Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (NASDAQ:ADPT) is among the Most Volatile Stocks. On February 6, 2026, TD Cowen upgraded Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (NASDAQ:ADPT)’s price target to $21 from $20 while keeping a Buy rating, citing a Q4 beat and an improved outlook. TD Cowen said that community adoption, new indications, pharma guidelines, EMR integrations, and a shift to blood-based testing were major driving factors. On February 6, 2026, BTIG maintained a Buy rating on Adaptive Biotechnologi ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total company revenue for Q4 2025 was $71.7 million, representing a 63% year-over-year increase, while full-year revenue was $277 million, reflecting a 55% growth compared to the previous year [20][21] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $4.1 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $16.4 million in the same quarter last year, and for the full year, adjusted EBITDA was $12.2 million compared to a loss of $80.4 million in 2024 [21][22] - The net loss for Q4 was $13.6 million, and for the full year, it was $59.5 million [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the MRD business, full-year revenue grew 46% year-over-year, with clinical testing revenue increasing 64% for the full year and 59% in Q4 [5][8] - clonoSEQ test volume reached 30,038 tests in Q4, up 43% year-over-year, with blood-based testing accounting for 47% of tests, an increase from 41% a year ago [8][9] - Immune medicine revenue was $9.8 million in Q4, up from $3.8 million a year ago, primarily driven by data licensing agreements with Pfizer [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The MRD pharma business saw a revenue growth of 20% year-over-year, with multiple myeloma accounting for roughly 70% of sequencing revenue [12] - The average ASP in the U.S. for clonoSEQ tests was $1,307, up 17% year-over-year, and the company expects to reach an average of $1,400 per test in 2026 [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to continue driving top-line growth while expanding margins, focusing on MRD revenue growth and profitability [14][27] - In immune medicine, the strategy includes advancing TCR antigen datasets and AI/ML modeling work, with a target net cash burn of $15-$20 million [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving strong sequential growth in Q1 2026 despite potential weather-related impacts on sample arrival [32] - The company anticipates clonoSEQ test volumes to grow by more than 30% year-over-year in 2026, supported by a shift towards blood-based testing and deeper community penetration [15][16] Other Important Information - The company ended the year with a strong cash balance of $227 million, excluding cash held by digital biotechnologies [24] - The MRD business is expected to generate between $255-$265 million in revenue for 2026, with a focus on maintaining disciplined spending and achieving positive adjusted EBITDA [25][26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on clonoSEQ volume trends and seasonality - Management noted that Q4 results indicate strong growth and that Q1 typically experiences some seasonality due to holidays and weather, but they remain confident in their guidance for the year [30][32] Question: Penetration rates in DLBCL and competition - Management highlighted that while DLBCL penetration is currently low, they are focusing on data generation, guideline advancements, and deepening pharma relationships to drive growth [34][36] Question: Competitor's flow cytometry assay and pricing - Management emphasized that their clonoSEQ assay is more sensitive than competitors' offerings, which positions them favorably in the market [41][43] Question: ASP pacing and payer negotiations - Management indicated that ASP growth is expected to be linear, with ongoing negotiations with key payers that could impact overall pricing [44][60] Question: EBITDA guidance for 2026 - Management clarified that they expect to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA by the end of Q4 2026, with MRD business already positive [48][49] Question: Community and blood-based testing growth assumptions - Management expressed confidence in the potential for further growth in both community and blood-based testing, with ongoing investments to drive these areas [50][52] Question: Monetization of immune medicine data - Management discussed the potential for additional data licensing deals and the value of their proprietary dataset in immunology applications [74][75]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total company revenue for Q4 2025 was $71.7 million, representing a 63% year-over-year increase, while full-year revenue was $277 million, reflecting a 55% growth compared to the previous year [20][21] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $4.1 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $16.4 million in the same quarter last year, and for the full year, adjusted EBITDA was $12.2 million compared to a loss of $80.4 million in 2024 [21][22] - The net loss for Q4 was $13.6 million, and for the full year, it was $59.5 million [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the MRD business, full-year revenue grew 46% year-over-year, with clinical testing revenue increasing 64% for the full year and 59% in Q4 [5][8] - clonoSEQ test volume reached 30,038 tests in Q4, up 43% year-over-year, with blood-based testing accounting for 47% of total tests [8][9] - Immune Medicine revenue was $9.8 million in Q4, up from $3.8 million a year ago, primarily driven by data licensing agreements with Pfizer [22][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The MRD pharma business saw a revenue growth of 20% year-over-year, with multiple myeloma accounting for roughly 70% of sequencing revenue [12] - The average ASP in the U.S. for clonoSEQ tests was $1,307, up 17% year-over-year, and the company expects to reach approximately $1,400 per test in 2026 [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to continue driving top-line growth while expanding margins, focusing on MRD revenue growth and profitability [14][27] - In 2026, the company expects clonoSEQ test volumes to grow by more than 30% year-over-year, with a significant shift towards blood-based testing [15][16] - The Immune Medicine business is focusing on generating large-scale proprietary immune receptor data and monetizing this data through partnerships [18][19] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving positive adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow by the end of 