10 June 2025 | 1:10PM CDT Americas Food: NielsenIQ data thru 5/31: Solid total food sales growth, with continued pressure across most of packaged food Total food sales increased +2.8%/+3.2% y/y for R4/12-wks (in-line with the long-term trend of +LSD), driven by pricing and partially offset by lower volumes. However, we observed sales declines across most of our packaged food coverage, with HSY as the exception, noting support from pricing. Additionally, all companies within our coverage lost share in their ...

Core Insights - Campbell's reported a 1% organic net sales growth for fiscal 2025 Q3, with adjusted EBIT increasing by 2% and adjusted EPS at $0.73, reflecting a 3% year-over-year decline, while full-year adjusted EPS is now expected at the low end of prior guidance [1] Meals and Beverages Performance - The meals and beverages segment achieved a 6% organic net sales growth and a 2% increase in consumption, marking six consecutive quarters of positive in-market consumption [2] - Strong household penetration gains in condensed cooking soups were noted, particularly among millennial consumers, with mac and cheese marketing adding approximately 1 million new households, the largest quarterly gain in four years for this subcategory [2][3] Snacks Segment Challenges - The snacks division experienced a 5% decline in organic net sales, with a 3% drop in consumption attributed to category-wide contraction and company-specific execution issues [4][5] - Recovery prospects for the snacks segment are now pushed into fiscal 2026, with management focusing on price-point strategies, multipack offerings, and targeted innovation to preserve share and margin [5] Cost Management and Acquisition Integration - The company achieved approximately $110 million in cost savings towards a $250 million multi-year target, with the SOVOS acquisition integration unlocking additional efficiencies [6][7] - Despite a 110 basis point contraction in adjusted gross profit margin, disciplined cost controls enabled a 2% adjusted EBIT gain, and acquisition synergies positively impacted adjusted EPS [6][8] Future Outlook - Management reaffirmed FY2025 guidance, now expecting adjusted EPS at the low end of the range, with meals and beverages facing shipment-related headwinds and snacks' full-year operating margin projected at 13% [8] - The FY2025 cost savings target has been raised to $130 million, and the company anticipates capital expenditures at approximately 4.5% of net sales, with tariff-related impacts on adjusted EPS estimated at $0.03–$0.05 [8]

Summary of Kraft Heinz Company Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kraft Heinz Company - **Key Executives**: Carlos Abrams Rivera (CEO), Andre Maciel (CFO) Industry Context - **Consumer Health**: The year has been challenging for many companies, with unexpected pressures on consumer health due to high interest rates and inflation affecting various socioeconomic classes [5][6] - **Market Dynamics**: The company is focusing on providing value to consumers amidst economic pressures, emphasizing the importance of quality products at affordable prices [6][7] Core Business Insights - **Brand Growth System**: Kraft Heinz is implementing a proprietary system to enhance product quality, packaging, and marketing, aiming to better meet consumer needs [9][10] - **Product Innovations**: Introduction of family-sized mac and cheese packs priced at $2 to cater to families seeking value [11] - **Market Strategy**: The company is diversifying its channels, moving towards stadiums and leisure venues to improve margins and reduce reliance on restaurants [12] Financial Strategy - **Strategic Transactions**: The company is evaluating potential strategic transactions to unlock shareholder value, believing its stock is currently undervalued [14] - **Investment Focus**: Kraft Heinz plans to invest approximately $300 million in pricing strategies to maintain competitiveness without relying heavily on promotions [16][17] - **Marketing Investment**: The marketing budget is set to reach 4.8% of net sales, the highest in over a decade, to support product quality and communication [22] Operational Efficiency - **Productivity Initiatives**: The company has made significant investments in supply chain efficiency, technology, and marketing effectiveness, leading to improved ROI on promotions [53][54] - **Sustainability Efforts**: Kraft Heinz is reducing food waste in factories by 40% through improved operational practices [59] Regulatory Environment - **Government Regulations**: The company is proactively addressing potential regulations regarding artificial colors and SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) exposure, with a significant portion of its portfolio already compliant [66][70] Future Outlook - **Stabilization and Growth**: The company views 2025 as a year of stabilization, with ambitions for growth in 2026 and a return to performance targets in 2027 [74][76] - **Commitment to Investment**: Despite challenges, Kraft Heinz is committed to investing in its brands and operations to navigate the current market landscape [78] Additional Insights - **Employee Engagement**: The company has seen high employee engagement levels, indicating a strong internal culture focused on efficiency and ownership [72] - **Consumer Trends**: There is a bifurcation in consumer behavior, with premium products growing while value-seeking consumers are also significant [19] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the Kraft Heinz Company conference call, highlighting the company's strategies, market conditions, and future outlook.