Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, but leading Chinese companies have strong cash flow and low debt ratios, which may enhance potential dividend yields as capacity expansion slows down [1][3][5] - Global GDP growth supports chemical demand, and changes on the supply side combined with demand growth are expected to lead to a recovery in industry prosperity [1][4] Key Insights - The "anti-involution" policy aims to control new capacity in sectors like coal chemical, refining, and polyurethane, which may still yield considerable dividend rates even at the cycle's bottom [1][5] - The industrial silicon and soda ash sectors, which are currently in surplus, have greater elasticity due to restrictions on existing and new capacities [1][5] - The oil and gas chemical sector has begun to see positive free cash flow in 2024, indicating a gradual improvement in the industry [8] Financial Metrics - In 2024, the net cash flow for the chemical industry is projected to shrink to nearly 20 billion, while total operating cash flow exceeds 250 billion [7] - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease from 350 billion to below 300 billion [7] - By 2025 or 2026, the industry is anticipated to generate positive net free cash flow, marking a historic shift [7] Company-Specific Insights - Hualu Hengsheng's market value in 2024 is approximately 50.6 billion, with cash flow expected to rise from 5 billion in 2025 to 8.3 billion by 2027, suggesting attractive dividend yields even in a downturn [9] - The European chemical production capacity utilization is at a historical low of around 74%, indicating that high-cost production is unlikely to recover, which benefits Chinese companies with cost advantages [10][11] Future Trends - The chemical industry is expected to see a rebound in prosperity due to low inventory levels and attractive valuations [11] - The exit of high-cost European production will allow Chinese leaders to further consolidate and expand their market positions [11] - The polyurethane sector is currently at a cyclical low, but price recovery is anticipated due to supply constraints and demand growth [18][19] Challenges and Opportunities - The olefin industry faces challenges with low prices, but strict approval processes for new capacities may lead to a recovery if production contracts [16] - The refining sector is grappling with overcapacity and outdated facilities, but the anti-involution policy may help improve market conditions for major players [17] - The organic silicon market is at a historical low, but limited new capacity and potential overseas exits may lead to a recovery in the medium to long term [24][25][26] Sector-Specific Recommendations - Focus on companies in controlled capacity sectors like coal chemicals (e.g., Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy) and refining (e.g., Sinopec) for potential dividend yields [5][17] - Monitor the industrial silicon market for companies like Hesheng Silicon Industry, which may see profit doubling if prices recover [32] - In the soda ash sector, companies like Boyuan Chemical are worth watching as they navigate a challenging market [33] Conclusion - The chemical industry is poised for a potential recovery driven by policy changes, strong cash flows from leading companies, and a favorable global economic backdrop. Investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and those positioned to benefit from supply-side constraints and market shifts.

证券研究报告 基础化工周报：受出口端影响，尿素价格波动运行 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年8月24日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 ◼ 【聚氨酯板块】本周纯MDI/聚合MDI/TDI行业均价为17950/15580/15489元/吨，环比分别+10/-210/-515元/吨， 纯MDI/聚合MDI/TDI行业毛利分别为4577/3241/4619元/吨，环比分别+5/-238/+121元/吨。 ◼ 【油煤气烯烃板块】①本周乙烷/丙烷/动力煤/石脑油均价分别为1118/4076/495/4123元/吨，环比分别 +16/+111/+0/+62元/吨。②本周聚乙烯均价为7811元/吨，环比+34元/吨，乙烷裂解/CTO/石脑油裂解制聚乙烯理 论利润分别为1349/1932/58元/吨，环比分别+4/+19/-43元/吨。③本周聚丙烯均价为6990元/吨，环比-10元/吨 ...

行 基础化工 2025 年 08 月 24 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：万华化学 TDI 新装置投产，中国化学 国内单套规模最大粗苯加氢项目中交 投资要点： 本周行业主要动态： 万华化学 TDI 新装置投产。 万华化学 8 月 19 日公告，其福建工业园 新建 TDI 二期装置(36 万吨/年)已于近期建成投产，并产出合格产品。同时， 万华化学还披露，子公司匈牙利宝思德化学公司 MDI(40 万吨/年)、TDI(25 万吨/年)等一体化装置及相关配套装置于 7 月 23 日开始陆续停产检修。截 至目前，上述 TDI 装置的停产检修已经结束，恢复正常生产；MDI 装置待 复产后另行公告。公告称，按照年度检修计划，公司烟台产业园 30 万吨/ 年 TDI 装置及相关配套装置将于 8 月 19 日开始陆续停产检修，预计检修 40 天左右。万华化学全球最大的 MDI 和 TDI 供应商，截至 2024 年末，拥 有 TDI 产能 111 万吨/年。随着福建工业园新建 TDI 二期装置的投产，其 TDI 总产能进一步提升。（资料来源：中国化工报、万华化学） 中国化学国内单套规模最大粗苯加 ...

