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Visa Stock Drops Under 200-Day SMA: Buy, Hold or Cut the Card?
ZACKSยท 2025-09-11 15:51
Core Viewpoint - Visa Inc. shares have recently shown bearish sentiment, slipping below key technical thresholds, including the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) [1][7][22] Price Performance - Over the past three months, Visa's shares have declined by 9%, underperforming the industry decline of 5.2% and the S&P 500's gain of 9% [5][7] - In comparison, Mastercard has decreased by 1.7%, while American Express has increased by 8.5% [5] Technical Analysis - The SMA is a critical tool in technical analysis, indicating longer-term price trends and potential fading buying interest when a stock falls below both the 50 and 200-day SMAs [2][7] Competitive and Regulatory Pressures - Visa faces competition from retailer-driven stablecoin payment systems and regulatory challenges, including an antitrust lawsuit from the U.S. Department of Justice and potential legislative changes like the Credit Card Competition Act [8][9] - Legal battles in the U.K. regarding merchant fees also add to the uncertainty [9] Valuation Metrics - Visa's stock is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 26.49X, compared to the industry average of 21.74X, which may temper near-term upside [10][12] - Mastercard trades at a higher valuation of 31.88X, while American Express is lower at 19.29X [12] Long-Term Growth Prospects - Visa's strong network effects and cash flows support its infrastructure and innovation, positioning it well for long-term growth [15] - The company is expanding into emerging channels like buy now, pay later (BNPL) and digital wallets, enhancing its growth prospects [15][16] Financial Performance - In the fiscal third quarter, Visa generated $2.8 billion in revenues from value-added services, a 26% year-over-year increase in constant dollars [16] - Visa returned $6 billion to investors in the last quarter, including $4.8 billion in buybacks and $1.2 billion in dividends [18] Analyst Sentiment and Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Visa's fiscal 2025 and 2026 EPS suggests year-over-year increases of 13.7% and 12.4%, respectively [19] - The consensus for fiscal 2025 and 2026 revenues indicates increases of 10.9% and 10.8% [19] Price Target and Market Outlook - Despite recent stock weakness, analysts maintain a positive outlook, with an average target price of $397, indicating a potential 15.4% upside from current levels [20][22]