Core Viewpoint - The domestic chemical market is expected to face an oversupply in 2025, with prices of various chemical products hitting new lows in November, indicating a weak market driven primarily by macroeconomic factors rather than crude oil prices [1][8]. Market Trends - The chemical market experienced fluctuations from January to March, with a peak in January followed by a decline due to geopolitical tensions and tariff impacts, leading to a low opening after the Spring Festival [3][4]. - In the second quarter, the market was heavily influenced by U.S. tariffs and trade tensions, resulting in significant volatility, with a brief recovery in June due to positive trade negotiations [5]. - The third quarter saw a weak overall market, but a slight recovery was noted due to domestic supply-side reforms and the elimination of outdated production capacity [7]. - The fourth quarter continued to reflect weak demand against high supply, with a notable decline in prices across multiple chemical products, although a slight rebound was expected towards the end of December [8]. Price Movements - As of November 18, 2025, 116 out of 131 monitored chemical products had decreased in price since the beginning of the year, representing 89% of the total, while only 15 products saw price increases [8]. - The leading price increase was observed in the sulfur market, with a rise of 2,420 yuan/ton (+156.13%), while products like SEBS and butadiene experienced significant declines of -26.44% and -39.69%, respectively [9]. Profitability - Most chemical products are operating at marginal or negative profit margins, with many experiencing increased losses compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a challenging operational environment for chemical companies [8].

行 华福证券 建筑材料 2025 年 11 月 20 日 业 研 究 建筑材料 开竣工数据进一步走弱，期待更强政策发力 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 根据国家统计局数据，1-10 月全国房地产开发投资 7.4 万亿元，同比 -14.7%，较前值-0.8pct；房屋新开工 4.9 亿方，同比-19.8%，较前值-0.9pct； 房屋竣工 3.5 亿方，同比-16.9%，较前值-1.6pct；1-10 月新建商品房销售面 积 7.2 亿方，同比-6.8%，较前值-1.3pct；销售金额 6.9 万亿元，同比-9.6%， 较前值-1.7pct；10 月末全国商品房待售面积 75606 万平方米，连续八个月 减少；住建部部署全国老城区老街区专项调查，2026 年 2 月前各地须完成 地市级成果审核，6 月形成全国总结报告；山东省要求 2025-2026 年度水泥 行业实施采暖季错峰生产，非采暖季鼓励企业自主开展错峰生产；深圳市 10 月二手房录得量达 5,547 套，环比下跌 4.5%，同比下跌 32.9%；重庆市 印发《进一步加强消费领域限制性举措持续扩大消费若干措施》，明确放 宽全款购房的公积金提取条件；1 ...

证券研究报告——造纸行业周报 1 执业证书编号：S0770524020002 邮箱：yangst@dtsbc.com.cn 包装纸提价+库存收缩，造纸板块复苏动能强化 【2025.11.10-2025.11.16】 行业评级：看好 核心观点 风险提示 需求不及预期风险，原材料价格波动风险，政策落地偏差风险。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 研究助理：温慧 执业证书编号：S0770125070012 邮箱：wenh@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 发布日期：2025.11.17 造纸行情走势图 包装纸提价潮持续，成本与供给双重支撑：本周包装纸"龙头 引领+全行业跟涨"态势明确，玖龙、山鹰等头部企业多基地 上调瓦楞纸、牛卡纸等价格 50 元/吨，山西强伟纸业等中小纸 企跟进，涨幅 30-80 元/吨。终端价格同步走强，箱板纸、瓦 楞纸均价周环比均上涨 80 元/吨，白板纸因纸企停机检修、库 存下降，价格区间扩至 2500-3850 元/吨。废纸成本居高不下 （废旧黄板纸均价 1934 元/吨）叠加再生浆进口政策变化导致 的供给收缩，成 ...

