证券研究报告 基础化工周报：需求偏弱，MDI价格偏弱运行 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年7月13日 2 ◼ 【聚氨酯板块】本周纯MDI/聚合MDI/TDI行业均价为16640/14800/12120元/吨，环比分别-300/-420/+120元/ 吨，纯MDI/聚合MDI/TDI行业毛利分别为3565/2765/1110元/吨，环比分别-153/-295/+213元/吨。 ◼ 【油煤气烯烃板块】①本周乙烷/丙烷/动力煤/石脑油均价分别为1254/4135/483/4211元/吨，环比分别 +56/+65/+13/+102元/吨。②本周聚乙烯均价为7931元/吨，环比-15元/吨，乙烷裂解/CTO/石脑油裂解制聚乙烯 理论利润分别为1304/2046/68元/吨，环比分别-62/-44/-119元/吨。③本周聚丙烯均价为7064元/吨，环比-56元/ 吨，PDH/CTO/石脑油裂解制聚 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, and others [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests focusing on import substitution, pure domestic demand, and high dividend opportunities in the chemical industry [6][20]. - The international oil price is expected to stabilize between $65 and $70 per barrel in 2025, influenced by geopolitical factors and trade agreements [6][21]. - The chemical industry is currently experiencing a mixed performance, with some sectors like lubricants showing better-than-expected results, while others remain weak due to overcapacity and weak demand [20][21]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - Key products with significant price increases include butanone (up 13.55%), urea (up 13.16%), and TDI (up 6.73%) [17]. - Products with notable price declines include methanol (down 9.84%), PS (down 9.62%), and pure MDI (down 8.89%) [17][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors like glyphosate, fertilizers, and companies with strong domestic demand [20][21]. Market Performance - The basic chemical sector has shown a performance of 20.4% over the past 12 months, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2]. - The report highlights the volatility in international oil prices, with Brent crude at $68.30 per barrel and WTI at $66.50 per barrel as of July 4 [6][21]. Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - Specific companies recommended for investment include Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, and others, with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth and favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [10]. - The report suggests that companies like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation are attractive due to their high dividend yields [6][20].

Group 1 - The overall industry sentiment shows an upward trend in coal, machinery, electronics, food and beverage, textiles, non-bank financials, public utilities, and retail, while electricity equipment, pharmaceuticals, light manufacturing, home appliances, automotive, banking, real estate, and environmental protection are on a downward trend [1] - The automotive sector sees a significant increase in daily sales of passenger cars by 18.44%, but the operating rate of semi-steel tires has decreased by 7.64 percentage points [1] - The machinery equipment sector reports a 4.65% increase in the ex-factory price of liquid oxygen [1] Group 2 - The convertible bond market experienced a decline this week, with the weighted average conversion value increasing to 94.08 yuan, up by 2.58 yuan from last week, and the weighted average premium rate decreasing by 2.77 percentage points to 45.56% [4] - There is a recommendation to focus on convertible bond downshift opportunities, particularly as recent downshift proposals have seen significant price increases [4] Group 3 - The reform and risk mitigation of village and town banks is a key focus for financial work in 2024, with over 50 village banks undergoing mergers and restructuring in the first half of the year [5] - The overall performance of banks remains stable, with investment value supported by high valuations and policy benefits [5] Group 4 - Lens Technology and Luxshare Precision are planning to list in Hong Kong, enhancing their global presence, while the US-Vietnam trade agreement is expected to lower supply chain costs for Apple [8] - The upcoming release of Nvidia's GB300 AI chip is anticipated to significantly boost revenue opportunities, with AI server revenue expected to exceed 50% [8] Group 5 - The instant beverage market is projected to grow significantly, with China's per capita consumption still having room for improvement [17] - IFBH's successful IPO and strong revenue growth highlight its leading position in the coconut water market, which is expected to continue expanding [17] Group 6 - The cement supply-side reform focuses on eliminating excess capacity, with a current utilization rate of only 53%, indicating potential for improvement [20] - The electronic cloth sector is experiencing a positive outlook due to increased demand driven by computing power expectations [20]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月08日 标配 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] [table_main] 投资要点： 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 张晶磊 S0630524090001 zjlei@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -17% -9% 0% 8% 17% 25% 34% 24-07 24-10 25-01 25-04 申万行业指数:基础化工(0722) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.卫星化学（002648）：美国恢复对 华乙烷出口，看好公司稀缺性、成长 性——公司简评报告 2.小米、荣耀等新产品频出，关注新 材料国产化进程——基础化工行业 周报（2025/6/23-2025/6/29） 3.供给优化的弹性β，需求驱动的优 质α——基础化工2025中期投资策 略 [Table_NewTitle 反内卷政策持续发力， ...

