Key Takeaways Geopolitical risks and trade tensions boost gold's safe-haven appeal.Gold prices are up 6.93% over the past five days and 60.88% over the past six months.ETFs like GLD and GDX help investors ride gold's momentum.Gold prices have already climbed 60.88% over the past six months and 93.20% over the past year. The metal has seen its prices gain 6.93% over the past five days, causing it to breach the $5,200 mark. The yellow metal’s powerful 2025 rally, fueled by robust central bank purchases and pe ...

January has already seen a fair share of market volatility, underscoring the year’s turbulent start and potentially setting the tone for what lies ahead in the months to come, while strengthening the case for increased portfolio exposure to gold. President Trump’s recent announcement of tariffs on eight European nations has made matters worse for an already volatile market environment.Since last Monday, the CBOE Volatility Index has surged about 27% and is up roughly 31% since the start of 2026, reflecting ...

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for gold in 2026 is bullish, with forecasts from JPMorgan and Bank of America predicting prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by Q4, driven by a surge of over 75% in the past year due to increased ETF and central bank demand, alongside geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold and mining ETFs are expected to benefit significantly from the anticipated record-breaking performance of gold in 2026 [2]. - Gold mining ETFs are projected to outperform physical gold in 2026, indicating a strong market for these investment vehicles [2]. - Global gold ETFs experienced six consecutive months of inflows last year, primarily from Asia, with JPMorgan predicting around 250 metric tons of inflows into ETFs in 2026 [2]. Group 2: Investment Shifts - Investors are expected to shift from legacy gold ETFs to lower-cost "mini" and "micro" funds following the record high gold prices in late 2025, which surpassed $4,500 per ounce [2]. - The APAC region is anticipated to see sustained inflows as gold ownership increases in markets like India and China, with investors viewing gold as a risk hedge [2]. Group 3: Notable ETFs - SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM) has an expense ratio of 0.1% and $25.3 billion in assets, appealing to cost-conscious investors [2]. - abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL) has a higher expense ratio of 0.17% but focuses on responsible environmental, social, and governance practices, with $6.24 billion in assets [2]. - VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has an expense ratio of 0.51% and $27.8 billion in assets, showing high performance and growth in 2025 [2]. - VanEck Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) targets small and early-stage miners with an expense ratio of 0.51% and $10 billion in assets [2]. - iShares Gold Trust (IAU) is the second-largest physical gold ETF with $71 billion in assets and an expense ratio of 0.25% [2].

Core Insights - Gold prices have surged 28.33% over the past six months and 64.74% year to date, with forecasts indicating further gains in the upcoming year [1][10] - Increased central bank buying, economic uncertainty, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and a weaker dollar are driving the case for greater gold exposure [2][10] Market Dynamics - A weaker U.S. dollar enhances gold demand, making it more affordable for foreign buyers; the U.S. Dollar Index has decreased by 1.06% in the past month and 9.23% year to date [3] - Interest rate cuts by the Fed are expected to weaken the dollar further, supporting gold prices; President Trump's indication of a Fed chair favoring lower rates adds to this optimistic outlook [4] Price Projections - Analysts from JPMorgan and Bank of America predict gold could reach $5,000 per troy ounce by 2026, driven by increased investor interest and geopolitical risks [5] - Morgan Stanley forecasts gold prices at $4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter, citing stronger Chinese demand and rising central bank purchases [6] Investment Strategies - In the current market, a long-term passive investment strategy is recommended to navigate short-term disruptions; a "buy-the-dip" approach is suggested despite potential near-term pullbacks in gold prices [7][10] - Recommended ETFs for gold exposure include SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and others, with GLD being the most liquid option with an asset base of $145.91 billion [11][12] Gold Miners ETFs - Gold miners ETFs provide exposure to the gold mining industry, which can amplify gains and losses; options include VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) [13] - GDX is noted for its liquidity and significant asset base of $25.17 billion, with SGDM and SGDJ being the most cost-effective options for annual fees [14]