基础化工 超配（维持） 基础化工行业双周报（2025/10/31-2025/11/13） 10 月份化学原料和化学制品制造业增加值同比增长 7.1% 2025 年 11 月 14 日 分析师：苏治彬 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523080001 电话：0769-22110925 邮箱： suzhibin@dgzq.com.cn 行业指数走势 资料来源：iFinD，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 ◼ 行情回顾：截至11月13日，近两周申万基础化工指数上涨8.4%，跑赢沪 深300指数8.5个百分点，在31个申万行业中排第1名；年初至今，申万基 础化工指数上涨35.9%，跑赢沪深300指数16.4个百分点，在31个申万行 业中排第6名。 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 周 报 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 投资要点： | 图 | 1：近两周 31 个申万行业指数涨跌幅情况（单位：%）（截至 | | | 11 | 月 | 13 | 日） | 3 | | --- | --- | -- ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Oxalic Acid Industry and Hualu Hengsheng's Insights Industry Overview - The oxalic acid industry is experiencing significant growth, with Hualu Hengsheng benefiting from an expansion to an annual production capacity of 700,000 tons, indicating a strong potential for price increases in oxalic acid [1][4] - The demand for oxalic acid is rapidly increasing in key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, rare earths, and new energy, with consumption in these areas doubling year-on-year, suggesting a positive outlook for oxalic acid demand [9][10] Company Insights - Hualu Hengsheng is expected to see substantial benefits from the anticipated recovery in the prices of its products, including oxalic acid, urea, and other chemicals, particularly in 2026 [1][4] - The company has a competitive edge due to its integrated production processes, allowing for flexible switching between the production of ethylene glycol, dimethyl oxalate, and oxalic acid, which enhances cost control and profitability [2][13][14] - Future growth drivers for Hualu Hengsheng include upgrades to existing facilities, the release of urea production capacity, and the launch of new TDI projects, which are expected to contribute significantly to the company's overall performance [5][15] Market Dynamics - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry is positive, with signs of a recovery in capital expenditures since 2025 and a potential increase in demand driven by domestic policies and overseas interest rate cuts [7] - On a micro level, the growth rate of new chemical plants has slowed significantly since 2024, with some segments experiencing zero new capacity additions, which, combined with increasing demand for quality chemical materials, is expected to lead to a supply-demand recovery [8] Competitive Landscape - The oxalic acid market is characterized by high concentration, with Hualu Hengsheng holding a significant market share, providing it with competitive and pricing power [11] - Current operating rates among manufacturers are around 80%, with recent signs of price increases, indicating a favorable market outlook without immediate plans for new capacity additions [11] Price Trends - The price of oxalic acid has been on a downward trend over the past two years, currently around 3,000 RMB per ton, but is expected to rebound as supply tightens. Historical prices have reached 5,000 to 6,000 RMB per ton, suggesting significant price elasticity if demand improves [12] Future Growth Areas - Hualu Hengsheng is also exploring potential growth in TDI projects and other bulk chemical products like DMF and formic acid, which are expected to benefit from the overall recovery of the industry and collaborative pricing strategies [16]

Summary of the Oil and Chemical Industry Outlook for 2026 Industry Overview - The chemical industry has been in a downturn for over three years, with both the chemical price index and industry profit margins at low levels. The chemical product price index in China has decreased by 10.3% from early 2025 to the present, currently at the 10.6% percentile since 2012 [2][7] - The profit margin for chemical raw materials and products from January to August 2025 is at 4.14%, the lowest since 2017. The gross margin and net margin for petrochemical listed companies in Q2 2025 are 16.05% and 4.63%, respectively, also among the lowest in recent years [2][7] Capital Expenditure and Capacity Changes - Capital expenditures in the petrochemical sector have been declining, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.3% in 2024 and 15.1% in the first half of 2025. The industry has seen a continuous decline in capital expenditure for seven consecutive quarters since Q4 2023 [3][8] - Significant capacity exits are expected in Europe, with a total of 11 million tons of chemical capacity expected to be withdrawn from 2023 to October 2024. Companies like Westlake Chemical and Total have announced closures of their production facilities in Europe and Japan [3][8] Potential for Recovery - The industry is anticipated to reach a turning point in the capacity cycle due to favorable supply-side factors accumulating. The petrochemical industry is implementing measures to control major project constructions and prevent overcapacity risks in coal-based methanol production [3][8] - The outlook for the chemical sector is optimistic, with