Core Viewpoint - iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) provides broad access to Chinese equities, focusing on large- and mid-cap opportunities in a diversified manner [1] Investment Proposition - MCHI employs a rules-based, market-representative approach that balances domestically oriented segments with globally integrated platforms [1] - The ETF reflects a blend of growth and value factors, including mega-cap consumer and communication platforms, financials, industrials, and healthcare, with income being a secondary objective [1] - MCHI can serve various roles in an investment portfolio, such as a core China building block, a satellite within an emerging markets sleeve, or a tactical vehicle for adjusting country weight [1] Market Sensitivities - Key sensitivities for MCHI include shifts in global risk appetite, currency movements, export demand, and the domestic policy cycle [1] - Regulatory changes can lead to factor whipsaw and style rotation, impacting performance [1] User Profile - Typical users of MCHI include multi-asset allocators seeking efficient country exposure and equity teams aligning top-down views with a liquid, rules-driven basket [1] Supportive Backdrops - Supportive conditions for MCHI include stable credit conditions, incremental reforms, and steady consumer demand [1] - Conversely, global de-risking or tightened policy can negatively impact the ETF [1] Key Risks - A significant risk associated with MCHI is the natural concentration in market leaders, which can heighten exposure to idiosyncratic headlines [1]

Core Insights - China's trade surplus reached a record $1.19 trillion in 2025, marking a 20% year-over-year increase despite high U.S. tariffs [1][10] - The trade surplus is equivalent to the GDP of a major economy like Saudi Arabia, emphasizing China's critical role in global supply chains [4] - Chinese producers diversified their export markets, leading to significant increases in shipments to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, which offset a 20% decline in exports to the U.S. [2][3] Trade Policy and Economic Factors - The record trade surplus is attributed to a strategic trade policy by Chinese manufacturers and supportive government economic policies [6] - The Chinese government subsidized high-tech sectors, including electric vehicles, solar energy, and semiconductors, enhancing global competitiveness [7] - A competitive yuan and strong global demand for Chinese green technology and electronics contributed to the expansion of China's trade footprint [8] Future Outlook - Continued exports of essential goods, including raw materials for green energy and semiconductors, are expected to sustain China's trade surplus in the coming years [9] - Goldman Sachs raised its GDP forecast for China to 4.8% and predicted the trade surplus to rise to 4.2% of GDP in 2026 [10][11] - The World Bank also increased its growth forecast for China in 2026 to 4.4%, anticipating further fiscal stimulus and resilient exports [11] Investment Opportunities - The record trade surplus highlights the potential for investment in Chinese exchange-traded funds (ETFs), particularly those focused on technology and export resilience [4][10] - Suggested ETFs include: - iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) with net assets of $8.16 billion, up 43.3% over the past year [15] - Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ) with a market value of $3.1 billion, up 51.9% [16] - VanEck ChiNext ETF (CNXT) with net assets of $55 million, up 74.4% [17] - iShares MSCI China Multisector Tech ETF (TCHI) with net assets of $47.09 million, up 44.5% [18]

Investment Sentiment - Billionaires show increased optimism for investments in Western Europe and China over the next 12 months, with 40% and 34% of respondents respectively identifying opportunities in these regions, compared to 18% and 11% in 2024 [2] - The Asia Pacific region, excluding China, also saw a rise in interest, with 33% of respondents expressing bullish sentiment, an increase of eight percentage points [2] - North America has seen a significant decline in popularity as an investment destination, with only 63% of respondents favoring the region in 2025, down from 80% in 2024 [2] Risks Impacting Investment Decisions - Tariffs are cited by 66% of respondents as a major factor likely to negatively impact the market environment in the next 12 months, followed closely by concerns over geopolitical conflicts (63%), policy uncertainty (59%), and higher inflation (44%) [3] Investment Preferences - The most favored asset class for billionaire investors over the next 12 months is private equity, with 49% planning to invest in direct private equity investments [5] - Hedge funds and public developed market equities are also popular, with 43% of respondents indicating intentions to invest in these areas [6] - Emerging market public equities (37%) and private equity funds (35%) follow as the next most popular investment choices, while there is a noted intention to withdraw funds from private equity compared to publicly traded stocks [6] Long-term Outlook - Despite changes in short-term investment outlooks, the long-term views for the next five years have remained relatively stable across most regions compared to 2024 [4]

Economic Growth - The Chinese economy grew at 4.8% in the July-September quarter, marking the slowest annual pace in a year and aligning with analyst expectations, attributed to trade tensions with the U.S. and weak domestic demand [1][7] - This growth rate is a decline from 5.2% in the previous quarter, representing the weakest quarterly growth since Q3 2024 [1] Trade Tensions & Export Data - Despite U.S. tariffs, China's overall exports remained resilient, with global exports increasing by 8.3% in September, the fastest growth in six months, while exports to the U.S. fell by 27% year on year [2] Property Sector & Consumer Weakness - The ongoing property market crisis in China has negatively impacted consumption and domestic demand, with residential property sales dropping by 7.6% in value during the first nine months of the year compared to 2024 [3] Future Projections - S&P projects new home sales to decline by another 8% year over year in 2025 and by 6-7% in 2026, indicating continued weakness in the property sector [4] - The World Bank predicts China's economy will expand by 4.8% in 2025, while S&P Global economists forecast GDP growth to slip to 4% year on year in the second half of 2025 [7] Monetary Policy Outlook - To address the slowing economy, China may implement policy easing, with Goldman Sachs suggesting a 10-basis-point cut in the key rate and a 50-basis-point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio [5][6] - The central bank's easing stance is seen as a response to deflationary pressures and the need to stimulate growth [6] Investment Opportunities - If rate cuts occur, high-growth tech stocks and ETFs such as KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) and Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ) may benefit, along with iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) and iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) [8] - Despite subdued retail sales momentum, FXI and MCHI have advanced approximately 23% and 28% over the past six months, indicating potential for further growth with any policy stimulus [9]