Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Oil, Gas, and Chemicals - **Key Trends**: - OPEC+ is expected to fully unwind production cuts, leading to increased oil supply surplus expectations. - Brent crude oil prices fell by 3% month-over-month (MoM) to US$67.3 per barrel in August, indicating weaker prices as peak demand season ends. [2][28] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day (Mb/d) in 2025, increasing to 3.0 Mb/d in 2026. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts around 1.5 Mb/d for both years. [2][28] Chemical Sector Insights - **Price Movements**: - TDI (Toluene Diisocyanate) average selling price (ASP) increased by 13% MoM, but showed a downward trend due to soft demand and higher supply. [3] - mMDI (Modified MDI) ASP rose by 7% MoM, supported by maintenance periods for some plants. [3] - Refrigerant R32 ASP also increased by 7% MoM, driven by strong producer bargaining power. [3] - **Demand Dynamics**: - Price increases were noted among TiO2 producers and polyester filament businesses, indicating potential for further price hikes in the near term. [4] - Products with tight supply include acetic acid, hydrogen peroxide, refrigerants, and others, suggesting potential price support. [4] Stock Recommendations - **Preferred Sectors**: - Chemical subsectors are favored as beneficiaries of 'anti-involution', particularly: - Fertilizers (Hualu) - Refining/Olefins (Hengli, Baofeng, Satellite) - Products with price hike potential (Wanhua for pMDI, Tongkun for polyester filament, Fufeng/Meihua for MSG, and refrigerants). [5] Risk Factors - **Oil & Gas Sector Risks**: - Fluctuations in crude oil prices and disappointing productivity enhancements could impact the sector. [28] - **Chemical Sector Risks**: - Price volatility due to international oil price changes and macroeconomic uncertainties could affect demand. [29] - **New Materials Sector Risks**: - Technological changes and reliance on policy support pose risks to revenue growth and stability. [30] Price Trends and Spreads - **Chemical Product Prices**: - Significant price changes were observed in various chemical products, with some experiencing declines of over 30% year-over-year (YoY). [27] - For example, butyl acrylate saw a 20.9% decrease MoM, while methanol-coal prices increased by 63.5% YoY. [27] Conclusion - The oil and chemical sectors are facing a complex landscape characterized by supply surpluses, price volatility, and shifting demand dynamics. Investors are advised to monitor these trends closely for potential investment opportunities and risks.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is targeting a quarterly EPS run rate of $2, which is considered achievable with concrete plans in place [11][15] - Free cash flow generation is prioritized, with a guide of $700 to $800 million for the year, indicating strong operational cash flow despite high interest expenses [21][71] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Engineered Materials segment, there has been a noted weakness in demand, particularly in China and Europe, while the Americas remain stable [8][9] - The Acetyl segment is experiencing a similar trend, with expectations of continued softness in demand for certain products [25][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Western Hemisphere is reported to have the lowest acetyl demand in twenty years, impacting overall performance [76] - The company is seeing a shift in customer behavior, with many reducing inventory levels due to uncertainty in demand [85] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on cost structure improvements and executing differentiated business models to enhance profitability [11][15] - There is an emphasis on diversifying the Engineered Materials business beyond automotive applications, targeting sectors like drug delivery and clean energy [96] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the current demand environment is weak but expresses confidence in the company's ability to adapt and capture future opportunities [40][41] - The visibility of order books is currently low, complicating predictions for the fourth quarter [62] Other Important Information - The company is actively pursuing divestitures, with a focus on maximizing profitability and reducing complexity in transactions [105][112] - The MicroMax divestiture process is progressing well, with management expressing confidence in achieving their targets [105] Q&A Session Summary Question: What end markets are seeing weakening demand? - Management noted a pullback in China automotive orders and some weakness in European demand, while the Americas remain stable [8] Question: How does the company plan to achieve the $2 EPS target? - The company has identified controllable actions in cost structure and pricing strategies to reach the target, although it may take longer than initially expected [11][15] Question: Are tariffs affecting the tow business in China? - Management confirmed that the tow business in China is not impacted by tariffs as it operates through joint ventures [30] Question: What is the outlook for the acetic acid business in China? - Management indicated that while the market is challenging, they are not speculating on future capacity rationalization due to anti-involution policies [45] Question: How is the company managing its debt maturities? - The company plans to address debt maturities through free cash flow generation and divestiture proceeds, rather than relying on its revolver [64] Question: What is the impact of inventory reduction initiatives on earnings? - Management explained that inventory reduction efforts are expected to have a sequential negative impact on earnings in the short term but are part of a long-term strategy [19][24] Question: How does the company view the current demand environment? - Management expressed that while the demand environment is weak, they are focused on operational efficiency and preparing for future demand changes [40][41]