expectations of a reversal in the industry cycle. The basic chemical sector's price-to-book ratio is currently at 2.07x, within the 32.6% percentile since 2012, indicating potential for recovery [4][20] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several investment opportunities in the chemical sector, particularly in leading companies with low valuations and significant profit growth expected in 2026. Key areas of interest include: 1. The fiber industry chain, such as PTA and polyester filament, and agricultural chains like pesticides and potassium fertilizers [4][20] 2. Emerging materials related to AI and robotics [4][20] Risks - Potential risks include a significant drop in oil prices, lower-than-expected economic growth, and rapid increases in industry investment growth [5] Conclusion - The oil and chemical industry is poised for a potential recovery after a prolonged downturn, with various factors indicating a turning point in the capacity cycle. Investors are encouraged to consider opportunities in undervalued companies and sectors expected to benefit from the upcoming changes in the market dynamics [4][20]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The chemical industry has experienced a capacity investment cycle, leading to price volatility and weakened expectations for price increases, resulting in price declines [1][2][3] - Despite the strengthening of leading companies, oversupply and ineffective cost support have pressured short-term profitability, with long-term industry losses being unsustainable [1][2] - By the second half of 2024, most chemical products are expected to hit new low profitability levels due to weak demand and low inventory [1][2] Key Insights and Arguments - The end of the capacity investment cycle and the implementation of anti-involution policies are expected to lead to a contraction in supply and gradual improvement in demand, which may enhance price expectations for chemical products [1][2][3] - Since September 2024, although chemical prices have bottomed out, leading stocks have not reached new lows, with some even hitting new highs, indicating improved market expectations [1][3] - Companies with technological, environmental, and carbon emission advantages are expected to benefit first from these changes [3] Specific Product Insights - **Silicone and PTA**: These sectors have shown good price increases driven by anti-involution policies, with strong willingness among upstream and downstream industries to support prices [1][4] - **Wanhua Chemical**: The MDI business shows strong profitability, with TDI expected to rebound. The petrochemical sector's PDH and ethylene facilities are anticipated to demonstrate resilience during upward cycles [1][4][5] - **Hualu Hengsheng**: Maintains competitive advantage through cost efficiency, achieving 800 million yuan in profit despite industry-wide losses. Future projects are expected to contribute to growth [7] - **Huafeng Chemical**: As a leader in the polyurethane materials industry, it benefits from significant production capacity and cost control, with strong growth expected in the spandex market [8] Market Dynamics - The PTA industry has faced rapid capacity expansion with lagging downstream demand, leading to long-term profitability pressure. However, new capacity investments are nearing completion, suggesting a potential recovery [9][10] - Oil price fluctuations have positively impacted petrochemical asset evaluations, with Brent crude prices dropping from approximately $80 to the $60-65 range, alleviating previous valuation pressures [11][12] - The chemical industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with overseas capacity exits expected to aid domestic market recovery [13][14] Policy and Future Outlook - Domestic anti-involution policies have been implemented to stabilize growth in the petrochemical sector, with expectations for improved operational conditions [15] - Emerging demand in new energy sectors is anticipated to create growth opportunities for related companies, with significant investments in new materials and production capacities [16] - The organic silicon sector is entering a recovery phase, with demand growth expected to absorb excess capacity [17] - Overall, the chemical sector is showing signs of recovery, with potential shifts in supply-demand balance anticipated in the coming years [18][19]