2026, with a focus on disciplined spending and operational efficiency [26] - The company is optimistic about the momentum in MRD and the potential for continued growth in the Immune Medicine sector [27] Other Important Information - The company ended the year with a strong cash position of $227 million, providing flexibility for future investments [22][24] - The company plans to maintain a disciplined capital allocation strategy, with a target net cash burn of $15 million to $20 million for the Immune Medicine business in 2026 [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on clonoSEQ volume trends and seasonality - Management acknowledged Q4's strong results and noted that Q1 typically experiences some seasonality due to holidays and weather, but they remain confident in achieving strong sequential growth in Q1 [30][32] Question: Penetration rates in DLBCL and competition - Management highlighted the importance of data generation, guideline advancements, and deepening penetration with pharma to increase market share in DLBCL, where current penetration is low [34][36] Question: Competitive flow cytometry assay and pricing - Management emphasized that flow-based methods are inherently less sensitive than clonoSEQ, which maintains a significant advantage in sensitivity for myeloma testing [40][42] Question: ASP pacing and payer negotiations - Management indicated that ASP growth is expected to be linear, with ongoing negotiations with key payers that could impact ASP realization [43][44] Question: EBITDA guidance for 2026 - Management clarified that they expect to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA by the end of Q4 2026, with MRD expected to contribute positively [46][47] Question: Community and blood-based testing growth assumptions - Management expressed confidence in the potential for further growth in blood-based testing and community penetration, with ongoing investments to drive these areas [50][51] Question: Monetization of the Immune Medicine data - Management discussed the potential for additional data licensing deals and the value of their proprietary dataset in various immunology applications [72][73]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total company revenue for Q4 2025 was $71.7 million, representing a 63% year-over-year increase, while full-year revenue was $277 million, reflecting a 55% growth compared to the previous year [19][20] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $4.1 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $16.4 million in the same quarter last year, and for the full year, adjusted EBITDA was $12.2 million compared to a loss of $80.4 million in 2024 [19][20] - The net loss for Q4 was $13.6 million, and for the full year, it was $59.5 million [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the MRD business, revenue grew 54% year-over-year in Q4, with clinical and pharma contributions of 67% and 33%, respectively [20] - clonoSEQ test volume increased by 43% year-over-year, reaching 30,038 tests in Q4 [20] - Immune medicine revenue was $9.8 million in Q4, up from $3.8 million a year ago, primarily driven by data licensing agreements with Pfizer [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The MRD pharma business saw a revenue growth of 20% year-over-year, with multiple myeloma accounting for approximately 70% of sequencing revenue [11] - The average ASP in the U.S. for clonoSEQ tests was $1,307, up 17% year-over-year, and the company expects to increase it to approximately $1,400 per test in 2026 [10][24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to continue driving top-line growth while expanding margins, focusing on MRD revenue growth and profitability [12][15] - In immune medicine, the strategy includes advancing TCR antigen datasets and AI/ML modeling work, with a target net cash burn of $15-$20 million [18] - The company plans to leverage its large-scale proprietary data for monetization through licensing deals, particularly in immunology applications [17][75] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving strong sequential growth in Q1 2026 despite potential weather-related impacts on sample arrival [31] - The company anticipates continued growth in clonoSEQ test volumes, with expectations of over 30% year-over-year growth supported by blood-based testing and deeper community penetration [13][14] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a strong cash position, ending 2025 with $227 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities [23] Other Important Information - The company achieved a 68% reduction in cash burn, indicating improved operational efficiency [6] - The MRD business is expected to generate between $255-$265 million in revenue for 2026, with a focus on expanding market presence and leveraging existing infrastructure [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the sequential step up in clonoSEQ volume and any seasonality? - Management noted that Q4 results demonstrated strong growth and that Q1 typically experiences some seasonality due to holidays and weather, but they remain confident in achieving strong growth in Q1 [30][31] Question: How should we think about penetration rates in DLBCL? - Management indicated that they are applying lessons learned from multiple myeloma to increase penetration in DLBCL, focusing on data generation and expanding commercial payer coverage [32][34] Question: Thoughts on a competitor's flow cytometry assay? - Management emphasized that flow-based methods are inherently less sensitive than clonoSEQ, which maintains a significant advantage in sensitivity for MRD assessment [40][42] Question: Can you elaborate on the EBITDA guidance for 2026? - Management clarified that they expect to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA by the end of Q4 2026, with MRD already contributing positively [46][48] Question: What are the expectations for ASP growth in 2026? - Management indicated that ASP growth is expected to be linear, with ongoing negotiations with key payers influencing the final rates [58][60]

Fourth Quarter and FY 2025 Earnings Conference Call © Copyright Adaptive Biotechnologies 2026. Safe Harbor This presentation has been prepared by Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation ("we," "us," "our," "Adaptive" or the "Company") and is made for informational purposes only. The information set forth herein does not purport to be complete or to contain all relevant information. Statements contained herein are made as of the date of this presentation unless stated otherwise. This presentation shall not cons ...

