Summary of UBS Global Pharmaceuticals Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Pharmaceuticals, specifically focusing on GLP-1 (Glucagon-like peptide-1) market for obesity and type-2 diabetes (T2D) treatment Key Points and Arguments Market Forecasts - UBS has revised its 2030 global GLP-1 sales forecast from over $150 billion to **$130 billion**, with expectations of approximately **$80 billion** in sales for obesity and **$50 billion** for T2D [1][2] - Despite the downgrade, the GLP-1 and incretin market is projected to be a significant growth driver in global pharmaceuticals, with a **19% sales CAGR** from 2024 to 2030E [1] Patient Volume Growth - UBS forecasts that the number of patients taking GLP-1 will increase from **13 million in 2024** to **52 million in 2030**, representing a **26% volume CAGR** [2] - The obesity treatment category is expected to expand significantly, from **4.4 million patients in 2024** to **34 million patients in 2030E** [2] Pricing Dynamics - Price erosion is anticipated to be more significant in the obesity category compared to T2D, particularly in the US market [2] - In the US obesity market, UBS forecasts a **7.0% compounded price erosion** from 2024 to 2030E, compared to **4.7% for T2D** [2] Market Share Insights - The current duopoly of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly is expected to remain largely intact until 2030, with Eli Lilly projected to gain market share [3] - By 2025, UBS forecasts a market share of **51.5% for Novo Nordisk** and **48.5% for Eli Lilly**, shifting to **56.7% for Eli Lilly** and **38.9% for Novo Nordisk** by 2030 [3] Treatment Duration Challenges - Novo Nordisk reported an average treatment duration of **approximately 7 months** for Wegovy, with no significant improvement expected by 2030 [4] - The ability to improve treatment duration is seen as a key unmet medical need, as many patients may not experience the full health benefits without longer treatment durations [4] Financial Projections - The total global GLP-1 market sales are projected to grow from **$11.4 billion in FY 2022** to **$130.7 billion by FY 2030** [7] - US sales are expected to rise from **$7.8 billion in FY 2022** to **$87.6 billion by FY 2030** [7] Obesity and T2D Market Breakdown - The global GLP-1 sales for obesity are projected to increase from **$875 million in FY 2022** to **$79.5 billion by FY 2030** [8] - For T2D, global GLP sales are expected to grow from **$10.5 billion in FY 2022** to **$51.3 billion by FY 2030** [9] Additional Important Insights - The report highlights potential risks in the biopharma sector, including disappointing product launches, regulatory decisions, and biogeneric competition [10] - The investment landscape in small and mid-cap biotech is characterized by high volatility and is more suitable for investors with a high risk/reward profile [10] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the UBS conference call regarding the GLP-1 market, its growth potential, pricing dynamics, and competitive landscape, while also addressing the associated risks in the biopharma sector.