Group 1 - The overall performance of the chemical new materials industry in the Beijing Stock Exchange is improving, with many companies reducing losses or turning profitable in the first three quarters of 2025. However, some companies are still affected by industry downturns, leading to a year-on-year decline in performance for Q1-Q3 2025 [2][10][18] - The average Return on Equity (ROE) for the chemical new materials industry in Q1-Q3 2025 is 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point compared to the same period in 2024. The overall gross profit margin is 17.7%, and the net profit margin is 5.2%, both showing improvement year-on-year [17][18] - The battery materials sector has shown remarkable performance, achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of 525 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 244%. The chemical products sector follows with a net profit of 716 million yuan, up 66% year-on-year [18][19] Group 2 - The chemical new materials industry on the Beijing Stock Exchange experienced a slight decline of 0.23% this week, while the battery materials sector performed well with a weekly increase of 11.45% [3][25][26] - Notable individual stock performances this week include: Andar Technology (+20.38%), Jinhua New Materials (+13.28%), and Deer Chemical (+11.13%) [30][32] - The price trends of various chemical products show fluctuations, with Brent crude oil priced at $66.43 per barrel, and MDI at 19,150 yuan per ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 2.41% [35][36]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry has been in a downward cycle for over three years, with low chemical price indices and industry profit margins. The price index for Chinese chemical products has decreased by 10.3% from early 2025 to now, currently at the 10.6% percentile since 2012. The profit margin for chemical raw materials and products was only 4.14% from January to August 2025, the lowest since 2017. The gross and net profit margins for petrochemical companies in Q2 2025 were 16.05% and 4.63%, respectively, also at low levels in recent years [2][5][20]. Group 1: Industry Downturn and Recovery Potential - The chemical manufacturing industry has faced a downturn for over three years, with increasing midstream chemical production capacity and pressure on downstream demand, alongside falling prices of upstream commodities like oil and coal [2][5]. - Capital expenditures in the petrochemical sector have continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.3% in 2024 and 15.1% in the first half of 2025. The industry has seen a consistent decline in capital expenditures for seven consecutive quarters since Q4 2023 [3][9]. - The exit of overseas production capacity, particularly in Europe, is expected to alleviate global supply-demand imbalances. A total of 11 million tons of chemical production capacity is set to exit Europe between 2023 and October 2024 [3][9]. Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The industry is experiencing a shift in policy aimed at controlling new refining capacity and managing the pace of new ethylene and PX production capacity to prevent overcapacity in coal-based methanol [3][10]. - The basic chemical sector's price-to-book ratio was 2.07x as of October 22, 2025, at the 32.6% percentile since 2012, indicating potential for long-term investment opportunities as favorable supply-side factors accumulate [3][20]. - The demand for bulk chemicals remains weak globally, but emerging manufacturing sectors related to AI, humanoid robots, and solid-state batteries are driving rapid growth in material demand [20][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, and Daotong Technology [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in sulfur, sulfuric acid, and lithium battery electrolyte, suggesting a focus on import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend opportunities [6][19]. - The chemical industry is currently experiencing a weak overall performance, with mixed results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [22]. - The report emphasizes the potential for the glyphosate industry to enter a recovery phase, recommending companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [8][22]. - It suggests focusing on companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additive sector and coal-to-olefins industry [22]. - The report also notes the impact of international oil price fluctuations on the chemical sector, with a recommendation to pay attention to companies benefiting from lower raw material costs due to declining oil prices [20][22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report suggests monitoring the glyphosate industry for potential recovery, with a focus on companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [8][22]. - It highlights the importance of selecting stocks with good competitive dynamics and profitability, particularly in the lubricant additive and coal-to-olefins sectors [22]. Price Trends of Chemical Products - Significant price increases were noted for sulfur (10.77%), lithium battery electrolyte (10.53%), and sulfuric acid (9.09%) [19]. - Conversely, products like R22 saw a drastic price drop of 60.49%, indicating volatility in the market [19]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the influence of geopolitical events, such as US sanctions on Russia, on international oil prices, which are expected to remain around $65 per barrel [20][24]. - It also mentions the mixed performance of the chemical industry due to varying demand across different sectors, with some areas like lubricants performing better than others [22].