Core Insights - Gold has emerged as a top-performing asset class in 2025, hitting over 50 all-time highs and reaching prices above $4,000 per ounce, with a nearly 60% increase since January [1][2] Factors Driving Gold's Rally - Geopolitical instability, particularly conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, has increased gold's risk premium, contributing approximately 12 percentage points to its year-to-date return [4] - Central banks have been purchasing gold at a record pace, with net purchases expected to reach around 900 tons in 2025, marking a significant structural shift in demand [5] - Macroeconomic factors, including consecutive rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and a weaker dollar, have favored gold as a non-yielding asset, while fears of an economic recession have heightened its appeal as a hedge [6] - A resurgence in Western investment demand for gold, particularly through ETFs, has created a self-reinforcing cycle of price momentum, significantly contributing to the rally [7] Outlook for Gold - The outlook for gold in 2026 remains bullish, with analysts projecting prices between $4,500 and $5,300 per ounce, driven by sustained demand and central bank buying [8][9] Gold ETFs to Watch - SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has approximately $141.3 billion in AUM and has surged 60.7% year to date, with a trading volume of 9.06 million shares [12] - iShares Gold Trust (IAU) has $65.7 billion in net assets and has increased 60.9% year to date, with a trading volume of 8.61 million shares [13] - abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL) has $7.1 billion in AUM and has risen 61% year to date, with a trading volume of 6.25 million shares [14]

Core Insights - Gold prices have fluctuated, recently trading below $4,000 per ounce due to a strong dollar and reduced chances of a U.S. interest rate cut, impacting demand for bullion [1] - In October, gold futures reached $4,000 per ounce for the first time, with year-to-date returns around 50%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index, which is up about 15% [2] - Gold's performance in 2025 follows a strong 2024, where it recorded a 26% annual increase, the best since 2010 [3] Tax Implications - Investment profits from physical gold and gold-tracking funds are taxed differently than traditional assets, potentially leading to higher tax bills for investors in top brackets [3][4] - Long-term capital gains on collectibles, including physical gold, are taxed at a top rate of 28%, which is higher than the 20% rate for long-term capital gains on stocks [5][6] - Gold futures contracts have a different tax structure, with a top federal tax rate of 26.8%, calculated as 60% of profits taxed at 20% and 40% at 37% [7][12] Investment Considerations - Investors should be aware that not all gold ETFs are taxed the same, and those holding physical gold or collectibles face higher tax rates [6][8] - Holding gold in a taxable brokerage account incurs these tax implications, while gold held in tax-preferred retirement accounts like IRAs is exempt from these rules [9] - The complexity of tax filings for gold futures funds, which often require K-1 forms, may deter some investors despite potential tax advantages [13]

Core Insights - Gold prices have recently reached record highs, surpassing $4,300 per ounce on October 17, marking significant gains since the financial crisis in September 2008 [1][3] - A sharp 2% pullback occurred by the end of the week, representing the largest weekly loss in over two months, which some traders view as a cooling-off period [2][4] - Analysts remain optimistic about gold's future, with projections indicating potential price increases to $5,000 by 2026 [5][6] Market Drivers - The rally in gold prices was driven by rising fiscal uncertainty due to the U.S. government shutdown, a weakening dollar, escalating geopolitical tensions, and fears of a broader market correction [3][4] - Central banks are expected to purchase around 900 tons of gold in 2025, contributing to strong demand [3] Investment Vehicles - Gold ETFs are preferred over physical gold due to lower costs, liquidity, and ease of trading, allowing investors to respond quickly to market changes [7] - Year-to-date, gold ETFs have added 638 tonnes, bringing total holdings to 3,857 tonnes as of October 13 [8] Gold ETFs Overview - SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has approximately $142.22 billion in Assets Under Management (AUM) and a year-to-date increase of 60.7% [10][11] - iShares Gold Trust (IAU) has $66.17 billion in AUM with a year-to-date increase of 62.9% [12] - iShares Gold Trust Micro (IAUM) has $5.61 billion in AUM and a year-to-date increase of 63.2% [13] - abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL) has $7.09 billion in AUM with a year-to-date increase of 60.9% [14]