Core Insights - Adaptive Biotechnologies reported strong financial performance in 2025, achieving 46% revenue growth and profitability in its Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) business [2][10] - The company is well-positioned for continued growth in 2026, with a focus on disciplined capital allocation and expanding margins [2] Financial Performance - Fourth quarter 2025 revenue reached $71.7 million, a 51% increase year-over-year; excluding Genentech Agreement revenue, the increase was 63% [4][10] - MRD revenue for Q4 2025 was $61.9 million, up 54% from Q4 2024; Immune Medicine revenue was $9.8 million, a 34% increase [4][10] - For the full year 2025, total revenue was $277.0 million, a 55% increase from 2024; MRD revenue was $212.3 million (46% increase), and Immune Medicine revenue was $64.6 million (93% increase) [10][12] Operating Expenses and Profitability - Operating expenses for Q4 2025 were $84.5 million, a 4% increase from the previous year; for the full year, operating expenses decreased by 2% to $334.1 million [5][11] - The net loss for Q4 2025 was $13.6 million, significantly reduced from $33.7 million in Q4 2024; for the full year, the net loss was $59.5 million, down from $159.6 million in 2024 [6][12] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $4.1 million, a turnaround from a loss of $16.4 million in Q4 2024; for the full year, Adjusted EBITDA was $12.2 million compared to a loss of $80.4 million in 2024 [7][13] Business Segments and Developments - The MRD business achieved positive Adjusted EBITDA and cash flow, contributing 86% of Q4 revenue and 77% of full-year revenue [9][10] - The clonoSEQ test volume increased by 43% in Q4 2025, with 30,038 tests delivered, and a total of 105,587 tests for the year, up 39% [10] - The company signed two non-exclusive immune receptor data licensing agreements with Pfizer Inc. and received expanded Medicare coverage for clonoSEQ [9][10] 2026 Financial Guidance - The company expects MRD revenue for 2026 to be between $255 million and $265 million, with total operating expenses projected between $350 million and $360 million [14]

MRD Business Highlights - Adaptive Biotechnologies achieved approximately $212 million in MRD revenue for the full year 2025[20] - The company experienced a 53% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in pharma revenue[20] - Sequencing gross margins are approximately 65% in 2025[21] - Clinical volume growth shows a 44% CAGR from 2021 to 2025[22] - Over 50% of US heme-oncologists ordered clonoSEQ in 2025[22] - The company anticipates an average selling price (ASP) of approximately $1,400 per US clinical test in FY 2026[47] Immune Medicine (IM) Highlights - Adaptive Biotechnologies has generated over 5 million paired TCRs to antigen, significantly exceeding the 40,000 publicly available[52] - The company's Immune Medicine division had an annual cash burn of approximately $30 million in FY 2025, with a target to reduce it to $15 million to $20 million[60] Overall Company Goals - Adaptive Biotechnologies aims to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA and positive Free Cash Flow (FCF) for the whole company by the end of 2026[61]

Core Insights - Adaptive Biotechnologies reported a significant revenue growth of 55% for the full year 2025, reaching approximately $277 million, driven by strong adoption of clonoSEQ testing [6] - The company anticipates continued growth in 2026, focusing on maintaining leadership in MRD testing and expanding profitability [2] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q4 2025 was approximately $72 million, marking a 51% increase compared to Q4 2024 [6] - MRD revenue for Q4 2025 was around $62 million, reflecting a 54% increase year-over-year [6] - For the full year 2025, MRD revenue reached approximately $212 million, a 46% increase compared to 2024 [6] - Excluding regulatory milestone revenue, MRD revenue for the full year 2025 grew by 45% [6] - ClonoSEQ test volume increased by 43% in Q4 2025, totaling approximately 30,000 tests, and ended the year with about 105,600 tests delivered, up 39% from 2024 [6] - As of December 31, 2025, the company had approximately $227 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities [6] Strategic Outlook - The CEO emphasized the pivotal nature of 2025 for Adaptive, highlighting the acceleration in MRD business and clonoSEQ adoption [2] - The company plans to release complete financial results for Q4 and full year 2025 in February 2026 [2]

