乌克兰政府通过其官网公布的两项决议表示，已将对俄罗斯商品的进口禁令延长一年。 第一项决议将 部分俄罗斯商品的进口禁令延长至2026年12月31日，第二项决议则将针对俄罗斯产品的关税征收期限延 长相同时长。这两项决议均于2015年通过，此后已被多次延期。 被禁商品包括肉类、鱼类、咖啡、茶 叶、巧克力及其他糖果制品、婴幼儿食品、动物饲料、酒类和香烟。该禁令同时适用于数类工业制品、 交通工具、化肥及农产品。 ...

Cocoa prices jumped a lot last year but are now dropping fast. Still, chocolate prices in stores are not going down anytime soon. Last year, cocoa futures almost tripled, forcing chocolate makers to raise prices. They are still using cocoa bought at those high prices. Some chocolate makers even changed their recipes to cut costs. These changes are not easy to reverse, so prices remain high. Experts say cheaper cocoa may only reach stores in the second half of next year, and it is not guaranteed. Jonathan P ...

Core Insights - Cocoa futures nearly tripled last year, leading to significant cost increases for manufacturers, who subsequently raised chocolate prices [1][4][12] - The chocolate industry is currently facing high cocoa prices, with expectations for cheaper cocoa to only impact retail prices in the second half of next year [1][9][10] Industry Impact - The surge in cocoa prices has caused distress across the industry, affecting both large packaged food companies and small chocolatiers, with some struggling for survival [4][6] - Lambertz, a historic German confectioner, reported an additional €150 million ($176 million) in annual costs due to high cocoa prices, equating to one-fifth of last year's revenue [6][7] - Many producers are passing costs onto consumers while accepting a loss in sales volume, indicating a challenging market environment [7][10] Market Dynamics - Cocoa prices peaked at nearly $13,000 per ton last year but have since dropped by about 50%, marking the steepest annual decline since 1960 [1][9] - Despite recent price drops, major chocolate manufacturers remain cautious about signaling changes due to ongoing market volatility [9][10] - Analysts have reduced their cocoa surplus expectations, contributing to the current price stabilization around $6,000 per ton [9][10] Supply Chain Challenges - West African cocoa supply remains unstable, with smallholder farmers facing chronic underfunding and lack of resources to adapt to climate change [10] - Barry Callebaut AG's CEO highlighted the long-term structural challenges in cocoa farming, emphasizing the need for investment [10] Product Adjustments - In response to high cocoa prices, companies are altering recipes, such as reducing cocoa content or portion sizes, which may become permanent changes [12][14] - Examples include Milka chocolate bars becoming 10% lighter while prices increased by about 25%, and some UK chocolate bars no longer qualifying as "chocolate" due to ingredient changes [12][14]

Barry Callebaut AG (BYCBF) (BRRLY) is reportedly evaluating a separation of its global cocoa division from its core chocolate business, primarily to reduce exposure to extreme cocoa price volatility and sharpen focus on higher-margin chocolate activities. Sources indicated that the ...

Shares of Swiss-Belgian chocolate maker Barry Callebaut climbed sharply on Monday after a Reuters report said the company is exploring options to separate its cocoa processing division, a move that co... ...

Core Insights - Cocoa futures have dropped to their lowest level in nearly two years, providing a potential margin boost for chocolate manufacturers facing high ingredient costs and price-sensitive consumers [1][2] - The decline in cocoa prices comes at a critical time as seasonal demand for chocolate typically increases during the holiday season, which could lead to improved earnings for companies like Hershey, Mondelez, and Nestlé [2][5] Industry Overview - The recent fall in cocoa prices follows a significant rally earlier in the year, where prices reached record highs, making cocoa one of the largest input expenses for chocolate makers [2][4] - Companies in the chocolate and confectionery sector have been dealing with challenges such as packaging inflation and margin compression, but the drop in cocoa prices offers a chance to either maintain pricing power or implement promotional discounts [4] Seasonal Demand Dynamics - The holiday season, particularly between Thanksgiving and New Year's, is a peak time for chocolate demand, which historically supports confectionery earnings [5] - The combination of seasonal demand and falling cocoa prices could lead to positive earnings revisions in early 2026 if companies can stabilize volume [5] Consumer Behavior and Market Sentiment - There is a cautionary note regarding the decline in cocoa prices, as it may reflect weakening global demand rather than just supply normalization [6] - Investors are advised to look for tangible evidence of unit growth rather than relying solely on seasonal narratives, as consumer hesitance may impact demand recovery [6][7] Investment Outlook - If chocolate manufacturers can achieve even modest margin improvements alongside steady seasonal demand, the current cocoa price drop could lead to unexpected profits [7] - The market is currently observing which companies will effectively capitalize on the lower cocoa prices to enhance profitability [7]

