Core Insights - Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is a software company specializing in analytic, software, and digital decisioning technologies, with a market cap of $42.4 billion [1] Performance Overview - FICO has significantly underperformed the broader market, with stock prices dropping 25.8% over the past 52 weeks and 12.2% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 Index has returned 12% and 14% respectively [2] - The company also lagged behind the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund, which saw a 19.7% increase over the past 52 weeks and 20.3% year-to-date [3] Financial Results - Following the release of Q3 results on November 5, FICO's stock gained 2.8%. The company's topline for the quarter increased 13.6% year-over-year to $515.8 million, surpassing consensus estimates by 78 basis points [4] - Adjusted EPS for the quarter rose 18.3% year-over-year to $7.74, exceeding market expectations [4] Future Projections - For the full fiscal year 2025, analysts project an adjusted EPS of $33.66, reflecting a 34.3% year-over-year increase. FICO has a mixed earnings surprise history, missing estimates once and surpassing them three times in the past four quarters [5] - Among 18 analysts covering FICO, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," with 10 "Strong Buys," three "Moderate Buys," four "Holds," and one "Strong Sell" [5] Analyst Ratings - On November 6, JP Morgan analyst maintained a "Neutral" rating on FICO, raising the price target from $1,750 to $1,825. The mean price target of $2,005.56 indicates a 14.7% premium to current price levels, while the highest target of $2,400 suggests a 37.2% upside potential [7]

Core Insights - Baron FinTech Fund experienced a decline of 4.29% in Q3 2025, underperforming the FactSet Global FinTech Index, which declined by 1.90% [1] - Since inception, the fund has achieved an annualized return of 11.10%, significantly outperforming the benchmark's 4.00% return [1] - Market strength in the quarter was attributed to the resumption of Federal Reserve rate cuts and optimism surrounding AI technologies [1] Company Highlights - Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE:FICO) reported a one-month return of 7.47%, but its shares have decreased by 23.37% over the past 52 weeks, closing at $1,741.37 with a market capitalization of $41.286 billion as of November 14, 2025 [2] - Despite strong quarterly results and raised full-year guidance, FICO's stock underperformed due to regulatory pressures from the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which is advocating for increased competition in credit scoring within the mortgage market [3] - The company is expected to maintain its dominant market position and grow earnings per share rapidly due to price increases, a rebound in mortgage originations, and growth in non-mortgage consumer lending [3] Investment Sentiment - Fair Isaac Corporation is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 74 hedge fund portfolios holding its stock at the end of Q2 2025, up from 68 in the previous quarter [4] - While FICO is recognized for its potential, there are other AI stocks perceived to offer greater upside potential and lower downside risk [4]

Core Insights - Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) stock has experienced a significant decline of 9.8% in a single day, raising concerns about its valuation and potential overpricing [2] - The company has shown resilience during economic downturns, with a better performance compared to the S&P 500 index in terms of both decline magnitude and recovery speed [2][6] Company Overview - Fair Isaac is a data analytics company valued at $41 billion, generating $1.8 billion in revenue, and currently trading at $1,695.01 [5] - The company has reported a revenue growth of 14.7% over the past 12 months and maintains an operating margin of 44.2% [5] - FICO has a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06 and a cash-to-assets ratio of 0.08, indicating strong liquidity [5] Valuation Metrics - FICO shares are trading at a P/E ratio of 71.6 and a P/EBIT ratio of 50.5, suggesting a high valuation relative to earnings [5] - Historical performance shows that FICO shares have experienced significant declines in the past but have also demonstrated strong recovery, such as a 66.3% rebound within a year after a 30% drop [5] Historical Performance During Crises - During the 2020 Covid pandemic, FICO shares fell by 50.9% from a peak of $431.78 to $212.00, but fully recovered by July 2020 [8] - In the 2018 correction, shares decreased by 28.6% but recovered to pre-crisis levels by February 2019 [8] - The stock saw a dramatic decline of 76.2% during the 2008 financial crisis but managed to recover by March 2012 [8] - FICO's stock experienced a 38.2% decline from a peak of $552.88 in July 2021 to $341.44 in May 2022, yet it fully recovered to its pre-crisis peak by November 2022 [6]