化工行业周报（20250630-20250706） 本周液氯、丁酮、TDI、环氧氯丙烷等产品涨幅居前 2025 年 07 月 07 日 化工周观点： ➢ 重点关注半年报业绩好的标的。建议开始寻找二季度景气度好，业绩有望超 预期的标的，建议关注圣泉集团、海利得和卓越新能。首先是与宏观经济波动相 关性较弱，受益 AI 资本开支持续提升的新材料行业，圣泉集团是 AI 服务器中核 心电子树脂的主要国内供应商，随着下游服务器出货量持续放量，公司业绩有望 环比提升。其次是海外有工厂，受益于美国关税冲突的细分行业龙头，建议关注 涤纶工业丝的领军企业海利得。并建议关注公司自身产能增长，随着新项目新产 品投产，业绩有望上一个台阶的卓越新能。 ➢ 磷肥出口窗口期已至，磷肥高景气有望持续。根据中国化肥信息网，磷肥的 出口指导具体情况如下：1、2025 年磷肥出口或将分阶段进行，首批集中在 5-9 月高峰期，第二批视国内供需动态调整。2、法检时间缩减，预计半月左右时间。 3、2025 年磷肥出口配额总量比去年减少。当前磷肥处于春耕后的淡季，出口有 望缓解国内产能过剩问题，国际高价出口有望进一步维持企业盈利水平，建议关 注具备磷矿资源 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 基础化工 证券研究报告 D-阿洛酮糖获批，TDI、DMF 价格上涨 上周指 25 年 6 月 23-29 日（下同），本周指 25 年 6 月 30 日-7 月 6 日（下同）。 本周重点新闻跟踪 7 月 2 日，国家卫健委官网发布《关于 D—阿洛酮糖等 20 种"三新食品"的公 告》，根据《中华人民共和国食品安全法》规定，审评机构组织专家对 D-阿洛酮 糖等 5 种物质申请作为新食品原料，氨基肽酶等 9 种物质申请作为食品添加剂新品 种，月桂酸铵等 6 种物质申请作为食品相关产品新品种的安全性评估材料进行审查 并通过。 本周重点产品价格跟踪点评 本周 WTI 油价上涨 1.5%，为 66.5 美元/桶。 重点关注子行业：本周 TDI/DMF/乙二醇/电石法 PVC 价格分别上涨 6.7%/5.1%/0.5%/0.1%；VE/重质纯碱/轻质纯碱/聚合 MDI/醋酸/纯 MDI/钛白粉/VA/橡 胶/烧碱价格分别下跌 7.6%/7.4%/5.5%/4.3%/2.3%/1.8%/1.5%/0.8%/0.7%/0.5%；氨纶/乙烯 法 PVC/尿素/固体蛋氨酸/液体蛋氨酸/粘胶长丝/粘胶 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights the need to prevent disorderly competition and encourages companies to enhance product quality while promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity. Focus areas include silicon materials, coal chemical, and chlor-alkali chemical sectors, with price increases expected in potassium fertilizers, phosphorus fertilizers, active dyes, and pesticides [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 3518.55, with a 52-week high of 3564.08 and a low of 2687.54 [2] - The basic chemical sector experienced a weekly change of +0.80%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which had a weekly change of +1.54% [6][19] Stock Performance - Notable stock price increases include: - Kaimete Gas: +27.46% - Kete Biology: +21.90% - Jiuri New Materials: +21.01% [7][20] - Significant stock price decreases include: - Tiansheng New Materials: -15.80% - Jinji Co.: -15.34% - Xinyaqiang: -14.41% [8][21] Commodity Price Movements - Key commodities with price increases include: - Dichloropropane-white material: +8.82% - Isobutyraldehyde: +7.20% - TDI: +7.02% [9][23] - Key commodities with price decreases include: - Liquid chlorine: -86.51% - Chick seedlings: -47.31% - Meta-cresol: -9.09% [10][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on opportunities in silicon materials, coal chemical, and chlor-alkali chemical sectors while monitoring price trends in fertilizers and pesticides [5][6]