Core Insights - Cocoa futures have dropped to their lowest level in nearly two years, providing a potential margin boost for chocolate manufacturers facing high ingredient costs and price-sensitive consumers [1][2] - The decline in cocoa prices comes at a critical time as seasonal demand for chocolate typically increases during the holiday season, which could lead to improved earnings for companies like Hershey, Mondelez, and Nestlé [2][5] Industry Overview - The recent fall in cocoa prices follows a significant rally earlier in the year, where prices reached record highs, making cocoa one of the largest input costs for chocolate makers [2][4] - U.S.-listed chocolate and confectionery companies are now under investor scrutiny as they navigate through a year of inflation in packaging and margin compression [3][4] Market Dynamics - The holiday season, particularly between Thanksgiving and New Year's, is crucial for chocolate sales, and the combination of seasonal demand with lower cocoa prices could enhance profitability if companies manage to stabilize volume [5] - However, there are concerns regarding softening global demand for cocoa, which may affect consumer behavior and overall sales performance [6] Investor Sentiment - Investors are looking for evidence of unit growth and margin improvement from chocolate makers, as the current cocoa price drop could lead to unexpected profits if managed effectively [7] - The market is cautious, as cheaper cocoa alone may not resolve underlying demand issues, and companies need to demonstrate real growth to attract investor confidence [6][7]

Core Points - President Trump's new executive order exempts over 100 food and grocery items from reciprocal tariffs, which is seen as a common-sense approach given the U.S. does not produce many of these items domestically [1][2] - The focus on inflation is highlighted, with a specific mention of the inflation rates under Biden compared to Trump, indicating a significant increase in grocery prices and overall inflation during Biden's administration [4][8] - The discussion includes the complexities of beef pricing compared to chicken, emphasizing the longer supply chain for beef and its susceptibility to factors like drought [5][6] Inflation and Economic Growth - Cumulative inflation under Biden is reported at 21.3%, while under Trump it was about 3% [8] - Grocery prices have increased nearly 24% under Biden compared to 2.7% under Trump [8] - Wage growth is noted to be outpacing inflation this year, with a 4.2% rise in wages versus approximately 3% inflation [8][9] - Concerns are raised about the potential impact of the Schumer shutdown on GDP growth, estimating a reduction of 1 to 1.5 percentage points [10] Policy and Messaging - The importance of addressing inflation and affordability is emphasized, with a commitment to explain sector-specific improvements [10][11] - The healthcare sector is critiqued for benefiting middlemen rather than directly aiding consumers, indicating a need for reform [12]

Core Insights - Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) faced significant challenges in Q3 2025 due to record-high cocoa costs, resulting in a $796 million drop in adjusted gross profit at constant currency and a sharp decline in adjusted gross profit margin to 30.4%, down 1,010 basis points [1][9]. Group 1: Cocoa Costs and Profitability - The decline in adjusted gross profit and margins was primarily driven by increased raw material and transportation costs, along with an unfavorable product mix [2][9]. - The company indicated that Q3 represented the peak of cocoa inflation for the year, with recent signs of cocoa prices beginning to moderate due to a stronger crop [2][9]. Group 2: Pricing Strategies and Consumer Sensitivity - Despite the potential for lower cocoa prices to alleviate some pressure, earlier price hikes, particularly in Europe where chocolate prices rose by about 30%, have made consumers more price-sensitive, with elasticity increasing to approximately 0.7 to 0.8 [3][9]. - To address this sensitivity, Mondelez is adjusting pack sizes and resetting price points to make products more appealing to consumers [3]. Group 3: Promotional Challenges and Productivity - Mondelez faced challenges with promotional efforts that did not meet expectations, compounded by retailer margin pressure and shifts in consumer shopping behavior [4]. - The company emphasized the importance of productivity, noting that cost savings in manufacturing and overhead helped mitigate the impact in Q3, and continued progress in this area will be crucial for 2026 [4][5]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Performance - Mondelez's shares have declined by 8.2% over the past three months, underperforming the industry decline of 7.6% and the broader Consumer Staples sector's drop of 5% [6]. - The company currently trades at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 17.9, above the industry average of 14.66, raising concerns about the justification of this multiple given the uncertain pace of margin recovery and ongoing cost pressures [10].

Trade Deal Overview - The U.S. and Switzerland are nearing a trade deal to reduce tariffs imposed by President Trump from 39% to potentially 15% [1][2] - The reduction aims to align Swiss tariffs with those imposed on EU exports to the U.S. [2] Economic Impact - The high tariffs have negatively affected Swiss exports, particularly in key sectors such as watches, jewelry, machinery, chocolate, electronics, and pharmaceuticals [4] - Shares of Swiss companies, including Swatch Group and Richemont, saw an increase following news of the potential tariff reduction [4] Government Response - Swiss officials, including Economy Minister Guy Parmelin, are in regular contact with U.S. authorities regarding the ongoing discussions [3] - The Swiss economy ministry has refrained from commenting on the negotiations, indicating a cautious approach [3]