Core Insights - Gold prices have surged by 27.01% over the past six months and 53.85% year to date, reaching over $4,000, making it one of the best-performing assets of the year [1] - Strong investor inflows into gold ETFs, a weaker dollar, and sustained central bank buying are driving this increase [1][2] - Market expectations of further Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions could extend gold's gains into 2026, suggesting a favorable environment for increased portfolio allocation to gold [2] ETF Demand and Projections - Investor demand for gold-backed ETFs surged in September, marking the largest inflows in over three years [6] - Goldman Sachs and UBS have raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs projecting a price of $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, up from $4,300 [5][6] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 94.6% likelihood of an interest rate cut in October and a 99.3% likelihood in December, which is expected to further support gold prices [4] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider allocating up to 15% of their portfolios to gold, contrary to traditional advice of limiting alternative asset classes to single-digit percentages [3] - A long-term passive investment strategy is recommended to navigate short-term market fluctuations, with a "buy-the-dip" approach suggested for potential declines in gold prices [9] ETF Options - For physical gold exposure, investors can consider SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM), abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL), and iShares Gold Trust Micro (IAUM) [8] - GLD is noted for its liquidity with an average trading volume of 14.48 million shares and an asset base of $128.64 billion, making it the largest among gold ETFs [10] - For gold miners, options include VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM), VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), and Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ), with GDX being the most liquid and having an asset base of $22.96 billion [11][12]

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold price has risen 10.63% over the past month and 42.90% year to date, driven by dollar weakness, central bank buying, and safe-haven demand [1] - The precious metal is trading near its record high, marking its sixth consecutive week of upward momentum, influenced by geopolitical tensions and high ETF inflows [2] - Strong fundamental indicators could extend gold's gains into late 2025 and 2026, suggesting increased portfolio allocation [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Impact - The Fed's first rate cut of 2025 in September supported the gold rally, as interest rate cuts weaken the U.S. dollar, increasing gold demand [3] - Recent data showing stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP growth has eased speculation of additional rate cuts, with an 87.7% likelihood of a cut in October and 96.6% in December [4] - Even without further rate cuts, the market has priced in two cuts for 2025, meaning deviations from expectations could boost gold prices [5] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Gold remains a crucial hedge amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, with various ETFs available for increased exposure [6] - Recommended physical gold ETFs include SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and others, with GLD being the most liquid option [7] - A long-term passive investment strategy is advised, encouraging a "buy-the-dip" approach despite potential short-term declines [8] Group 4: Gold Miners ETFs - Gold miners ETFs provide access to the gold mining industry, magnifying gold's gains and losses, with options like VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) [11] - GDX is the most liquid option with an asset base of $21.64 billion, while GDXJ has outperformed others, gaining 23.82% over the past month and 76.85% over the past year [12]

Core Insights - Gold's rally is expected to continue, supported by the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts and anticipated further cuts later in the year [1][2] - The price of gold has increased by 11.19% over the past month and 41.48% year-to-date, driven by dollar weakness, central bank buying, and safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions [1][2] - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has decreased by 1.21% over the past month and 10.24% year-to-date, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [5] Economic Indicators - The market anticipates a 91.9% likelihood of an interest rate cut in October and a 98.8% likelihood in December, which is expected to further weaken the dollar and boost gold demand [3][4] - Rising inflation concerns and legal uncertainties regarding tariffs under the Trump administration are adding to macroeconomic volatility, suggesting that gold's rally may persist [2] Investment Strategies - Gold is viewed as a crucial hedge in uncertain macroeconomic conditions, prompting investors to consider increasing their exposure to the precious metal [6] - Recommended ETFs for physical gold include SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and others, with GLD being the most liquid option with an asset base of $116.49 billion [7][9] - For gold miners, options include VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM), with GDX also being the most liquid and having an asset base of $19.93 billion [10][11]