一家成立以来年年亏损的房地产科技公司Opendoor，在2025年上演了资本狂欢。 短短三个月内，其股价从不足1美元飙升至8.11美元，涨幅近16倍，市值冲上60亿美元，一度成为美股 成交量最高的股票之一。 这场狂欢的导演，是一群自称"Open Army"的散户投资者。他们将Opendoor捧为新的"Meme股"，甚至 成功"逼宫"管理层——推动CEO于8月离职、迎回两位联合创始人进入董事会，并聘请Shopify首席运营 官Kaz Nejatian担任首席执行官。 然而，无论资本市场如何喧嚣，一个根本性问题依然存在：Opendoor的核心业务——iBuying（即时买 房翻新转售），似乎根本无法规模化。 "iBuyer"模式：一个难以规模化的生意 所谓iBuying，即利用算法快速买入房产，经轻度翻新后迅速卖出。 行业巨头Zillow的惨痛失败便是前车之鉴。2021年，Zillow的房价预测算法出现灾难性失误，导致其 iBuyer业务"Zillow Offers"大量高价拿房，最终只能亏本出售。 即便是在市场较好的年份，Zillow Offers的毛利率也极其微薄，利润被高昂的运营费用完全吞噬。在 2021年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zillow Group has faced significant challenges since the pandemic, including a sharp decline in stock value due to internal missteps and changing macroeconomic conditions, but recent improvements in fundamentals and technical indicators suggest a potential recovery [4][11][18]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Context - Zillow Group's stock price has fluctuated dramatically, ranging from $18 to $212, and is currently down nearly 50% from its 2021 high [5][4]. - The stock has shown recent momentum, increasing nearly 20% in the last three months and approaching its 2025 high of $85.29 [14][18]. - A Golden Cross technical signal has formed, indicating a potential bullish trend, similar to a previous occurrence that led to an 80% appreciation in six months [12][11]. Group 2: Company Challenges and Strategic Missteps - Zillow's iBuying program, Zillow Offers, launched in 2018, faced significant issues, including overpaying for homes and failing to adapt to local market conditions, leading to substantial losses [9][10]. - By Q3 2021, Zillow reported a $422 million loss from the Zillow Offers segment, prompting the shutdown of the program and layoffs [10][11]. Group 3: Recent Developments and Financial Performance - Zillow's Q2 2025 revenue reached $655 million, a 15% year-over-year increase, driven significantly by rental revenue, which grew 36% year-over-year [18][19]. - The company reported earnings per share of 40 cents, missing the analysts' estimate of 44 cents, but this was largely attributed to increased marketing expenses and strategic investments [19][18]. - Following the Q2 report, 10 research firms raised their price targets for Zillow, with a new consensus price estimate of $85.62, indicating a 7% upside from current prices [20][17].