证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 29% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究 1.《——光引发剂更新②-PCB 需求 复苏+行业集中度提升，光引发剂协 同行情或水到渠成》，2025.7.3 2.《供需关系存在改善预期，光引发 剂景气有望修复》，2025.6.30 3.《SAF 价格持续回升，光引发剂景 气有望修复》，2025.6.30 4.《关注钾肥板块投资机会》， 2025.6.22 5.《钾肥大合同落地，关注钾肥景 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 基础化工 优于大市（维持） [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 本周基础化工板块表现落后大盘。根据 Wind，本周（6/27-7/4）上证综指涨跌幅为 +1.4%，创业板指数涨跌幅为+1.5%；申万基础化工行业指数涨跌幅为+0.8%，在 全部 31 个行业板块中位列第 16 位， ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 07 月 07 日 异丁醛、TDI 价格涨幅居前，建议关注 Q2 业绩环比有望高增的标的 招商化工行业周报 2025 年 7 月第 1 周 周期/化工 本报告阐述了基础化工板块一周行情走势、产品价格及价差变化、重点推荐子 行业及公司。 板块整体走势 7 月第 1 周化工板块（申万）上涨 0.80%，上证 A 指上涨 1.40%，板块落后 大盘 0.60 个百分点。涨幅排名前 5 的个股分别为：蓝丰生化（+16.97%）， 华西股份（+13.28%），丰元股份（+9.09%），东材科技（+7.49%），顾地 科技（+5.92%）；跌幅排名前 5 的个股分别为：鸿达兴业（-11.06%），*ST 榕泰（-8.92%），世龙实业（-8.62%），广信材料（-7.13%），中泰化学（-5.14%）。 此外，本周化工板块（申万）动态 PE 为 24.98 倍，低于 2015 年来的平均 PE 8.33%。 细分子行业走势 7 月第 1 周化工行业 24 个子行业上涨，7 个子行业下跌。上涨子行业前五是： 玻纤（+17%），复合肥（+3.2%），其他塑料制品（+3.08%）， ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices this year. Key areas to focus on in July include safety regulations, supply changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations due to "export rush," the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [2][12] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of June 30 to July 6, among 100 tracked chemical products, 25 saw price increases, 56 saw declines, and 19 remained stable. The average price of TDI increased by 7.02% week-on-week, while the average price of acrylic acid rose by 3.65% [11][36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on safety regulations and supply changes affecting the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations from the first half of the year, the growing importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies. Long-term investment themes include sustained high crude oil prices benefiting the oil and gas extraction sector, rapid development in downstream industries, and policy support for demand recovery [12][19] Key Products and Price Changes - TDI prices increased to 12,013 CNY/ton, while acrylic acid prices reached 7,100 CNY/ton, reflecting a 14.52% year-on-year increase. The average price of crude oil also saw slight increases, with WTI at 66.50 USD/barrel and Brent at 68.30 USD/barrel [11][35][36] Company Highlights - Satellite Chemical and Anji Technology are highlighted as "gold stocks" for July, with both companies showing strong revenue and profit growth in 2024. Satellite Chemical reported a revenue of 45.648 billion CNY, a 10.03% increase year-on-year, while Anji Technology achieved a revenue of 1.835 billion CNY, a 48.24% increase year-on-year [13][19]