Core Insights - Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation is showcasing the increasing interventional use of its clonoSEQ test at the 67th American Society of Hematology Annual Meeting, with 90 abstracts featuring clonoSEQ data, including 17 that demonstrate its role in guiding clinical actions for blood cancer patient care [1][9] Group 1: Clinical Applications and Studies - The phase II EndRAD study supports the use of next-generation sequencing (NGS) measurable residual disease (MRD) status prior to allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) to select non-total body irradiation (TBI) conditioning approaches, showing excellent event-free and overall survival in 51 NGS MRD negative patients [2][3] - Across hematologic malignancies, clonoSEQ MRD status is utilized by healthcare providers to guide clinical decisions, with presentations demonstrating its application in tailoring treatment intensity and duration [3][9] - A phase III AURIGA study involving 200 newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (MM) patients showed that deep MRD responses correlated with improved progression-free survival, and intensified maintenance in MRD-positive patients post-transplant doubled MRD negativity rates [7] Group 2: Abstracts and Research Findings - A total of 32 abstracts on multiple myeloma will be presented, focusing on MRD assessment of treatment response and real-world data linking MRD status to clinical outcomes [7] - In non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), 15 abstracts will explore MRD to understand treatment response depth and guide therapy, including a study on de-escalating therapy in frail older adults with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) [7] - Data from a phase II study of 80 previously untreated chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients indicated that time-limited therapy achieved deep and durable remissions based on MRD assessment [8] Group 3: clonoSEQ Overview - clonoSEQ is the first FDA-cleared in vitro diagnostic test for detecting and tracking MRD in patients with multiple myeloma, B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia, and chronic lymphocytic leukemia, and is also available for other lymphoid cancers as a CLIA-validated laboratory developed test [10][11] - The test identifies and quantifies DNA sequences in malignant cells, detecting one cancer cell in one million healthy cells, providing standardized and sensitive results that inform treatment decisions and predict outcomes [11]

Summary of Adaptive Biotechnologies FY Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Adaptive Biotechnologies (NasdaqGS:ADPT) - **Focus**: Development of clonoSEQ, a test for minimal residual disease (MRD) monitoring in lymphoid cancers Key Industry Insights - **Gross Margin Improvement**: - Q3 saw a 2% increase in gross margins from approximately 63% to 65% due to the X transition - Expected further improvement of 5% to 8% over the next 12 months post-launch [2][2][2] - **Operational Efficiency**: - Continued focus on operational expenditures (OpEx) with emphasis on EMR integration and reimbursement workflows - Anticipated leverage from business growth without significant additional investments [3][3][3] Growth Drivers - **EMR Integration**: - Ranked as the largest contributor to growth, enhancing volume and operational stickiness - Over 165 integrated sites as of Q3, with 40% of volume flowing through EMR integrated processes [4][8][9] - **Blood-Based Testing**: - Increasing adoption of blood-based MRD tests, allowing for more frequent testing compared to traditional bone marrow tests - Blood tests can be conducted every three months, while bone marrow tests are typically limited to once or twice a year [10][12][12] - **Community Penetration**: - Ongoing efforts to increase market penetration in community settings, with significant growth potential [5][5][5] - **Guideline Improvements**: - Positive changes in clinical guidelines supporting MRD testing across multiple indications, expected to drive further adoption [5][5][5] Reimbursement and Coverage - **Mantle Cell Lymphoma (MCL) Coverage**: - Secured coverage for recurrence monitoring, allowing for up to five tests post-treatment every six months, significantly increasing potential lifetime value per patient [17][18][18] - **ASP Increase**: - Average selling price (ASP) increased from $1,717 to $2,007, facilitating renegotiation with private payers for better rates [20][21][21] - **Future Coverage Opportunities**: - Potential to expand coverage models similar to MCL for other indications like Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) [22][23][23] Competitive Landscape - **Unique Testing Approach**: - Adaptive's approach leverages unique biology of lymphoid cancers, focusing on VDJ rearrangements for MRD assessment, distinguishing it from competitors [32][33][33] Future Catalysts - **Blood-Based Testing and Community Growth**: - Continued emphasis on blood-based testing and community growth as strategic priorities [34][34][34] - **Data Generation and Clinical Utility**: - Ongoing data generation and improvements in clinical guidelines expected to enhance the relevance of clonoSEQ [35][35][35] - **Clinical Trials**: - Significant clinical trials, such as MIDAS, demonstrating the ability to avoid transplants in MRD-negative patients, are pivotal for future growth [36][36][36] Conclusion - Adaptive Biotechnologies is positioned for growth through strategic improvements in gross margins, operational efficiencies, and expanding market penetration, particularly in blood-based testing and community settings. The company is also focused on enhancing reimbursement strategies and leveraging clinical data to solidify its market position.