【DT新材料】 获悉，近期， 万华化学 发布7大项目新动态。 首先是，投产、停产方面，主要包括TDI和MS光学树脂 （1） 福建工业园新建TDI二期装置(36万吨/年) 8月19日，万华化学公告，公司 福建工业园 新建TDI二期装置(36万吨/年)已于近期建成 投产 ，并产出合格产品。然后，子公司 匈牙利宝思德化学公司 TDI(25万吨/年) 装置的停产检修已经结束，恢复正常生产 ， MDI(40万吨/年)装置待复产后另行公告。公司 烟台产业园 30万吨/年TDI装置及相关配套 装置将于8月19日开始陆续停产检修，预计检修40天左右。 截至目前，公司TDI总产能 达到147万吨/年。 据悉，就在前几天，另一巨头 科思创 近日向客户发出预警，8月将再次削减中国市场15%的供应量。据 了解，科思创目前在全球的三大TDI生产基地中，德国工厂因不可抗力持续停产，复产时间仍不明朗；美国工厂又将于9月进入为期一个月的计划检修 期；上海工厂也将在四季度开始超长周期的大修，这意味着科思创的供应紧张局面至少会持续到2026年2月份。 万华化学精准的投产，刚好可以填补科思创的空白期 。TDI的价格在经过7月的暴涨后，在8月中旬目 ...

2025年8月22日 证券研究报告 | 中观高频景气图谱（2025.8） 上游资源行业景气提振 策略研究 · 策略专题 证券分析师：王开 联系人：陈凯畅 021-60933132 021-60375429 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn chenkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 S0980523090002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 目录 01 中观超额收益追踪 图1：基础化工行业超额收益与燃料油收盘价 图2：基础化工行业超额收益与甲醇期货收盘价 图3：基础化工行业超额收益与聚氯乙烯期货收盘价 图4：基础化工行业超额收益与国产氯化钾批发价 图5：基础化工行业超额收益与尿素批发价 资料来源：万得，国信证券经济研究所整理。 资料来源：万得，国信证券经济研究所整理。 资料来源：万得，国信证券经济研究所整理。 期货收盘 价(连 续):燃料 油:月:平 均值:同 比 期货收盘 价(连 续):甲 醇:月:平 均值:同 比 期货收盘 价(连 续):聚氯 乙 烯 (PVC): 月:平均 值:同比 批发价: 国产氯化 钾:国内: 月:平均 值:同比 批 ...

