Core Insights - Hedge funds and holding companies, traditionally exclusive, are now being approached by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that are adopting similar investment strategies [2][3] Group 1: ETF Strategies - ETFs are increasingly packaging investments into liquid, retail-friendly products that replicate hedge fund strategies, including futures-based exposure and options overlays [2] - Issuers are launching multiple funds that mimic the holdings of renowned investors like Warren Buffett and hedge fund strategies from figures such as Bill Ackman and Stanley Druckenmiller [2] - VistaShares has introduced three funds in the past year, including the VistaShares Target 15 Berkshire Select Income ETF (OMAH), which uses covered calls to generate monthly income from the top 20 companies owned by Berkshire Hathaway [3] Group 2: Performance and Trends - The OMAH fund has a significant expense ratio of 0.95% and maintains Berkshire Hathaway as its top holding at 10% [3] - According to Adam Patti, the CEO of VistaShares, Berkshire tends to lag in momentum markets but rebounds in value markets, indicating a strategic positioning with the OMAH fund [4] - Funds that mimic hedge funds using trend-following strategies are gaining traction, with the iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (DBMF) and Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF (CTA) being notable examples, having $2 billion and $1.2 billion in assets respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - Stifel projects a 9% upside for the S&P 500 in 2026 if the US economy remains stable, but warns of a potential 20% decline in the event of a recession [1][2] Economic Outlook - A recession is not the base case for Stifel or other major banks, with a 25% chance assigned to a downturn occurring next year [2] - The Federal Reserve has increased its growth forecast for 2026, indicating a more optimistic economic outlook [2] Labor Market Concerns - The labor market shows signs of instability, with rising unemployment and layoffs, which could lead to reduced consumer spending [3] - Consumer spending accounts for 68% of GDP, making its decline a significant concern for economic health [3] Stock Valuation Risks - Current stock valuations are historically high, with median pullbacks during recessions averaging 20% and average drops at 23% since World War II [4] - The S&P 500 is considered expensive, and P/E ratios may become critical in a downturn [4] Speculative Assets and Market Behavior - In the event of a bear market, speculative assets are expected to decline first, followed by the broader market [5] - A basket of seven highly-volatile stocks has already seen significant declines, indicating a shift in market sentiment [5] Defensive Investment Recommendations - Despite a positive base case for the S&P 500, Stifel recommends building hedge positions with defensive stocks [6] - Suggested funds for exposure to defensive assets include Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV), JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI), and iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (DBMF) [6]