Workflow
forgings
icon
Search documents
ATI(ATI) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-02-03 14:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q4 2025 revenue was $1.2 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $232 million, exceeding guidance [4][13] - Full year 2025 revenue totaled $4.6 billion, up 5% year-over-year, driven by 14% growth in aerospace and defense [4][13] - Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 exceeded $859 million, up 18% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS at $3.24, a 32% increase from 2024 [4][13] - Adjusted free cash flow totaled $380 million, up 53% from 2024, with $470 million returned to shareholders [4][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aerospace and defense revenue represented 68% of total revenue in 2025, up from 62% in 2024, with engine sales growing 21% [8][13] - Specialty energy business delivered 9% year-over-year growth in Q4, supported by multi-year customer commitments [8][9] - Full-year adjusted EBITDA margins increased to 18.7%, up from 16.7% in 2024, with HPMC margins at 23.6% and AA&S margins at 16.3% [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strong demand in aerospace and defense markets, with commercial aerospace demand accelerating [5][7] - Defense revenue grew 14% year-over-year, with missile sales up 127% due to increased government spending [8][9] - Projected double-digit growth in jet engines and continued strength in defense and airframe demand [8][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Company is focused on proprietary products and long-term agreements to expand market share and improve pricing [9][10] - Capital discipline and operational execution are central to the strategy, with a focus on unlocking capacity through productivity improvements [10][11] - Investments in differentiated nickel capabilities and modernization of melting systems are planned to support growth [11][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in customer demand and operational execution, guiding for $1 billion of adjusted EBITDA in 2026, a 16% increase year-over-year [5][18] - The company anticipates continued margin expansion, with full-year consolidated margins projected to be around 20% [23] - Management highlighted the importance of long-term contracts and differentiated materials in securing premium pricing and expanding market share [25] Other Important Information - The company plans to invest $220-$240 million in capital expenditures for 2026, focusing on proprietary engine alloys [10][19] - The backlog remains just under one year of revenue, with lead times for specialized materials extending [70] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expansion of capacity with customer support - Management explained that customer agreements ensure access to differentiated materials, allowing flexibility in capacity allocation [28][29] Question: Update on airframe growth and inventory situation - Management noted that airframe inventories are normalizing, with modest improvements in order rates expected in the second half of 2026 [31][62] Question: Breakdown of defense revenue growth drivers - Management provided insights into defense revenue, indicating naval and missile segments as key growth areas, with significant contracts in place [36][38] Question: 2027 guidance update - Management expressed confidence in the 2027 guidance, indicating a bias towards the top end of EBITDA margin expectations [42][44] Question: Pricing outlook for exotic alloys - Management indicated that pricing assumptions for 2026 are based on current market conditions, with significant movements in specialty alloys considered [55][56] Question: Staffing plans for 2026 - Management stated that headcount will remain stable, with some open positions to support new capacity, leveraging the current experienced workforce [90] Question: Growth in isothermal forgings - Management confirmed that isothermal forgings are in high demand, with lead times extending and continued growth expected [92][95]