买入（维持） [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 万华化学(600309.SH) 2025 年 08 月 22 日 所属行业：基础化工/化学制品 当前价格(元)：65.60 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 郝逸璇 邮箱：haoyx＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 46% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 万华化学 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 9.85 | 23.33 | 17.01 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 4.19 | 11.86 | 7.01 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 证券分析师 | [Table_Base] 股票数据 | | [Table_Finance] 主要财务数据及预测 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [13][15]. Core Viewpoints - The company has experienced a prolonged decline in stock price since February 2021, with earnings expected to fluctuate downwards from 2022 to 2024, and a projected 25.1% year-on-year decline in the first half of 2025. Currently, the company is at a low point in both performance and valuation. However, there are positive changes anticipated in the global and Chinese market environments, with the main products MDI/TDI expected to see an upturn in demand. The company has established a competitive moat in its petrochemical business, and a slowdown in capital expenditure may lead to sustained cash flow improvements. The company is focusing on a strategy of "focusing" and "operating" to solidify its advantages and promote a recovery [3][6][22]. Summary by Sections Market Environment Changes - The global and Chinese chemical industry leaders are facing a challenging period, but there are signs of positive changes in supply dynamics. Increased operational pressures have led foreign companies like Shell and Dow to exit certain capacities, resulting in a continuous optimization of supply [7][33]. MDI Market Outlook - MDI, primarily used in home appliances and real estate insulation, is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics. The demand for MDI in China is supported by the home appliance sector, and potential interest rate cuts in the US may boost real estate demand. The global MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with significant barriers to entry and a projected recovery in demand [8][51][59]. TDI Market Outlook - TDI, used in the production of foams and curing agents, is experiencing a supply shortage, leading to significant price increases. The domestic furniture industry's strong demand is expected to further drive TDI consumption [9][72]. Petrochemical Business - The company is enhancing its competitive edge through raw material advantages, with a successful launch of a new ethylene facility. The integration of the entire industrial chain is expected to significantly improve profitability in the petrochemical sector [10][12]. Fine Chemicals and New Materials - The company is focusing on its fine chemicals and new materials segment, which includes various high-value-added business units. The acceleration of self-developed technologies is expected to yield promising future growth [11][12]. Management and Cost Control - The company is implementing cost reduction and capital expenditure control measures, with a focus on improving operational efficiency. A planned investment of 25.24 billion yuan in 2025 indicates a significant reduction in overall investment scale, which may lead to improved cash flow and a decrease in the debt-to-asset ratio [12][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xin Yang Feng, Sen Qi Lin, Rui Feng New Materials, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Ju Hua Co., Yang Nong Chemical, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and Sai Lun Tire [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in industrial-grade lithium carbonate (up 22.06%) and sulfur (up 5.26%), while synthetic ammonia and butanone experienced substantial declines [4][20]. - The report suggests focusing on import substitution, pure domestic demand, and high-dividend opportunities due to the impact of renewed U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions affecting international oil prices [6][20]. - The overall chemical industry remains in a weak position, with mixed performance across sub-sectors, influenced by past capacity expansions and weak demand [23]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - Key products with notable price increases include industrial-grade lithium carbonate, sulfur, and urea, while synthetic ammonia and butanone saw significant price drops [4][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors like glyphosate, fertilizers, and high-dividend assets amid a challenging market environment [23][24]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The report notes fluctuations in international oil prices, with Brent crude at $65.85 per barrel and WTI at $62.80 per barrel, reflecting a downward trend [6][20]. - The chemical product prices have shown some rebound, but many products still face price declines, indicating a mixed market sentiment [23][24]. Company Focus and Profit Forecasts - The report recommends companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical, which are expected to enter a favorable economic cycle [8][23]. - It also highlights the potential of domestic fertilizer companies to meet local demand, with specific recommendations for companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Xin Yang Feng [23][24].

Group 1 - Company subsidiary BorsodChem Zrt. in Hungary has begun maintenance shutdowns for its integrated MDI (400,000 tons/year) and TDI (250,000 tons/year) facilities starting from July 23, 2025 [1] - The TDI facility's maintenance has been completed and is back to normal production, while the MDI facility will announce its resumption separately [1] - The company's Yantai industrial park TDI facility (300,000 tons/year) is scheduled for maintenance starting August 19, 2025, expected to last around 40 days [1] Group 2 - The new TDI Phase II facility (360,000 tons/year) at the Fujian industrial park has recently been completed and has started producing qualified products [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wanhua Chemical, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [5][20]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with TDI price increases anticipated to drive profit recovery [1][10]. - Wanhua Chemical's TDI production capacity is expected to reach 144,000 tons per year by May 2025, enhancing its competitive edge in the polyurethane market [10][12]. - The company is focusing on innovation and expanding its product lines, which is expected to create new profit growth points [11][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 175,361 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.9%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 245,163 million yuan, with a growth rate of 7.5% [1][12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 16,816 million yuan in 2023, declining to 13,033 million yuan in 2024, but recovering to 20,340 million yuan by 2027 [1][12]. - The company's EPS is expected to be 5.36 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 4.15 yuan in 2024, and then increasing to 6.48 yuan by 2027 [1][12]. Product Performance - In the first half of 2025, the revenue from the polyurethane, petrochemical, and fine chemicals segments was 368.88 billion yuan, 349.34 billion yuan, and 156.28 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of 4.04%, -11.73%, and 20.41% [2][4]. - The average market price for TDI in the first half of 2025 was around 12,400 yuan per ton, reflecting an 18.42% year-on-year decline [2][10]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the polyurethane segment was 25.68%, while the petrochemical segment experienced a negative gross margin of -0.37% [2][4]. - The average price of raw materials such as pure benzene decreased by 21.53% year-on-year, impacting overall cost structures [3][9]. Capacity and Production - In the first half of 2025, the production of polyurethane products was 2.98 million tons, an increase of 5.30% year-on-year, while sales rose by 12.64% to 3.03 million tons [4][9]. - The company successfully launched new production lines, including MS devices and specialty amines, which are expected to enhance its product offerings [11][12].