [11] Economic Data in the Week Ahead - The ongoing government shutdown has led to a sparse economic calendar, making the available reports more significant [12] - Upcoming releases include Existing Home Sales figures, the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, which will provide insights into consumer sentiment and economic growth [12]