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has maintained a strong balance sheet over the past five years, aligning short and long-term incentives with shareholder value creation and maintaining a disciplined capital allocation policy [19][20] - The company reported a dividend of $0.40 per share and authorized a $3 billion share repurchase program through December 2026, indicating a focus on returning value to shareholders [59] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Emerging Markets, the company has achieved a 7% CAGR in top-line growth from 2022 to 2024, with nearly 175,000 new distribution points added since implementing the go-to-market model [8] - The North America Retail segment is facing challenges, but the company is prioritizing brands under pressure, such as Lunchables and Capri Sun, with new product innovations and marketing campaigns [11][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. Away from Home market is experiencing a slowdown, but the company is expanding its footprint and growing beyond ketchup, with partnerships like those with the Chicago Cubs and Hilton Hotels [9][10] - The company has consistently grown market share in the U.S. from 2021 to 2024, adding 16,000 new distribution points globally in Q1 of the current year [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on three strategic pillars: North America Retail, Global Away From Home, and Emerging Markets, with an emphasis on sustainable growth and brand investment [7][14] - The company aims to innovate and evolve its product offerings to meet consumer preferences, including gluten-free and dairy-free options, while maintaining a commitment to quality [16][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges market pressures but expresses confidence in the company's strategic direction and the strength of its brands [7][24] - The company anticipates inflation of 5% to 7% in 2025, primarily driven by commodity costs, and is embedding this into its guidance [55] Other Important Information - The company has achieved its highest employee engagement scores ever in 2024 and has been recognized as a great place to work in 22 countries [21][22] - The company has won multiple awards for its marketing campaigns, indicating a strong focus on creative excellence and brand building [15][16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Will Kraft Heinz commit to establishing new nutrition targets using recognized models? - The company acknowledges the lack of a globally aligned nutrition profile model but has established its own guidelines and is reviewing external models [52][53] Question: Is it a good time for acquisitions given the depressed stock prices in the food industry? - The company is always looking for portfolio management opportunities and has a strong balance sheet, but will maintain financial discipline in any actions taken [54][55] Question: Will Kraft Heinz reconsider commitments regarding cage-free eggs? - The company stands by its commitment to globally source cage-free eggs while working with suppliers to improve sourcing options [57][58] Question: When can shareholders expect a dividend increase? - The company recently declared a dividend of $0.40 per share and believes the share repurchase program provides better opportunities for returning value to shareholders [59] Question: Why is the stock price not performing well, and what is being done to correct it? - The company believes it is currently undervalued and is focused on executing its plans for 2025 and beyond to create opportunities for investors [60]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q1 2025 increased by 2% year-over-year to $123.8 million [17] - System-wide comparable restaurant sales increased by 4.4%, with company-owned restaurants up 4.7% and franchise restaurants up 2.9% [17] - Company average unit volumes were $1.31 million in Q1 [17] - Net loss for Q1 was $9.1 million, or a loss of $0.20 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $6.1 million, or a loss of $0.14 per diluted share in the previous year [19] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 was $2.4 million, down from $5.5 million in Q1 2024 [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Same-store sales increased by 4.7% in company-owned restaurants and 4.4% system-wide, driven by new menu items and marketing efforts [5][17] - Traffic increased by 1.8% and average check increased by 2.9%, including a 1.3% effective pricing increase [17] - Restaurant-level contribution margin decreased to 10.3% from 13.1% in Q1 2024 [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Easter holiday shift positively impacted Q1 comparable sales by approximately 50 basis points [17] - The company experienced a significant increase in brand awareness and digital engagement following the new menu launch [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational excellence and has implemented a comprehensive training program for staff to support the new menu rollout [6][7] - A major menu transformation was executed, with nearly two-thirds of the menu being new or improved, aimed at increasing brand relevance and customer engagement [10][12] - The marketing strategy has shifted to include broader reach awareness channels, such as connected TV and digital audio, to attract a wider audience [28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the