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每周投资策略-20250616
citic securities· 2025-06-16 07:43
Group 1: Japan Market Focus - The Bank of Japan is expected to only marginally tighten monetary policy, with the maximum pressure from tariff issues having passed [9][14][20] - Kyocera is undergoing governance reforms, with expectations for accelerated restructuring and buyback plans ahead of the annual shareholders' meeting [20] - JR East is expected to see improved visibility and profitability due to upcoming fare increases and declining costs in real estate development [20] Group 2: Indonesia Market Focus - Indonesia's GDP growth significantly slowed to 4.87% in Q1 2025, with capital expenditure being a major drag on the economy [30][28] - The central bank has initiated interest rate cuts, with expectations for two more cuts this year to stimulate economic growth [33][31] - The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) remains undervalued, with a forward P/E ratio of 11.3x, indicating potential for growth as government reforms progress [35][34] Group 3: Philippines Market Focus - The Philippine economy is experiencing a slowdown, with Q1 GDP growth at 5.4%, prompting expectations for two more interest rate cuts by the central bank [49][48] - The PCOMP index is currently trading at a low valuation of approximately 10x forward P/E, making it one of the cheapest in Southeast Asia [52][50] - BDO Unibank and Bank of the Philippine Islands are showing stable growth, with BDO maintaining the lowest financing costs among major banks [53][52]