Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview Humanoid Robot and EV Supply Chain - The conference focused on the China humanoid robot and EV supply chain sector, with meetings held from January 19-22, 2026, involving various companies in the robotics and automotive sectors [1] - Major component suppliers are preparing for the debut of Tesla's Optimus Gen 3 in the first half of 2026, with batch shipments expected in the second half of 2026 [1] - Suppliers for Unitree's humanoid robot anticipate significant year-over-year shipment growth in 2026, leading to over 100% growth in humanoid robot-related sales [1] - Key component manufacturers are increasing production capacity and expect cost reductions through mass production and product standardization [1] Auto/EV OEMs & Supply Chain Sales Trends and Cost Pressures - Weak auto and EV sales trends are continuing into January 2026, attributed to cuts in EV purchase tax subsidies and incomplete trade-in subsidies [2] - Chery plans to launch new models post-Lunar New Year in February 2026 [2] - BOM (bill of materials) costs for EV models are estimated to increase by approximately RMB4,500-5,000 due to rising prices of lithium carbonate, memory, copper, and aluminum [2] - Seyond expects price reductions in LiDAR, which may alleviate some cost pressures for OEMs [2] Battery Sector Growth and Cost Management - CALB and Gotion are targeting over 50% year-over-year shipment growth, aiming for 180 GWh and 150 GWh respectively in 2026, driven by ESS demand and electrification of commercial vehicles [3] - Both companies plan to expand their effective capacities to 200 GWh by 2026 [3] - Upstream cost pressures from lithium carbonate and LiPF6 are expected to be partially passed through to customers, with ESS customers more likely to accept price hikes than EV customers [3] Company-Specific Insights Wolong Electric - Anticipates humanoid robot-related revenue to double year-over-year in 2026, with a projected revenue of around RMB100 million from humanoid robots in 2025 [8] - The company is investing in a data collection center for humanoid robots, focusing on motion capture [8] ZD Leader - Expects humanoid robot-related revenue to increase from RMB50 million in 2025 to over RMB100 million in 2026, driven by orders from a leading local robot maker [9] - The average selling price of its planetary reducers is expected to decline in the long term [9] Changsheng Bearing - Currently, humanoid robot-related revenue accounts for less than 1% of total revenue, but significant growth is expected [10] - Management anticipates a 20% CAGR in the auto industry, supported by rising content value and market share gains [10] Precision Tsugami China - Achieved over 15,000 unit shipments of machine tools in 2025, with a revenue of over RMB5 billion [11] - Management expects over 10% year-over-year shipment growth in 2026, driven by demand from various sectors [11] Seyond - Projects over 1 million units of LiDAR shipments in 2026, with a focus on ADAS products [13] - Expects average selling prices to drop but gross profit margins to improve due to economies of scale [13] Inovance - Expects continued recovery in the factory automation sector, with strong demand from the battery and 3C sectors [14] - New businesses in robotics and industrial software are anticipated to drive long-term growth [15][16] Hengli Hydraulic - Aims for 20-30% revenue growth in 2026, with significant contributions from its partnership with Caterpillar [17] - Targets RMB300-500 million in sales from screw and linear guide business in 2026 [18] CALB - Targets over 180 GWh in battery shipments for 2026, with a focus on mid-to-high-end EV models [19] - Plans to increase production capacity to 200 GWh by 2026 and expects to pass through lithium carbonate price hikes to customers [20][21] JAC - Expects a net loss of RMB1.68 billion in 2025 but aims for 50,000 units shipment for its Maextro brand in 2026 [23] - The Maextro brand is expected to improve profitability in 2026 due to rising capacity utilization [23] Gotion Hi-Tech - Targets 150 GWh in battery shipments for 2026, with significant expansion in production capacity planned [27][28] Chery - Aims for 3 million units in volume sales for 2026, with a 50% penetration rate for EV sales [30] - Expects stable net profit per vehicle despite BOM cost increases [31] Bethel - Projects over 20% revenue growth in 2026, with a focus on new product introductions [32] - Anticipates relatively weak customer orders in the first quarter of 2026 [32] Conclusion - The conference highlighted significant growth opportunities in the humanoid robot and EV sectors, with various companies preparing for increased demand and addressing cost pressures through strategic planning and partnerships.

Summary of Key Points from the Research Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **humanoid robot industry** and its developments showcased at the **China Industrial Industry Fair (CIIF)** held in Shanghai on **24 September 2025** [3][4]. Core Insights - **Hardware vs. Software**: Hardware is not seen as a bottleneck for humanoid robots, with significant cost reductions in components. The price for dexterous hands has decreased from **RMB50-100k** to **RMB10-60k** per hand, with Linkerbot's offering at **RMB8.8k** per hand [3]. However, software remains underdeveloped, with key AI models still in training [3]. - **Cost Reduction**: Overseas companies like Nidec are relocating supply chains to China, which is expected to further reduce costs in components as mass production of humanoid robots begins [3]. - **Software Development**: Unitree's recent open-sourcing of its world model aims to enhance the software ecosystem for humanoid robots, particularly benefiting educational institutions [3]. Company Highlights - **Inovance**: Unveiled new humanoid robot products, including a robotic arm and various actuators. The company plans to start commercial production in **2026**, with an estimated actuator value of **RMB34k/unit** by **2030**. The global humanoid robot market is projected to reach **1.1 million shipments** by **2030**, indicating a market size of approximately **RMB37 billion** [4]. - **Preferred Picks**: Inovance, Hongfa, and Shuanghuan are highlighted as preferred investment choices due to their strong market positions and growth potential [5][9]. Stock Ratings and Valuations - **Inovance (300124 CH)**: Current price **RMB86.33**, target price **RMB96.00**, with an upside of **11.2%**. The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in factory automation [6][10]. - **Hongfa (600885 CH)**: Current price **RMB25.74**, target price **RMB39.10**, with an upside of **51.9%**. Strong earnings momentum is anticipated due to new car model launches [6][10]. - **Shuanghuan (002472 CH)**: Current price **RMB51.31**, target price **RMB58.00**, with an upside of **13.0%**. Growth in smart drive units and robotic reducers is expected to drive future performance [6][10]. Risks and Considerations - **Inovance Risks**: Weaker-than-expected demand in automation and intense competition could impact margins [10]. - **Hongfa Risks**: Potential risks include slower-than-expected relay demand and cost declines [10]. - **Shuanghuan Risks**: Risks include slower commercialization of humanoid robots and lower-than-expected market share gains [10]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of software development in the humanoid robot sector, indicating that while hardware costs are decreasing, the maturity of software solutions is critical for future growth [3][9]. - The anticipated growth in the humanoid robot market presents significant investment opportunities, particularly for companies that can innovate in both hardware and software [4][5].