sales momentum and the effectiveness of the new menu and marketing strategies, despite a challenging macroeconomic environment [5][16] - The company anticipates continued sales growth and improvements in cost management throughout the year [22] Other Important Information - The company plans to open two new company-owned restaurants in 2025 and close 13 to 17 company-owned and four franchise restaurants [24] - Capital expenditures for 2025 are estimated to be between $11 million and $13 million, significantly lower than previous years [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Marketing commitment and loyalty customer response to the new menu - Management indicated that marketing investment has been doubled for the new menu and is expected to continue at a high level [28] - Loyalty members have shown a strong response, with double-digit transaction growth noted [32] Question: Traffic trends since the menu launch and future plans - Traffic has remained strong, with over 5% growth since the menu launch, and management plans to maintain this momentum through continued execution [36][37] Question: Understanding margin pressures and one-time costs - Management acknowledged one-time costs related to the menu launch, including marketing and training expenses, but expects margins to improve as sales grow [41][43] Question: Free cash flow expectations - The company was slightly free cash flow positive in Q1 and anticipates being free cash flow positive in Q3 and Q4 [50][51]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q1 2025 increased by 2% year-over-year to $123.8 million [19] - System-wide comparable restaurant sales increased by 4.4%, with a 4.7% increase at company-owned restaurants and a 2.9% increase at franchise restaurants [19] - Company average unit volumes were $1.31 million in Q1 2025 [19] - Net loss for Q1 2025 was $9.1 million, or a loss of $0.20 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $6.1 million, or a loss of $0.14 per diluted share in the previous year [21] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $2.4 million, down from $5.5 million in Q1 2024 [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Same-store sales increased by 4.7% in company-owned restaurants and 4.4% system-wide, driven by new menu items and marketing efforts [5][19] - Traffic increased by 1.8% and average check increased by 2.9%, including a 1.3% effective pricing increase during the quarter [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Easter holiday shift from Q1 2024 to Q2 2025 benefited Q1 2025 comparable sales by approximately 50 basis points [19] - The company experienced a significant improvement in sales trends post-March menu launch, with a 5% increase through April [19][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational excellence and has implemented a comprehensive training program for the new menu rollout [6][7] - A significant menu transformation was executed, with nearly two-thirds of the menu being new or improved, aimed at increasing brand relevance and customer engagement [10][12] - The marketing strategy has shifted to include broader reach awareness generating vehicles, such as connected TV and digital audio, to attract a wider audience [30][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the foundation laid for future growth, citing strong sales momentum and strategic cost savings [18][23] - The company anticipates continued sales growth and improved margins as one-time costs related to the menu rollout are expected to normalize [45][46] - Full-year guidance for 2025 includes total revenue of $503 million to $512 million, with mid-single-digit comparable restaurant sales growth [24] Other Important Information - The company opened one new company-owned restaurant and closed three in Q1 2025, with plans to open two new company-owned restaurants in 2025 [22][25] - Capital expenditures for Q1 2025 totaled $2.9 million, significantly lower than $8.6 million in 2024 [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Marketing commitment and loyalty customer response to the new menu - Management indicated that marketing investment has roughly doubled, with a focus on broader reach awareness generating vehicles, and loyalty members have shown double-digit transaction growth [30][34] Question: Traffic trends since the menu launch and future plans - Management reported strong sales growth and maintained that traffic has remained robust since the menu launch, with plans to continue executing at a high level [39][40] Question: Understanding one-time costs and ongoing expenses - Management clarified that one-time costs included approximately $500,000 in marketing and $1 million in other menu rollout costs, with expectations for COGS to stabilize around 26% for the remainder of the year [46][48] Question: Free cash flow expectations - Management confirmed that the company was slightly free cash flow positive in Q1 and anticipates being free cash flow positive in Q3 and Q4 [54]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Organic net sales declined by 4.7% year-over-year, with price up 0.9 percentage points and volume mix down 5.6 percentage points [42] - Adjusted operating income decreased by 5.2%, while adjusted operating income margin increased by 30 basis points due to strong performance in emerging markets [44] - Free cash flow conversion improved by 9 percentage points year-over-year, reaching 65% [49] - Adjusted EPS declined by 10.1% to $0.62, impacted