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Visa Inc. (V): A Bull Case Theory
Yahoo Finance· 2025-12-05 22:01
Core Thesis - Visa Inc. is viewed positively due to its strong financial performance, operational efficiency, and growth potential in the digital payments sector [1][2][6] Financial Performance - Visa reported Q4 and full-year FY2025 results with net revenue of $10.7 billion and non-GAAP EPS growth of 13% to $2.98 [2] - The company experienced a 9% increase in payment volume, indicating a shift from cash to digital payments [2] - Despite a $899 million litigation provision, non-GAAP operating expenses increased by only 8%, showcasing Visa's cost discipline [2] Growth Drivers - Cross-border transactions, Visa's most profitable segment, grew by 12% year-over-year, benefiting from increased international travel and e-commerce [3] - New payment flows and value-added services surged over 20%, contributing to Visa's "second growth curve" and expanding its integration with fintechs and enterprises [3] Capital Strategy - Visa maintained a shareholder-friendly capital strategy with $13.7 billion in buybacks and a 14% increase in dividends, supported by $23.9 billion in free cash flow for FY2025 [4] - Management has guided for low double-digit revenue and EPS growth for FY2026, indicating sustained earnings visibility [4] Valuation - Valuation frameworks suggest a forward P/E of 29–35x and a DCF-based intrinsic value of $315–$355, indicating that the stock is reasonably priced given Visa's growth and profitability [5] - Visa's scale, network effects, and role in global commerce position it as a valuable infrastructure provider in digital payments [5]