by a higher effective tax rate [49][57] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America organic net sales declined by 6.5%, with growth in Canada offset by lower sales in U.S. retail and away from home [42] - International developed markets saw a 1.7% decline in organic net sales, primarily due to a slowdown in the UK [43] - Emerging markets experienced a 3.9% increase in organic net sales, driven by recovery in Brazil [43][32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. away from home market faced challenges due to declining traffic, impacting total U.S. away from home business [14][31] - Emerging markets showed strong growth, with Heinz brand sales in these markets reaching over $1 billion [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on unlocking efficiencies and reinvesting in the business to drive brand and product growth [9][11] - A commitment to continuous improvement is emphasized, with a goal to unlock $2.5 billion in gross efficiencies by 2027 [10] - The brand growth system is being expanded to cover 40% of sales by year-end, up from 10% in 2024 [11][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged pressures from inflation and tariffs, leading to a revised outlook for organic net sales and operating income [7][54] - The company expects organic net sales to decline between 1.5% to 3.5% for the full year, reflecting worsening consumer sentiment [54][55] - Management remains optimistic about emerging markets, anticipating double-digit growth by the end of 2025 [43][54] Other Important Information - The company returned nearly $900 million to shareholders year-to-date, maintaining a net leverage target of approximately 3x [52] - Significant marketing investments are planned for 2025, with a focus on optimizing media spend and driving better returns [47] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for organic net sales in 2025? - The company has lowered its expectations for organic net sales to a range of down 1.5% to down 3.5% due to macroeconomic challenges [54] Question: How is the company addressing inflation and cost pressures? - The company is increasing investments in pricing and optimizing marketing spend to support brands and mitigate inflation impacts [46][55] Question: What is the outlook for emerging markets? - Emerging markets are expected to continue growing, with a target of reaching double-digit growth by the fourth quarter of 2025 [43][54]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Organic net sales declined by 4.7% year-over-year, with price up 0.9 percentage points and volume mix down 5.6 percentage points [42] - Adjusted operating income decreased by 5.2%, while adjusted operating income margin increased by 30 basis points due to strong performance in emerging markets [44] - Free cash flow conversion improved by 9 percentage points year-over-year, reaching 65% [49] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America organic net sales declined by 6.5%, impacted by lower sales in U.S. retail and away from home [42] - Emerging markets saw organic net sales growth of 3.9%, an improvement from 2.2% in the previous quarter [43] - Adjusted operating income in North America decreased by 9.4%, while in emerging markets, it increased by 20.3% [44][45] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. away from home market faced a downturn due to economic uncertainty, with traffic declining across the sector [29][31] - International developed markets experienced a 1.7% decline in organic net sales, primarily due to weakening consumer sentiment in the UK [43] - Emerging markets are expected to reach double-digit growth by the fourth quarter of 2025 [43] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on unlocking efficiencies and reinvesting in the business to drive brand and product growth [9][11] - A commitment to continuous improvement is emphasized, with a goal to unlock $2.5 billion in gross efficiencies by 2027 [10] - The brand growth system is being expanded to cover 40% of sales by year-end, up from 10% in 2024 [11][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged pressures from inflation and tariffs, impacting consumer sentiment and business operations [6][60] - The company has lowered its organic net sales expectations for 2025, now anticipating a decline of 1.5% to 3.5% [53][54] - Future guidance reflects increased costs and a wider range of uncertainty due to macroeconomic dynamics [55] Other Important Information - The company returned nearly $900 million to shareholders year-to-date, maintaining a net leverage target of approximately 3x [52] - Adjusted EPS is expected to be in the range of $2.51 to $2.67, reflecting changes in organic net sales and operating income estimates [56] - The company is investing in strategic areas, including marketing efficiency and brand support, to drive growth [47] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for organic net sales in 2025? - The company now expects organic net sales to decline by 1.5% to 3.5%, a revision from previous expectations of flat to down 2.5% [53][54] Question: How is the company addressing inflation and consumer sentiment challenges? - The company is focusing on unlocking efficiencies, optimizing marketing spend, and increasing investments in pricing to support brands [46][60] Question: What is the outlook for emerging markets? - Emerging markets are expected to continue growing, with a target of reaching double-digit growth by the fourth quarter of 2025 [43]